(Selected research findings from FY 25)
India is projected to need more feed to meet rising demand for animal products, with imports needed by the early 2030s
India’s demand for animal products—and therefore the demand for feed—has increased over time because of macroeconomic changes. This report provides projections indicating that demand for animal food products will increase more quickly than supply and that India will have difficulty meeting future feed needs without the use of genetically engineered seeds. Although production of animal products and feed have grown, projections indicate that India will need additional feed to rising demand, with imports needed by the early 2030s. The extent of these imports will depend on the rate of income growth and the ability of domestic producers to meet incremental increases in feed demand over time.
UK and EU remain closely linked in trade post-Brexit, yet both seek to broaden trade opportunities
Brexit marked the beginning of a new era in European trade, with implications for global commerce as the United Kingdom (UK) has sought to broaden its sources for agricultural imports. Since formally leaving the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020, the UK has kept strong, but weakening, trade links to the European bloc. This analysis seeks to measure the extent of shifting trade dynamics across a range of agri-food and related commodity groups. Findings show that, relative to trade with the rest of the world, rates of agri-food trade growth in both the EU and UK suggest that each is diversifying toward other trade partners, despite observed increases in bilateral trade.
Sorghum use climbs as a substitute feed grain amid rising global feed demand for chicken
Global demand for chicken meat is expected to grow considerably due to urbanization, income, and population growth, especially in developing and emerging economies. This increase in demand is linked with an increase in feed demand, but uncertainty in the market has many countries weighing which grain to use in broiler feed formulations. This study finds a high rate of substitution between sorghum and corn, especially among risk-averse feed producers between September 2017 and June 2023. Whenever the price of sorghum fell below that of corn and in the presence of greater price risk for corn in global markets, risk-averse producers would shift to sorghum. A similar pattern is found for sorghum in soymeal, but mostly for starter- and grower-feed, not finisher feeds.
India’s commodity policy changes reduced dependence on international grain prices, except for soybeans
India’s commodity prices have risen more rapidly in recent years compared to increases before the Coronavirus pandemic, following the Government of India’s implementation of new policies to mitigate food price inflation. This study analyzes whether the long-term relationship between domestic grain prices in India and international grain prices shifted as a result of these changes. Research found that India’s domestic prices for rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans had a long-term dependence on international prices before the new policies. After the policies were implemented, this long-term dependence became insignificant for all grains except soybeans.
Broken rice’s expanding feed and industrial use marks a shift from its traditional use as a low-cost staple food
As diets shift from grains toward proteins, per capita consumption of rice has declined in China and other traditional rice-consuming countries, leading to greater diversification in rice use. This report analyzes the emerging global markets for broken rice for human food, animal feed, and industrial purposes, focusing on China as the largest importer of broken rice. Over the past decade, broken (or low-grade) rice has increasingly been used for animal feed and industrial purposes. Its role in these markets depends largely on price competitiveness of corn or other common feed grains.