ERS Charts of Note
Friday, June 8, 2018
U.S. all-wheat food use for the 2017/18 marketing year is now estimated at 963 million bushels, up 14 million from 2016/17. The strong rise in wheat food use reverses a multiyear trend of both declining per capita and aggregate wheat food use. For 2017, per capita wheat food use is projected at 131.8 pounds, up slightly from 131.7 pounds per capita in 2016. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data indicate that real personal consumption expenditures, driven by rising incomes, have steadily increased and support growth in food service and accommodations expenditures. Wheat food use tends to increase as expenditures on food eaten away from home rise. Accordingly, the recent lift in wheat food use can, in part, be explained by increased demand for food services such as meals eaten at fast casual restaurants. The restaurant industry is projecting sustained, moderate growth through 2018, which in turn supports an upward revision of the 2017/18 wheat food use estimate to 963 million bushels. This chart is from the ERS Wheat Outlook: May 2018.
Thursday, April 5, 2018
The total farm value of fruit, tree nut, and vegetable production is projected to grow by roughly 2.7 percent annually over the next decade, reaching just over $65.8 billion by 2027, up from almost $52 billion forecast for 2018. Forty percent of the total value for 2027 comes from fruit, while tree nuts and vegetables account for 18 and 42 percent, respectively. In addition to rising farm prices driven by general inflation expectations, production is expected to grow in all three categories, driving up total value. Production of fruit and vegetables, in the aggregate, is expected to increase by just under 1 percent per year through 2027, while tree nut production is projected to expand by just over 2 percent annually. Vegetable production projections are primarily influenced by expected growth in the pulse (e.g. beans, lentils) sector. Nut production projections reflect growing domestic and export demand for almonds, walnuts, and pecans. Projections for a 0.7-percent increase in fruit and tree nut value of production in 2018 reflect losses for Florida’s citrus crops related to Hurricane Irma. A quick recovery is expected, and production value for fruit and tree nuts is projected to grow at a faster rate beginning in 2019. This chart appears in the USDA report, Agricultural Projections to 2027, released in February 2018.
Friday, September 22, 2017
China produces roughly half of the world’s pork, generating 55 billion pounds per year since 2013. But, over the past decade it has nevertheless become a leading importer of the meat. Domestic pork production contracted in 2015 and 2016 because of lower pig supplies. That period followed 7 years of growth that drove prices below profitable levels. Imports soared during 2016, as shrinking Chinese pork supplies helped push the country’s pork prices to record levels. But, the most recent data show that imports have fallen about 52 percent from a year ago, reflecting an ongoing recovery in Chinese domestic production. Over the past year, the country reduced its pork imports from all major pork exporting countries, including the United States (-38.0 percent), Canada (-51.6 percent), the E.U. (-56.3 percent), and Brazil (-60.6 percent). In addition, a dozen or more feed and livestock companies have announced aggressive expansion plans within China. With higher domestic hog and pork production, supplies in China appear more than adequate, as the prices for feeder pigs, pork, and live hogs are all below the levels of a year ago. The chart appears in the September Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
In 2016/17 (July-June marketing year), virtually all major wheat–exporting countries in the world (United States, Australia, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) have been enjoying near perfect weather conditions, and most are likely to have record or near-record wheat output this year. Among them, Russia is expected to have by far the largest wheat harvest in its history, despite having a much smaller area devoted to wheat than it did during its historical highs in the 1960s and 70s. One big exception to this upbeat wheat production outlook is the western part of the European continent where poor weather has undermined the quality and quantity of the wheat harvest this year. Record wheat output in Russia combined with its price-competitiveness—Black Sea wheat is currently by far the cheapest in the world—is expected to propel Russia to become the world’s top wheat exporter this year at 30 million tons, unseating the European Union, which became the world leader in 2013/14. While this year’s developments are driven in part by a poor EU wheat harvest, Russia has been gaining wheat export share for several years, alongside the EU, its main competitor and the top exporter over the previous three years. The gains by Russia and the EU in the global wheat market come mainly at the expense of the United States, whose share of world wheat trade is trending lower. This chart is based on the August 2016 Wheat Outlook report, using information from the Production, Supply, and Distribution database of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
The 2016 U.S. cotton crop is expected to reach 15.8 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds), 23 percent larger than the 2015 crop, reflecting a 17-percent increase in acreage, lower abandonment and higher yields compared to last year. Globally, cotton production is projected to reach 102.5 million bales in 2016, up 5 percent from last year. Global cotton production is concentrated among a small number of countries, with India and China accounting for nearly half of world production and the top five producers expected to supply 77 percent of the world’s cotton this year. Production in most countries is expected to increase at least modestly this year, with the exception of China, where production is expected to fall 4.5 percent to 21.4 million bales as acreage there falls to historically low levels. Given the large increase in U.S. production, the U.S. share of global supply is expected to increase from 13.2 percent in 2015 to 15.4 percent in 2016, compared to a 27-percent share supplied by India and 21 percent by China. This chart is from the ERS report Cotton and Wool Outlook report, July 2016.
