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Meat production on the rise in former Soviet Union countries

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Former Soviet Union countries, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan experienced significant contractions in meat production in the 1990s and early 2000s. This trend reversed since 2005, with meat production over 70 percent greater in 2011-15 than the low point in 2001-05. The move from a centrally planned to a market based economy in the 1990s upended the growth of the livestock sector. Because of severe financial constraints, the large budget subsidies to agriculture—and especially the previously favored livestock sector—were mostly terminated, which led to reduced production. Aided by renewed subsidies and other policies beneficial to the industry, the livestock sector in these countries rebounded. From 2000 to 2015, average annual meat production rose in Kazakhstan (39 percent), Russia (116 percent), and Ukraine (50 percent). This chart appears in the ERS report Changing Crop Area in the Former Soviet Union Region released in February 2017.

Asia and Western Hemisphere propel growth in U.S. agricultural exports

Thursday, September 1, 2016

U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at a record $149.5 billion in fiscal 2014 (year ending September 30), $8.6 billion above 2013, with exports to Asian and Western Hemisphere countries accounting for most of the growth. China is forecast to remain the largest U.S. market, with U.S. sales expected to rise from $23.5 billion in fiscal 2013 to $28 billion in fiscal 2014. Other Asian markets forecast to show significant growth include Hong Kong, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand. In the Western Hemisphere, exports to Canada (the second largest U.S. market) are expected to rise marginally to $21.6 billion, while exports to Mexico (the third largest) are forecast to rise to $18.6 billion. U.S. export growth is also forecast for South America, including Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Higher income growth and a lower U.S. exchange rate are expected to support continued growth in U.S. exports, especially within the Western Hemisphere. Although slower income growth is anticipated for China in 2014, demand for agricultural goods is expected to remain robust. This chart is based on data found in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

India close to becoming world's largest cotton producer

Thursday, September 1, 2016

India?s cotton production has expanded rapidly since the early 2000s, passing the United States to become the world?s 2nd largest producer in 2006/07 (August/July marketing year), and now poised to surpass China?the world?s largest producer. India?s cotton production began to expand with the introduction of genetically-modified Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton; higher yield potential and increased pest resistance boosted profitability and stimulated growth in both area and yields. Since 2000/01, India?s cotton area has increased about 2.8 percent annually and is now more than double the area sown to cotton in China and more than triple U.S. cotton area. However, India?s cotton yields, while improving about 6 percent annually since 2000/01 to an average of 530 kgs/ha during 2009/10-2013/14, remain well below those achieved in China (1,357 kgs/ha) and the United States (916 kgs/ha). With gains in production, India has emerged as the world?s second largest exporter of raw cotton, after the United States, and the second largest consumer of raw cotton, after China. Cotton processed in India is destined for its large domestic market as well as exports of cotton yarn, fabric, and clothing.? Find additional analysis of cotton market developments in Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2014.

China's agricultural subsidies rise following establishment of general-input subsidy program

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China?s expansion of agricultural support is driven by a mix of factors, including a campaign to ?modernize? agriculture by inducing adoption of modern inputs and increased investment, concerns about rural-urban income inequality, and concerns about maintaining ?food security.? Growth in subsidy payments reflects the strategy of increasing subsidies annually. Most of the growth in payments is in the ?general-input subsidy? that aims to offset rising production costs in order to maintain net returns to grain producers. From 2004 to 2012, the direct payment to grain producers grew marginally. During the same period, the improved-seed subsidy increased tenfold to $3.4 billion by adding more crops and extending the geographic coverage of the program. The machinery-purchase subsidy was increased by an even greater margin, reaching $3.1 billion in 2012. However, increase in expenditure on the general-input subsidy exceeded the combined growth of these other subsidies and it was the dominant type of direct-subsidy expenditure in 2012. Central Government policies describe a ?dynamic adjustment mechanism? indicating that the general-input subsidy is determined by increases in prices of grain, fertilizer, fuel, and other inputs to keep net returns to grain producers from falling. This chart can be found in Growth and Evolution in China?s Agricultural Support Policies, ERR-153.

