ERS Charts of Note
Friday, August 3, 2018
The latest USDA cotton projections for the 2018/19 marketing year (August-July) indicate that world cotton mill use will reach a new record high, in large part reflecting additional expected growth in the world economy. Global cotton consumption is projected at 127.0 million bales in 2018/19, 3.9 percent above 2017/18. Mill use, a proxy for consumption, is forecast to rise in each of the leading raw-cotton spinners in 2018/19, with China accounting for more than one-third of the world total. Cotton mill use growth varies by country and year of comparison. Using 2015/16 as the base year, 2018/19 world cotton consumption is projected 12 percent higher. Relative to 3 years ago, cotton mill use in China in 2018/19 is expected to be 18 percent higher, while India and Pakistan increase by just 2 and 4 percent, respectively. Cotton mill use in Bangladesh and Vietnam continues to expand, and the growth since 2015/16 has been remarkable. For Bangladesh, 2018/19 mill use is projected 27 percent higher than in 2015/16, while the growth for Vietnam is even more dramatic, with 2018/19 mill use expected to be nearly 67 percent above the 2015/16 level. This chart appears in the ERS July 2018 Cotton and Wool Outlook newsletter.
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
The latest USDA cotton projections for 2018/19 indicate that global cotton stocks will decrease, following last season’s relatively small increase. Worldwide, USDA projects ending stocks at 83.0 million bales for the 2018/19 marketing year, nearly 6 percent below 2017/18 and the lowest since 2011/12. Global cotton stocks totaled a record 110.8 million bales at the end of 2014/15. China held 60 percent of the total, reflecting Government policies at the time that led to unusually large stocks in its national reserve. Subsequently, China implemented policies to reduce its surplus stocks and thereby lowered world stocks. For 2018/19, stocks in China are projected to decline further to 33.1 million bales—40 percent of the global total—while stocks outside China are forecast to approach a record high 50 million bales. However, as a share of world mill use, stocks outside China are expected to rise only slightly in 2018/19. In the United States, stocks have risen progressively and are on track to be their highest in a decade at 4.7 million bales. This chart appears in the ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook: June 2018.
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
USDA estimates commodity costs and returns based on periodic of commodity producer surveys. Cotton producers were surveyed in 1997, 2003, 2007, and most recently in 2015. Total economic costs estimated from these cotton surveys declined from about $1.40 per pound in 1997 to $0.92 in 2015. Declining real costs of cotton production reflect productivity gains in the industry that can be traced to the adoption of new cotton production technologies and changes in where cotton is grown. Productivity gains were particularly rapid during 1997-2003 as genetically modified (GM) cotton was widely adopted and real production costs fell nearly 20 percent. Between 2003 and 2015 real production costs fell another 20 percent, while cotton acreage declined 36 percent. Cotton became more concentrated in the low-cost Southern Plains region and declined in the high-cost areas of California and the Mississippi Delta region. This chart is drawn from the ERS Commodity Costs and Returns data product, updated in May 2017.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
The latest USDA cotton projections for marketing year 2016/17 indicate that world ending stocks are forecast at 90.9 million bales, 6 percent below the previous season and 19 percent (nearly 21 million bales) lower than 2014/15’s record of 111.7 million bales. Global cotton stocks in 2016/17 are expected to decline in back-to-back years after five consecutive seasons of rising supplies. Earlier cotton prices support policies in China that contributed to the buildup in global stocks, culminating in nearly 67 million bales of cotton at the end of 2014/15. Likewise, the recent trend of declining supplies is attributable to more recent policies in China that discouraged production, limited raw cotton imports, and began the process of reducing the surplus in government-held stocks. In 2016/17, China’s cotton stocks are forecast at 49.1 million bales, nearly 18 million bales below the record and the lowest in 5 years. With combined stocks in the rest of the world expected higher in 2016/17, China’s share of global stocks are projected to decrease to 54 percent, compared with 60 percent during the previous three seasons. This chart appears in the ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook report released in April 2017.
Thursday, March 2, 2017
Prior to the 2015/16 marketing year, global cotton production had exceeded consumption for 4 consecutive years. This led to increasing ending stocks and downward pressure on cotton prices. In addition to the negative production incentives from low prices and excess stocks, poor weather conditions further reduced global cotton production in 2015/16. Consumption exceeded production in 2015/16 by 15 million bales and falling prices stabilized. In 2016/17, projected production has remained below consumption and prices have increased. The global cotton industry also continues to face price competition from synthetic fibers to maintain market share. Consumption is only projected to grow by 1 percent in 2016/17 and is up only 4 percent over a 5-year period. This chart is drawn from the ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook tables released in February 2017.