Thursday, June 9, 2016
India is the world’s largest importer of soybean oil, surpassing China in 2013/14 as China’s expanding crushing industry began to focus on importing raw soybeans for processing into meal and oil. China’s soybean oil imports are projected to grow modestly over the next 10 years to reach 1.4 million tons by 2025/26, while India’s imports could reach 3.9 million tons over the same period. India’s large population and rising incomes, combined with poor soybean yields and limited area for expanding production, increase its reliance on imports to meet domestic vegetable oil demand. Despite its history of high import tariffs on vegetable oils—40 percent for soybean oil and as high as 85 percent for other oils—India has long been a major importer of vegetable oil. In 2008, in response to high food prices, India slashed its soybean oil tariffs, further contributing to the projected rise in imports. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and the primary supplier to both India and China. The United States is the world’s second largest exporter of soybean oil, accounting for about 10 percent of global soybean oil trade, with most of that oil destined to markets in the Western Hemisphere. This chart is from the May 2016 Amber Waves article, “Major Factors Affecting Global Soybean and Products Trade Projections.”
Monday, May 16, 2016
China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans. The country’s dominance as an importer reflects government policies that favor imports of soybeans over feed grains, coupled with dietary shifts toward more animal proteins, which creates a strong demand for soybean meal used for livestock feed rations. In 1995, China adopted a policy of 95 percent self-sufficiency for grains, and from 2008 to 2012 the country increased price supports for wheat, rice, and corn at higher rates than those for soybeans, making soybean production less attractive to farmers and resulting in an 18-percent decline in domestic production while soybean imports jumped 50 percent. China’s border policies also favor soybean imports. Import tariffs for soybeans are lower than those for soybean meal or oil, resulting in China’s oilseed-crushing industry becoming the largest in the world, and supplied mainly with imported soybeans. With China’s policies continuing to favor grain production over soybeans and its feed and livestock industries expected to continue growing, the country’s demand for imported soybeans is projected to remain strong over the next decade, increasing from 83 million tons in 2016/17 to 109.5 million tons in 2025/26. This chart is from the May 2016 Amber Waves article, “Major Factors Affecting Global Soybean and Products Trade Projections.”
Friday, May 13, 2016
Land planted to soybeans in Argentina grew from fewer than 5 million hectares in 1992/93 (April-March) to 20 million hectares in 2015/16, while wheat and corn area has seen little or no growth over this period (1 hectare = 2.47 acres). Soybean meal is a major component of livestock feed, and growing demand for meat and livestock products worldwide has supported increased soybean production and trade. In Argentina, tax policies have played a role in soybean production as well. In 2002, the country imposed taxes on its agricultural exports as a way to generate government revenue. Argentina applies lower export taxes on soybean meal and oil than it does on raw soybeans, which stimulated the construction of large oilseed crushing facilities and, consequently, led to more soybean meal and oil exports. In 2008, the Government of Argentina increased export taxes and imposed a permitting system that further restricted exports of products such as corn, wheat, and beef. Soybean products face fewer obstacles in export markets and abundant opportunities to expand planted area through double cropping and adjusting crop-pasture rotations on marginal lands in the northwest part of Argentina. As a result, Argentina’s soybean area has expanded rapidly and is projected to reach over 22 million hectares by 2025/26. This chart is from the May 2016 Amber Waves article, “Major Factors Affecting Global Soybean and Products Trade Projections.”
Friday, April 29, 2016
Global ending stocks of cotton are forecast to decline in the 2015/16 marketing year (August-July), down about 9 percent from last year’s record of nearly 112 million bales. Cotton stocks rose dramatically between 2010/11 and 2014/15 as relatively high prices encouraged world production and discouraged consumption. Despite this season’s anticipated decrease, ending stocks remain double the 2010/11 level. The recent global stocks buildup resulted from policies in China that insulated Chinese cotton producers from declining world prices and, at the same time, also encouraged imports. More recent policy shifts in China have discouraged production and imports in that country, beginning the process of reducing the surplus of Government-held stocks. In 2015/16, China’s stocks are expected to decrease for the first time since 2010/11. However, with stock reductions also expected in the rest of the world, China’s share of global stocks remains above 60 percent. This chart is from the April 2016 Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Monday, April 25, 2016
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, coarse grains, including corn, sorghum and millet, are a prominent part of the diet and are supplied mostly from domestic production. Wheat and rice play a smaller role and a significant portion of those grains are imported. In 2015/16, weather was influenced by a strong El Nino in the Pacific, and rainfall patterns shifted, leaving several major Sub-Saharan production areas in drought. Coarse grain production in the region in 2015/16 is estimated to be down about 14 percent from the previous year’s record output. Production was sharply reduced, especially in the populous countries of South Africa, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Wealthier countries such as South Africa can offset much of the production drop through reduced exports, increased imports, and drawing on stocks held over from the previous harvest. Ethiopia is expected to boost imports, especially wheat. The sharp drop in production in Sudan could be mostly reflected in reduced food consumption. This chart is from the April 2016 Feed Outlook report.