Editor's Pick 2014, #1:<br>China's net grain imports surge in 2012 and 2013

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China?s demand for imported grains, much of it from the United States, has surged recently, with imports of cereal grains rising to 16 million tons in 2012 and 18 million in 2013. Imports in 2013 included 3 million tons of corn and 4 million tons of DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles; a co-product of U.S. corn ethanol production used for feed) from the United States.? In 2013, the United States supplied 70 percent of China?s wheat imports and, for the first time, China became a major market for U.S. sorghum. China?s demand for feed grains appears to have reached a turning point, as a tightening labor supply and rising feed costs force structural change in China?s livestock sector. Labor scarcity, animal disease pressures, and rising living standards are prompting rural households to abandon ?backyard? livestock production and shift more production to specialized farm enterprises that rely more heavily on commercial feed. Because of this, China has switched from being a corn exporter to importing 3-5 million tons annually since 2009. Rising feed demand has also pushed up costs and motivated feed mills and livestock producers to explore new feed ingredients like DDGS and sorghum. Find this chart and additional analysis in "China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed" in the April Amber Waves. Originally published Thursday May 22, 2014.

International agricultural productivity growth remains uneven across countries

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) is the difference between the aggregate total output of crop/livestock commodities and the combined use of land, labor, capital and material inputs employed in farm production. Growth in TFP implies that the adoption of new technology or improved management of farm resources is increasing average productivity or efficiency of input use. Worldwide, agricultural TFP grew at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent during of 2002-11, the latest decade for which figures are available. However, not all countries are achieving growth in agricultural TFP. Among developing countries, some large countries like China and Brazil are improving their agricultural TFP rapidly, but many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are lagging behind. Most developed countries are continuing to achieve moderate rates of agricultural TFP growth, but some, such as the UK and Australia, have experienced a slowdown in TFP growth. Maintaining growth in agricultural TFP is necessary for achieving global food security goals and could help preserve natural resources. This map is based on data from ERS? International Agricultural Productivity accounts.

Per capita food spending varies more internationally than per capita food availability

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Per capita food-at-home spending differs widely across countries. For example, in 2011 food-at-home spending was $2,239 per person in the United States, $452 in lower middle-income Cameroon, and just $276 in low-income Kenya. However, higher food spending does not always translate into higher food consumption. South African consumers, for example, spent more per person on at-home foods than Chinese consumers, but per person calories available for consumption were about the same in both countries. Japanese consumers outspent U.S. consumers on at-home foods, but per person calorie availability in Japan was lower. At-home food spending reflects general food price levels, prices for the particular foods purchased (grains versus meats), and, for higher income countries, the mix of at-home and away-from-home eating. While the average consumer in the United States spends more than 8 times as much on food at home as the average person in Kenya, per capita calorie availability is less than 80 percent higher. All eight countries had per capita calorie availability over 2,000 per day, but averages can mask large differences in food spending, access, and consumption within a country. This chart is based on data from the ERS Food Expenditures data product, updated October 2012.

Strong expansion seen for Brazil's soybean exports after big crops

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Although the USDA estimate of Brazil?s record 2012/13 soybean crop has been lowered to 82 million tons, strong expansion of Brazil?s soybean exports is forecast for 2012/13 and 2013/14. Brazil?s soybean exports are forecast to surpass those of the United States in both 2012/13 and 2013/14, making Brazil the world?s largest soybean exporter in both years. Despite lower yield expectations for the 2012/13 crop, export prospects have improved as extended weekday operations at major ports have trimmed a backlog of soybean exports. As a result of the enhanced capacity, soybean exports for the country set a monthly record in May at 7.95 million tons and more large monthly shipments are expected to follow. USDA forecasts Brazil?s 2012/13 soybean exports at a record 37.9 million tons and 2013/14 exports at another record of 41.5 million tons. This chart is adapted from one found in the Oil Crops Chart Gallery.

