Rural Development Perspectives

Volume 13, Number 1

Rural Development Perspectives is published three times per year by the Economic Research Service. To order this or any other ERS publication, please visit the ERS-NASS Sales Desk.

Articles in this issue:

• Sustaining the Great Plains, by Thomas D. Rowley. The Great Plains--that huge tier of counties extending from Texas to Montana and North Dakota--continues its decades-long decline in population. Changes in agriculture together with a lack of economic alternatives and many of the amenities that drive rural population growth today are responsible. As a result, community services become more expensive to provide, the region's population ages, and future prosperity becomes even more difficult to achieve. Turning the situation around and making the Plains sustainable will require addressing economic, environmental, and social concerns.
• Agriculture and New Agricultural Policies in the Great Plains, by David H. Harrington and Robert Dubman. The Great Plains will be affected by the 1996 farm legislation in important ways. The transition to the new law could increase demands for farm inputs and services in the Great Plains by $1.2-$1.4 billion per year (3.8 to 4.6 percent)--enough to make the difference between decline and growth for many farm-related sectors. The residual returns to the farm sector may decline under the 1996 law if demands for agricultural products continue to grow at their historical rates. But residual returns to the sector could increase if demands grow at slightly more than their historical rates, as is likely with the progressive implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization pacts liberalizing trade in agricultural products. Increasing the rate of growth of farm product demands by an average of 1.4 percent per year over less than 4 years would restore longrun net returns to the favorable levels of the 1995 base year.
• Population Change in the Great Plains: A History of Prolonged Decline, by Richard Rathge and Paula Highman. Agricultural restructuring has dramatically redistributed population in the Great Plains. The region's few counties with large urban centers have grown while the majority of counties, mostly rural, have declined. Prolonged outmigration of young families has distorted the age distribution in many counties and further perpetuated population loss by creating high proportions of elderly and by increasing national decline.
• Net Migration in the Great Plains Increasingly Linked to Natural Amenities and Suburbanization, by John B. Cromartie. Over 90 percent of counties in the Great Plains experienced an upward trend in net migration from the mid-1980's to the mid-1990's, in the form of lower net outmigration, higher net inmigration, or a switch from outmigration to inmigration. Net outmigration persisted in sparsely settled, isolated areas and in areas where jobs depended on the extraction of energy resources. However, migration in the mid-1990's was associated less with rural-urban location and employment and more with increased commuting from suburban fringe counties and movement to the few areas in the region with high natural amenities.
• Can Manufacturing Reverse Rural Great Plains Depopulation? by David McGranahan. Manufacturing has been expanding in the rural Great Plains, more rapidly than in the rest of the rural United States, but much of the expansion has been to larger, growing places and much has been in meat packing, which tends to hire low-skill workers--a group in relatively short supply in much of the region. Manufacturers in areas of substantial population loss report problems with finding labor and, even more often, with the attractiveness of the area to managers and professionals. The rural Great Plains seems particularly suited to advanced technology manufacturing, if the problem of attracting managers and professionals could be eased. Manufacturers in the region participate heavily in government programs, but no more so than in other rural regions. Those in areas of decline have tended to receive greater support.
• Retail/Wholesale Trade Employment Directly Related to Population Change in the Nonmetro Great Plains, by Donald J. Adamchak, Leonard E. Bloomquist, Kent Bausman, and Rashida Qureshi. During 1950-90, the nonmetro civilian labor force declined except during the 1970's. In the 1970's, nonmetro manufacturing increased substantially, and the baby boom generation entered the labor force. By contrast, the retail/wholesale labor force increased in every decade except for the 1980's. Several factors could have contributed to the decline in the retail/wholesale labor force, including population decline and the effects of large retail establishments.
• Which Federal Programs Are Most Important for the Great Plains? by Rick Reeder, Faqir Bagi, and Samuel Calhoun. The Great Plains receives more Federal funds, per capita, than the country as a whole. Most of its funding is in the form of direct payments to individuals, such as retirement and disability, and in salaries, wages, and procurement. But, compared with the Nation as a whole, the region gets relatively more funding from other types of assistance, such as agricultural and natural resource payments, defense and space, and community resource programs. Program changes would affect some places more than others, depending on local demographic and economic characteristics. For example, defense procurement increases would likely benefit the region's metro areas more than nonmetro areas; welfare reform is likely to affect persistent-poverty counties more than other counties.
• What Do Nonemployers Contribute to Retail and Service Opportunities in the Great Plains? by Linda M. Ghelfi. Nonemployers, establishments run by owners with no employees, are widespread in small communities, where small operators can fulfill demand, and in specialized niche markets. They are especially common in service and retail businesses. As rural communities, especially remote Great Plains communities, look for ways to expand and diversify their economies, the business acumen of local nonemployers is one resource to tap. This analysis uses data on employers and nonemployers from the 1992 Censuses of Retail Trade and Services.

Contents

Contents and Editor's Notebook, 19 kb

Sustaining the Great Plains, 1,054 kb

Agriculture and New Agricultural Policies in the Great Plains, 146 kb

Population Change in the Great Plains: A History of Prolonged Decline, 277 kb

Net Migration in the Great Plains Increasingly Linked to Natural Amenities and Suburbanization, 305 kb

Can Manufacturing Reverse Rural Great Plains Depopulation?, 44 kb

Retail/Wholesale Trade Employment Directly Related to Population Change in the Nonmetro Great Plains, 24 kb

Which Federal Programs Are Most Important for the Great Plains?, 410 kb

Indicators: What Do Nonemployers Contribute to Retail and Service Opportunities in the Great Plains?, 43 kb

Download entire issue, 2,257 kb.

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Updated: July 8, 1998