Monday, October 3, 2016
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates for 2016/17 project world cotton production at 102.5 million bales, 6 percent above the previous season’s 13-year low. The three largest cotton-producing countries remain India, China, and the United States. In 2016/17, these countries are forecast to account for 62 percent of global production, slightly below the 3-year average (approximately 64 percent) as larger harvests are expected from a number of other cotton-producing countries such as Pakistan and Brazil. India is expected to remain the leading producer, after first surpassing China in 2015/16. Globally, 2016/17 cotton production is rising as a result of a higher yield expectation. World cotton area, on the other hand, is declining for a second consecutive season and projected to dip to its lowest since 1986/87. The reduction in planted cotton area may be due to declining global cotton prices as well as reduced imports from China. The ratio of cotton prices to alternative fibers such as polyester has also remained high even as cotton prices have fallen. This is due in part to the recent declines of global oil prices, which constitutes a key input in polyester production. This chart is based on data reported in the ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook published September 2016.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
The 2016 U.S. cotton crop is expected to reach 15.8 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds), 23 percent larger than the 2015 crop, reflecting a 17-percent increase in acreage, lower abandonment and higher yields compared to last year. Globally, cotton production is projected to reach 102.5 million bales in 2016, up 5 percent from last year. Global cotton production is concentrated among a small number of countries, with India and China accounting for nearly half of world production and the top five producers expected to supply 77 percent of the world’s cotton this year. Production in most countries is expected to increase at least modestly this year, with the exception of China, where production is expected to fall 4.5 percent to 21.4 million bales as acreage there falls to historically low levels. Given the large increase in U.S. production, the U.S. share of global supply is expected to increase from 13.2 percent in 2015 to 15.4 percent in 2016, compared to a 27-percent share supplied by India and 21 percent by China. This chart is from the ERS report Cotton and Wool Outlook report, July 2016.
Friday, April 29, 2016
Global ending stocks of cotton are forecast to decline in the 2015/16 marketing year (August-July), down about 9 percent from last year’s record of nearly 112 million bales. Cotton stocks rose dramatically between 2010/11 and 2014/15 as relatively high prices encouraged world production and discouraged consumption. Despite this season’s anticipated decrease, ending stocks remain double the 2010/11 level. The recent global stocks buildup resulted from policies in China that insulated Chinese cotton producers from declining world prices and, at the same time, also encouraged imports. More recent policy shifts in China have discouraged production and imports in that country, beginning the process of reducing the surplus of Government-held stocks. In 2015/16, China’s stocks are expected to decrease for the first time since 2010/11. However, with stock reductions also expected in the rest of the world, China’s share of global stocks remains above 60 percent. This chart is from the April 2016 Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
U.S. net imports of textile and apparel fiber products increased for a third consecutive calendar year in 2015 to the highest on record, reaching 15.7 billion pounds (raw fiber equivalent), compared with 14.5 billion pounds in 2014. U.S. net imports consist mostly of cotton and manmade fiber products, as demand for linen, wool, and silk products remains relatively small. With manmade fiber imports expanding steadily in recent years, cotton’s share has declined consistently. In 2015, cotton textile and apparel products accounted for 44 percent of the total imports, while manmade fibers contributed nearly 49 percent. By comparison, in 2007, cotton accounted for 56 percent of all textile and apparel imports, while the share of manmade fibers was 37 percent. This chart is from the Cotton and Wool Outlook, March 2016.
Monday, November 2, 2015
Employment at U.S. textile plants has fallen by nearly two-thirds over the past 20 years as fabric production and apparel manufacturing shifted overseas in search of lower labor and production costs. Today, more than 60 percent of clothing and other textile products purchased by U.S. consumers is produced outside of the United States. However, both the sharp decline in U.S. textile employment and the rise in import share of U.S. fiber consumption began to level off around 2009. In recent years, the U.S. textile industry—particularly the capital-intensive yarn and fabric production industry—has shown signs of a modest rebound. Cotton consumption by U.S. textile mills in marketing year 2015 (August/July) is forecast at 3.7 million bales, up 3.5 percent from a year ago and 12.1 percent from its 2011 low. In 2014, U.S. textile mill employment showed its first gain since 1994—up 0.2 percent. Investment in U.S. cotton spinning by firms from China and India is underway as well, reflecting the changes in global textile markets since the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (which governed world trade in textiles and garments) expired on January 1, 2005. This chart is from the October Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Friday, July 31, 2015
Cotton production is concentrated among only a few countries, with the world’s five largest cotton-producing countries forecast to produce nearly 80% of world production in 2015/16. India and China together account for more than 50 percent of global cotton production, but production in China is declining while increasing in India. In 2015/16, India is expected to surpass China as the world’s largest cotton producer for the first time on record, with a crop forecast at 29.5 million bales, pushing India’s share of world production to 26.5 percent. For China, 2015/16 production is forecast to decrease 10 percent (3 million bales) to 27 million bales, the lowest since 2003/04. China’s share of global production is forecast at 24 percent as area continues to trend lower. The difference in the production outlook for China and India can be traced in part to China’s rising wages and increasing production costs, while new technology and production practices have driven India’s yields and output significantly higher in recent years. Its output surpassed the United States for the first time in 2006 and is now poised to surpass China, which had been the world’s largest cotton producer since 1982. This chart is from July 2015 Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Global cotton stocks have risen over the last several years, largely the result of growth in China’s stocks. Government policies in China supported national reserve purchases of domestic cotton and, at the same time, significant imports of raw cotton. These policies strengthened global cotton prices by keeping China’s supplies out of the marketplace while also encouraging production in other countries. Stocks in China at the end of 2014/15 (August/July marketing year) are estimated at a record 65.6 million bales, or 60 percent of global stocks. For 2015/16, policy adjustments in China are expected to reduce stocks slightly to 62.6 million bales, with its share of world stocks remaining unchanged. Globally, cotton stocks are expected to decline in 2015/16 for the first time in 6 years, but would still remain more than double the level in 2010/11, resulting result in only a slight decrease in the world stocks-to-use ratio. As a result, the 2015/16 world cotton price is expected to remain near the current season’s average of about 71 cents per pound, the lowest in 6 years. This chart is from the June 2015 Cotton and Wool Outlook.