Labor costs drive increases in costs of grain production in China

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Available Chinese data indicate that average cash expenses rose during 2003-11 by $190 to $220 per acre for corn, wheat, and long-grain rice, while expenses for short-grain rice rose by nearly $400 per acre. While discussion tends to focus on increases in cash expenses for inputs like fertilizer and fuel, the increase in production costs has been more broadly based. The data show that the implicit cost of unpaid family labor was the dominant component of farm production costs. The imputed cost of family labor rose from $94 per acre to $244 per acre during 2003-11, a reflection of rising wages and opportunity costs of farm labor. Other inputs that are the object of subsidy programs?seeds and mechanized services?also contributed to increases in production costs. Overall, the increases in production expenses far exceeded the increase in subsidy payments during that period. Growth in off-farm work opportunities poses the biggest challenge to maintaining agricultural output. As prospective off-farm wages rise, farmers require higher net returns to induce them to continue planting crops or raising livestock.? This chart can be found in Growth and Evolution in China?s Agricultural Support Policies, ERR-153.

Editor's Pick 2013, #1:<br>U.S. agricultural exports to China grow despite increases in China's domestic farm support

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China has been an important source of recent growth in U.S. agricultural exports, and there has been concern about the implications of recent increases in China?s domestic farm support. While it is often presumed that subsidies and price supports give Chinese farmers an advantage, these policies actually may improve prospects for U.S. agricultural exports by raising costs and prices of Chinese commodities above international levels. As a World Trade Organization (WTO) member, China agreed to relatively low tariffs and eliminated most barriers to imports apart from tariff rate quotas for several types of cereal grains, cotton, and sugar. Consequently, as China raises domestic price supports above international prices, the country tends to attract more imports. As a result, China today is a net importer of the commodities that are the main targets of its domestic support programs?grains, oilseeds and cotton. This chart can be found in Growth and Evolution in China?s Agricultural Support Policies, ERR-153. Originally published on Tuesday, August 13, 2013.

Global soybean market outlook turns toward Brazil's large impending crop

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Although robust demand has recently supported soybean prices, the 2013/14 (October/September) soybean market outlook now hinges on the impending large crop forecast in Brazil, the world?s second-largest producer after the United States. The Brazilian forecast indicates a widening gap between soybean production and total use (crush plus exports), which may signal lower prices ahead. High prices are contributing to increased soybean area in Brazil, leading USDA to raise its 2013/14 soybean production forecast for Brazil to 89 million metric tons. The new forecast is up 1 million tons from the previous forecast, is well above last year?s record crop of 82 million, and is nearly equal to this year?s U.S. harvest of 89.5 million. Although abundant rainfall has created favorable growing conditions for Brazil?s 2013/14 soybean crop, the yield forecast is unchanged this month, with another 8-10 weeks of good weather needed if yields are to match or surpass the country?s 2010/11 yield record. While part of the increase in Brazilian supplies is expected to boost the country?s 2013/14 soybean crush and exports, the current outlook indicates a substantial increase in stocks.? This chart can be found in the Oil Crops Chart Gallery, with supporting analysis in Oil Crops Outlook: January 2014.

China's net grain imports surge in 2012 and 2013

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China?s demand for imported grains, much of it from the United States, has surged recently, with imports of cereal grains rising to 16 million tons in 2012 and 18 million in 2013. Imports in 2013 included 3 million tons of corn and 4 million tons of DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles; a co-product of U.S. corn ethanol production used for feed) from the United States.? In 2013, the United States supplied 70 percent of China?s wheat imports and, for the first time, China became a major market for U.S. sorghum. ??China?s demand for feed grains appears to have reached a turning point, as a tightening labor supply and rising feed costs force structural change in China?s livestock sector. Labor scarcity, animal disease pressures, and rising living standards are prompting rural households to abandon ?backyard? livestock production and shift more production to specialized farm enterprises that rely more heavily on commercial feed. Because of this, China has switched from being a corn exporter to importing 3-5 million tons annually since 2009. Rising feed demand has also pushed up costs and motivated feed mills and livestock producers to explore new feed ingredients like DDGS and sorghum. Find this chart and additional analysis in "China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed" in the April Amber Waves.