Friday, April 8, 2016
A strengthening U.S. dollar coupled with poultry trade restrictions related to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to a reduction in U.S. meat and poultry exports in 2015. However, U.S. red meat and poultry exports are expected to rise over the next decade as steady global economic growth supports demand for high-quality animal proteins. Poultry is the largest U.S. meat export category, and broiler export growth is expected to resume over the next decade with strong near-term gains reflecting a rebound from HPAI-related import restrictions. China and Mexico are major US broiler export markets. U.S. pork exports are projected to continue rising, with Pacific Rim nations and Mexico among the key growth markets. U.S. beef exports are projected to grow as well, consisting mostly of high-quality, grain-fed beef shipped to Mexico, Canada, and Pacific Rim nations. This chart is from the interagency USDA report, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
U.S. net imports of textile and apparel fiber products increased for a third consecutive calendar year in 2015 to the highest on record, reaching 15.7 billion pounds (raw fiber equivalent), compared with 14.5 billion pounds in 2014. U.S. net imports consist mostly of cotton and manmade fiber products, as demand for linen, wool, and silk products remains relatively small. With manmade fiber imports expanding steadily in recent years, cotton’s share has declined consistently. In 2015, cotton textile and apparel products accounted for 44 percent of the total imports, while manmade fibers contributed nearly 49 percent. By comparison, in 2007, cotton accounted for 56 percent of all textile and apparel imports, while the share of manmade fibers was 37 percent. This chart is from the Cotton and Wool Outlook, March 2016.
Thursday, January 28, 2016
U.S. annual pork production has grown by more than 63 percent since 1990, and in 2015 it reached an all-time record of more than 24.3 billion pounds. Over the same period, the size of the U.S. hog breeding herd declined by more than 13 percent, reflecting strong productivity increases in hog production. Technical innovation in breeding and genetic research has yielded larger numbers of piglets per sow: U.S. average litter rates grew from fewer than 8 pigs per litter in 1990 to more than 10 today. At the same time, improvements in nutrition and barn management practices, together with heavier slaughter weights, have allowed the hog industry to reduce the size of its breeding herd while expanding production of pork. This chart is based on the ERS Livestock & Meat Domestic Data and the January 2016 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Monday, November 2, 2015
Employment at U.S. textile plants has fallen by nearly two-thirds over the past 20 years as fabric production and apparel manufacturing shifted overseas in search of lower labor and production costs. Today, more than 60 percent of clothing and other textile products purchased by U.S. consumers is produced outside of the United States. However, both the sharp decline in U.S. textile employment and the rise in import share of U.S. fiber consumption began to level off around 2009. In recent years, the U.S. textile industry—particularly the capital-intensive yarn and fabric production industry—has shown signs of a modest rebound. Cotton consumption by U.S. textile mills in marketing year 2015 (August/July) is forecast at 3.7 million bales, up 3.5 percent from a year ago and 12.1 percent from its 2011 low. In 2014, U.S. textile mill employment showed its first gain since 1994—up 0.2 percent. Investment in U.S. cotton spinning by firms from China and India is underway as well, reflecting the changes in global textile markets since the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (which governed world trade in textiles and garments) expired on January 1, 2005. This chart is from the October Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Beef prices typically experience a seasonal decline at the end of summer, but the decline in prices since August this year has been particularly steep, and the combination of abundant supplies and lower demand suggests cattle and beef prices could continue to decline. Cattle are remaining on feed longer and are currently being marketed at record-high weights, resulting in increased beef production this year despite the historically small cattle supplies. At the same time, beef demand is in the midst of its seasonal decline as attention shifts from grilling to roasting items. As a result, wholesale beef prices have declined steadily since late August, while the price premium that Choice beef typically receives over the Select grade is diminishing, reflecting current strong supplies of these higher graded cuts relative to previous periods. Adding to the market pressures, beef exports are down from this time last year due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and softening demand for U.S. beef, resulting in larger-than-anticipated volumes to be consumed in the domestic market and the expectation for continued downward pressure on prices in the near term. This chart is from the October Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry report.