Friday, May 8, 2015
China has been the world’s largest cotton producer and consumer of cotton for decades, and it became the largest importer shortly after its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Economic growth has transformed its agriculture sector, driving wages higher and spurring greater mechanization in many areas; however, small scale cotton production persists with limited mechanization and high production costs, especially in eastern China. To support its farmers, China introduced a support price for cotton in 2011, and from 2011 to 2013 acquired more than 40 percent of China’s cotton crop in an attempt to maintain domestic cotton prices 50-60 percent above world prices. This has resulted in China’s government owning a large amount of cotton stocks, equivalent to nearly 200 percent of its annual use and half of the world’s consumption. New policies in 2014 included a shift from stock acquisition toward target-price based direct subsidies and a sharp reduction in cotton import quotas. Reduced purchases by China’s government and a transition of cotton stockpiles toward long run historic levels could result in years of lower imports, and a decline in world prices. This chart is based on Cotton Policy in China, CWS-15c-01, March 2015.
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
California is the fourth largest cotton producing state, and production there depends heavily on irrigation. California is the dominant producer of the longer and finer quality “Extra-long Staple” (ELS) fiber that is used in high-value products such as sewing thread and more expensive apparel and home furnishing items. During the past three years, California production accounted for 95 percent of the total ELS cotton in the United States. The on-going drought that began in 2012 remains a major concern for agricultural producers as reservoir levels and water supplies have been reduced significantly; record-low water allocations were seen in 2014, affecting the type and amount of crops some farmers can produce. While acreage planted to upland and ELS varieties varies from year to year, the lingering drought in California is expected to limit acreage once again in 2015. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report released at the end of March indicated a 27-percent decrease in the State’s total cotton area for 2015, with ELS area declining 29 percent and upland area decreasing 21 percent. While California’s total cotton area would be at its lowest since 1932, the decline is similar to the one experienced during the previous statewide drought of 2007-09. This chart is based on information in Cotton and Wool Outlook: April 2015.
Friday, April 3, 2015
U.S. net textile and apparel fiber imports rose for a second consecutive calendar year in 2014 to their highest level in 4 years. Net imports reached approximately 14.5 billion raw-fiber-equivalent pounds in 2014, compared with 13.9 billion pounds in 2013 and a record 15.1 billion pounds in 2007. In 2014, total fiber product imports grew 3 percent to their highest since 2010, while exports rose 1 percent to their highest level since 2008. U.S. net imports consist largely of cotton and manmade fiber products, but cotton’s share has declined in recent years due to the steady growth in the use of manmade fibers, due in part to their relative price advantage. In 2014, cotton textile and apparel products accounted for about 46 percent of the total, while manmade fibers contributed 47 percent. By comparison, just 5 years ago, cotton contributed nearly 56 percent of the total compared with manmade fibers’ share of 38 percent. This chart is from the March 2015 Cotton and Wool Outlook report.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
India’s cotton production has expanded rapidly since the early 2000s, passing the United States to become the world’s 2nd largest producer in 2006/07 (August/July marketing year), and now poised to surpass China—the world’s largest producer. India’s cotton production began to expand with the introduction of genetically-modified Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton; higher yield potential and increased pest resistance boosted profitability and stimulated growth in both area and yields. Since 2000/01, India’s cotton area has increased about 2.8 percent annually and is now more than double the area sown to cotton in China and more than triple U.S. cotton area. However, India’s cotton yields, while improving about 6 percent annually since 2000/01 to an average of 530 kgs/ha during 2009/10-2013/14, remain well below those achieved in China (1,357 kgs/ha) and the United States (916 kgs/ha). With gains in production, India has emerged as the world’s second largest exporter of raw cotton, after the United States, and the second largest consumer of raw cotton, after China. Cotton processed in India is destined for its large domestic market as well as exports of cotton yarn, fabric, and clothing. Find additional analysis of cotton market developments in Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2014.