India emerges as major beef exporter

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Since the late 2000s, India?s exports of beef?specifically water buffalo meat, also known as carabeef?have expanded rapidly, with India moving just ahead of Brazil to become the world?s largest exporter in 2014. India?s beef exports during the period have grown at an annual rate of about 12 percent, rising from an average volume of 0.31 million metric tons during 1999-2001 to an estimated 1.95 million during 2013-15. India?s robust export growth contributed to the expansion of world beef trade during this period and also increased the country?s share of the volume of shipments by major world beef exporters from just 5 percent during 1999-2001 to about 20 percent during 2013-15. The U.S. market share fluctuated during this period but declined from an average of 18 percent during 1999-2001 to 12 percent during 2013-15. This chart is from the ERS report, From Where the Buffalo Roam: India?s Beef Exports, released June 22, 2016.

Agricultural production in India shifting to high-value outputs

Thursday, September 1, 2016

India?s economic growth and rising incomes have expanded consumer food demand to include higher valued foods, such as fruit, vegetables, and some meat products. Indian farmers appear to be meeting these new growth opportunities. A look at average production shares in the 1980-84 and the 2004-08 periods shows that growth in production of animal and horticulture products reduced the share of production growth attributable to grains. Accordingly, India?s real value of farm production increased an average 3 percent each year, rising from 2.6 trillion rupees in 1980 to 7.3 trillion rupees in 2008, or from $42 billion to $116 billion. This chart is based on Propellers of Agricultural Productivity in India, December 2015.

Residents of low-income countries devote a greater share of their total spending to food

Thursday, September 1, 2016

At-home food spending as a share of consumption expenditures varies between countries, with higher income countries spending a relatively small share and lower income countries spending a larger share. The United States has the lowest at-home food spending share and Cameroon one of the highest. Consumption expenditures include personal spending on goods and services in the domestic market. As incomes rise, food spending typically increases in absolute terms, but declines as a share of total consumption expenditures. Between 2008 and 2011, food spending as a share of consumption expenditures remained relatively flat in both the United States and Japan. Food spending's share in the other six countries fell during this time, especially in India which saw large increases in income and total consumption expenditures. This chart is based on data from the ERS Food Expenditure Series data product, updated October 2012.

U.S. agricultural exports to China grow despite increases in China's domestic farm support

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China has been an important source of recent growth in U.S. agricultural exports, and there has been concern about the implications of recent increases in China?s domestic farm support. While it is often presumed that subsidies and price supports give Chinese farmers an advantage, these policies actually may improve prospects for U.S. agricultural exports by raising costs and prices of Chinese commodities above international levels. As a World Trade Organization (WTO) member, China agreed to relatively low tariffs and eliminated most barriers to imports apart from tariff rate quotas for several types of cereal grains, cotton, and sugar. Consequently, as China raises domestic price supports above international prices, the country tends to attract more imports. As a result, China today is a net importer of the commodities that are the main targets of its domestic support programs?grains, oilseeds and cotton. This chart can be found in Growth and Evolution in China?s Agricultural Support Policies, ERR-153.

