Market Outlook
See the latest Wheat Outlook report.
Global Wheat Stocks Forecast at 8-Year Low
Global wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected down this month 0.6 MMT to 258.3 million metric tons (MMT), which would be the lowest in 8 years. The biggest factor for this month’s decline is India’s wheat stocks, which are forecast down 2.1 MMT to 6.9 MMT as Government stocks estimates implied a stronger pace of use than previously expected. If this forecast is realized, India’s ending stocks will have declined more than 20 MMT from the peak of 27.8 MMT in 2020/21. Global stocks have slipped 39 MMT from the peak of 297 MMT in 2019/20, with China estimated to account for 18 MMT of that decline. Total exporter-held ending stocks have been relatively consistent over the last several years, not showing the same declining trend as China and India’s stocks. Exporter-held ending stocks are generally considered to be a relevant metric as these are the supplies available to the world market and are likely to have a more direct effect on global prices.
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