Friday, August 1, 2014
Current USDA forecasts show declines in U.S. average farm prices for major U.S. field crops—corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton—of 4 to 19 percent in 2014/15. For corn, soybeans, and wheat, this would be the second consecutive year of declining prices. Soybean prices are forecast to decline the most in 2014/15, based on an expected record U.S. crop, combined with ample supplies from Brazil and Argentina. U.S. corn prices are forecast to fall 10 percent in 2014/15, after a 35-percent decline in 2013/14, also based on a large U.S. corn crop forecast and competition from other exporters like Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. U.S. wheat prices are forecast to decline about 4 percent in 2014/15, despite the forecast for smaller U.S. supplies, due to adequate supplies from both traditional and Black Sea wheat exporters. Although smaller cotton crops are forecast for China and India—the top two global producers—a larger U.S. crop is expected to lead to a fifth consecutive year of rising global cotton stocks and a 12-percent drop in U.S. prices in 2014/15. Find additional analysis in the current ERS outlook newsletters: Feed Outlook: July 2014, Oil Crops Outlook: July 2014, Wheat Outlook: July 2014, and Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2014.
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
USDA projections for 2014/15 indicate that world cotton stocks will rise for a fifth consecutive season in 2014/15 (August/July marketing years), leading to continued downward pressure on global cotton prices. Global ending stocks are now projected at a record 102.7 million bales for 2014/15, nearly 4 percent above 2013/14, with China accounting for the bulk of the world total. Cotton stocks increased over the past several seasons after relatively high cotton prices led simultaneously to higher global production and slowed growth in cotton mill use. The rise in global stocks has largely occurred in China due to government policies, including national reserve purchases, that have supported global cotton prices by effectively keeping supplies out of the marketplace. Stocks in China at the end of 2013/14 are estimated at 60.3 million bales, or 61 percent of global stocks, and are not projected to change significantly in 2014/15. Cotton prices jumped to average $1.65 per pound in 2010/11 in response to tight global stocks, but have weakened since. The world cotton price is expected to decrease from an average of 92 cents per pound during 2013/14 to about 80 cents per pound in 2014/15. Find this chart in the Cotton & Wool Chart Gallery and additional analysis in Cotton & Wool Outlook: June 2014.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Estimates of U.S. crop returns per acre reveal large differences in crop profitability across commodities and over time during 2010-13. Returns to crop production are defined as the gross value of production less total economic costs. Total economic costs include operating costs such as seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides; the capital recovery cost for machinery and equipment; and the costs—known as opportunity costs—of employing land, labor, capital and other owned resources that have alternative uses. While returns to total economic costs for corn, soybeans, rice, and peanuts were positive, on average, for the 2010-13 period, average returns for other major crops were negative. For most crops, changes in farm prices and the gross value of production per acre, rather than changes in production costs, have driven returns to total economic costs. Lower prices contributed to reduced returns for corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, and peanuts in 2013, while price and yield increases improved returns for oats and rice. The negative returns over total economic costs for some crops indicate that that those producers realized a lower rate of return to their land, labor, and capital than the benchmark rates of return used in ERS commodity cost and returns accounts; returns over operating costs alone were positive for all crops throughout the period. This chart is based on data found in Commodity Costs and Returns.
Friday, May 9, 2014
With the significant decline in cotton use by U.S. mills since the late 1990s, exports now account for about 75 percent of the demand for U.S. cotton, making global market developments key to the outlook for U.S. producers. The source of demand for U.S. cotton shifted with the elimination of textile and apparel import quotas that existed under the international Multifiber Arrangement—a process completed in 2005—leading to increased U.S. imports of textiles and apparel and reduced U.S. demand for raw cotton. Since 2005, there has been significant variability in the volume of U.S. exports and in world prices, much of it attributed to developments in China, the largest global and U.S. market for cotton. Large Chinese purchases contributed to the spike in world prices in 2010/11 (August/July), while large stocks and reduced buying by China are key factors in the outlook for reduced global and U.S. exports in 2013/14. Mill use of cotton in China has now declined for four consecutive seasons in response to government policies, with more consumption shifting to countries such as India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, who are exporting growing volumes of cotton yarn and other intermediate products to China and other markets. This is an updated version of a chart found in Charting the Essentials, with additional analysis available in Cotton and Wool Outlook: April 2014.