Strong projected growth in global poultry meat imports

Thursday, September 1, 2016

The United States is the world?s second largest poultry meat exporter behind Brazil, with U.S. exports valued at $4.2 billion and accounting for 20 percent of U.S. broiler meat production in 2012. According to USDA?s long-term projections, world import demand for poultry meat is expected to grow 1.56 million tons over the next 10 years. Brazil?s poultry exports?aided by relatively low production costs?are expected to grow 27 percent by 2022, compared with 11 percent projected growth in U.S. exports.? Strong growth in poultry imports is projected for much of the world, except for Russia and the EU.? Continued growth is projected in the Africa and the Middle East region?including Sub-Saharan Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Other North Africa and Middle East?which now accounts for more than 40 percent of poultry imports by major importers.? In this and other developing regions, rising consumer incomes, population growth, urbanization, and the typically low cost of poultry meat relative to other meats are key drivers of expanding poultry demand.? This chart can be found in Assessing Growth in U.S. Broiler and Poultry Meat Exports, LDPM-231-01, released November 8, 2013.

Internationally, at-home food spending varies more than calorie availability

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Per capita food-at-home spending varies widely across countries, reflecting general food price levels, prices for particular foods (grains versus meats), and for higher income countries, the mix of at-home and away-from-home spending. In poorer countries, diets consist mostly of lower cost grains, such as corn and sorghum, and roots such as cassava. In Kenya, corn makes up about one-third of total calories consumed. In 2012, food-at-home spending was $2,273 per person in the United States and $350 in Kenya. Calorie availability in 2009 displayed a narrower range from 3,688 calories per person per day in the United States to 2,092 calories in Kenya. Japanese consumers outspent U.S. consumers on at-home foods by $1,545 per person, but per-person calorie availability in Japan (2,723 calories per day) was lower. This chart appears in ERS?s data product, Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, updated December 9, 2013.

China's corn yields continue to lag behind U.S. yields

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Data sources indicate that China?s corn yields continue to lag behind yields achieved in the United States (the world?s leading producer) with implications for China?s ability to meet future corn demand through domestic production. Both China?s official yield estimates provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and alternative survey-based estimates provided by China?s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) show China?s average corn yields to be both lower and growing more slowly than U.S. average yields. A key factor constraining yield growth in China is slow progress in breeding appropriate varieties to build on past gains achieved from the adoption of hybrid corn. While fertilizer use is already high by world standards, improvements in pest protection and drought resistance?potentially through the adoption of genetically modified varieties?may offer yield gains.? Current USDA corn supply and demand projections for China indicate that demand is likely to outpace production, leading to expanding corn imports.? Find this chart and additional analysis in Prospects for China?s Corn Yields and Imports.? ?

Import restrictions begin to curtail growth in U.S. feed exports to China

Thursday, September 1, 2016

With record shipments so far in 2013/14 (September/August marketing year), China has emerged as a major buyer of U.S. feed grains, but this trade is now being disrupted by China?s rejection of U.S. shipments containing unapproved genetically modified (GM) material. U.S. corn exports to China have reached 4.0 million tons so far in 2013/14 and China has also, for the first time, initiated large-scale imports of U.S. sorghum, with imports of 2.3 million tons in the first 7 months of 2013/14. China has become the largest U.S. export market for distillers dry grains with solubles (DDGS, a byproduct from production of corn-based ethanol) with sales to China of 2.8 million tons in 2012/13 and 4.0 million tons so far in 2013/14. Feed sales to China are being driven by the continued expansion of meat and feed consumption, high Chinese corn prices, and demand by animal product producers for cost-efficient feed ingredients.? Until recently, China?s trade policies have helped channel demand toward DDGS and sorghum, which face relatively low tariffs and?unlike corn?are not subject to import quotas. But, so far in 2013/14, China has rejected about 1.1 million tons of U.S. corn and DDGS containing unapproved GM material, specifically the MIR 162 strain, and other shipments have been cancelled or diverted to other destinations. More recently, China has halted issuance of licenses for imports of any U.S. DDGS.? These developments place prospects for U.S feed grain exports to China in 2013/14 and beyond in question. For further analysis, see China?s Market for Distillers Dried Grains and the Key Influences on Its Longer Run Potential.

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