USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009
Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009. World Agricultural Outlook Board, Office of the Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Staff Report No. WAOB-2000-1, February 2000.
Abstract
This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2009. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The baseline assumes that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather or other factors affecting global supply and demand. The projections assume that current agricultural law of the 1996 Farm Act remains in effect throughout the baseline. The baseline projections presented are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 1999, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmental analysis.
A number of factors have combined to weaken agricultural commodity prices in the initial years of the baseline. Global supplies for many agricultural commodities are large, as sizable crops have been produced both in the United States and other countries over the past several years, partly in response to high prices in the mid-1990s. Additionally in the late-1990s, world agricultural demand was weakened by the global financial crisis. As a result, the U.S. agricultural sector has faced strong foreign competition in a weakened global trade setting, reducing the value of U.S. agricultural exports. With economic recovery underway in most of the crisis-affected countries, global demand and trade are strengthening, and gains in U.S. agricultural exports are projected to resume in 2001. Nonetheless, the buildup of global supplies keeps agricultural prices under pressure for the next several years, lowering farm income. Longer run developments in the agricultural sector reflect continuing macroeconomic improvement. While strong export competition continues to influence the baseline, strengthening global economic growth provides a foundation for gains in trade and U.S. agricultural exports, resulting in rising market prices, increases in farm income, and stability in the financial condition of the U.S. agricultural sector.
Keywords: Projections, baseline, crops, livestock, trade, farm income, food prices.
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Contents
 Entire report; 446 kb
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Download Agricultural Baseline Tables
Download the tables from the report in spreadsheet format (.WK1), from the USDA Economics and Statistics System. For more information, call 202-694-5335.
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Contacts: Paul Westcott and Rip Landes
Updated: February 23, 2000
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