Market Outlook
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U.S. Wheat Exports at Historic Low in 2023/24
U.S. all-wheat exports are lowered this month 15 million bushels to 710 million and remain the lowest since 1971/72. Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports are forecast at 135 million bushels, the lowest ever (by-class records extend back to 1973/74) as drought reduced supplies in consecutive seasons and competitor supplies have remained much lower priced. HRW exports, normally the largest class of shipments, are now forecast as the fourth largest out of the five classes (figure 1). Hard Red Spring is forecast as the largest class of exports this year at 230 million, which is slightly below its recent 5-year average. White exports this year are also projected below average at 155 million bushels as supplies of that class were affected by drought this year, albeit not as significantly as 2 years ago. Durum exports are forecast a relatively stable 25 million bushels. Conversely, Soft Red Winter (SRW) exports are forecast at 165 million bushels, down 10 million bushels this month, but still the highest in a decade. SRW exports this year have been buoyed by large supplies and significant sales to China between October and December 2023, although some of those sales were cancelled recently.
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