Friday, September 11, 2015
Historically, nearly all livestock were bought and sold in large, public markets where hundreds of buyers and sellers would compete for the best price based on the information that each brings to the market. These cash transactions resulted in prices and pricing information that were freely available and shared widely through public and private sources. Beginning in the mid twentieth century, the industry evolved and became more concentrated and coordinated at all levels. The use of cash markets declined sharply in favor of various forms of price contracts, such as forward contracts, marketing agreements, packer ownership, and formula pricing—where a cash price might be used for reference but premiums or discounts are applied based on a pre-determined formula. In the beef cattle market, the last decade has seen a shift away from cash market sales in favor of formula pricing, which has led to concerns that the cash prices used in those formulas could be unreliable, and that the limited volume of public sales undermines price transparency and market efficiency. The Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting Act was passed in 1999 in response to these and other concerns, and requires all major meatpackers to report the prices they pay for sheep, cattle and hogs, as well as their selling prices for lamb, beef and pork. This chart is from the ERS report, Mandatory Price Reporting, Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Livestock Markets.
Monday, August 3, 2015
Maple syrup production in the United States was up 203,000 gallons (6.3 percent) in 2015, making it the second largest crop on record. Production of this sweetener has trended higher over the past few decades, and the 3.4 million gallons harvested this year is more than three times the amount produced in 1995. The number of tree taps this year reached almost 12 million, the highest on record, and 61 percent of those taps were in New England. Vermont is the Nation’s largest producer of maple syrup and, with New York and Maine, accounts for 75 percent of the U.S. total. Despite the steady growth in domestic production, imports from Canada still account for nearly 70 percent of U.S. consumption. The average price received by farmers in 2014 was $36.40 per gallon (ranging from $31.50 in Maine to $70.90 in Connecticut), down $1 from the previous year. The wide divergence in average prices is due to sales format—largely retail sales in Connecticut and bulk sales in Maine. This chart is from the July 2015 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.
Friday, July 31, 2015
Cotton production is concentrated among only a few countries, with the world’s five largest cotton-producing countries forecast to produce nearly 80% of world production in 2015/16. India and China together account for more than 50 percent of global cotton production, but production in China is declining while increasing in India. In 2015/16, India is expected to surpass China as the world’s largest cotton producer for the first time on record, with a crop forecast at 29.5 million bales, pushing India’s share of world production to 26.5 percent. For China, 2015/16 production is forecast to decrease 10 percent (3 million bales) to 27 million bales, the lowest since 2003/04. China’s share of global production is forecast at 24 percent as area continues to trend lower. The difference in the production outlook for China and India can be traced in part to China’s rising wages and increasing production costs, while new technology and production practices have driven India’s yields and output significantly higher in recent years. Its output surpassed the United States for the first time in 2006 and is now poised to surpass China, which had been the world’s largest cotton producer since 1982. This chart is from July 2015 Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Global cotton stocks have risen over the last several years, largely the result of growth in China’s stocks. Government policies in China supported national reserve purchases of domestic cotton and, at the same time, significant imports of raw cotton. These policies strengthened global cotton prices by keeping China’s supplies out of the marketplace while also encouraging production in other countries. Stocks in China at the end of 2014/15 (August/July marketing year) are estimated at a record 65.6 million bales, or 60 percent of global stocks. For 2015/16, policy adjustments in China are expected to reduce stocks slightly to 62.6 million bales, with its share of world stocks remaining unchanged. Globally, cotton stocks are expected to decline in 2015/16 for the first time in 6 years, but would still remain more than double the level in 2010/11, resulting result in only a slight decrease in the world stocks-to-use ratio. As a result, the 2015/16 world cotton price is expected to remain near the current season’s average of about 71 cents per pound, the lowest in 6 years. This chart is from the June 2015 Cotton and Wool Outlook.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Historically small U.S. cattle inventory continues to support high beef prices in 2015, but at least in the short term, increasing imports of processing beef (especially from Australia) and heavy carcass weights have helped moderate some of the price pressures. Fed cattle live and dressed weights have remained significantly heavier than last year due in part to improvements in pasture conditions and extra time on feed as a result of reduced steer and heifer slaughter. One uncertainty is the extent to which feeding cattle to heavier weights will offset the decrease in slaughter numbers in 2015, and the ultimate effect this will have on total commercial beef production. Despite heavier cattle, U.S. commercial beef production is currently expected to fall to a multi-decade low of 24 billion pounds in 2015. U.S. beef production is expected to increase in 2016 due to a rising cattle inventory and continued heavier carcass weights. This chart is from Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2015.