FRUIT AND TREE NUTS OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY October 26, 2004 October 2004, ERS-FTS-2004s Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit and Tree Nut Production Down in 2003 Total fruit and tree nut utilized production was down 4 percent in 2003 from 2002. The citrus crop was 6 percent smaller in 2003, and unlike the year before, the noncitrus and tree nut crops were also 3 percent and 2 percent smaller. Citrus production declined for the third consecutive year and was the smallest crop since a freeze damaged the California crop in 1999. Tree nut production has had the fastest growth pattern in recent years, and although most tree nut crops were bigger, total production fell in 2003 due to moderate to significant declines in almond and pistachio production. Almonds lead in U.S. tree nut production, accounting for more than half of total output. Although almond production declined 6 percent in 2003, it was the second highest next to the record-large production in 2002. Much of the decline in noncitrus utilized production during 2003 came from a 13-percent decline in grape utilized production from the year before. Grape production accounted for 39 percent of all noncitrus production in 2003, down from 43 percent in 2002. Utilized production was also lower for California figs, dates, and nectarines, Oregon blackberries and black raspberries, boysenberries, and some tropical fruit, including Hawaiian papayas, pineapples, and guavas. Production of most citrus crops for the marketing year 2002/03 was lower, except for lemons and Florida tangelos. Orange production declined in Florida, Texas, and Arizona but was up 20 percent in California. Meanwhile, a decline in bearing acreage resulted in lower grapefruit production in all four major- producing States. Lower average yields in Florida and Texas also pushed grapefruit production down in 2002/03. Almond and pistachio production fell in 2003 after record crops for both commodities during the on-year of their alternate- bearing cycle the preceeding year. Strong demand for almonds both in the domestic and international markets has led growers to continue to increase acreage for the crop in 2003 but lower yields forced production down from the record-large production harvested in 2002. Similarly, lower yields also pushed pistachio production down 61 percent in 2003. The value of all fruit and tree nut crops increased 8 percent in 2003 from the previous year. At $13.1 billion, it was the highest value since 1997. Crop value increased for both the noncitrus and tree nut crops but was down for citrus. Smaller crops pushed prices higher for grapes, California figs, dates, nectarines, and kiwifruit, Oregon blackberries and black raspberries, cultivated blueberries, boysenberries, and Hawaiian papayas and pineapples. Increased production along with higher prices also boosted grower revenues for apples, avocados, wild blueberries, and California raspberries. Crop value for most citrus crops was lower in 2002/03, except for tangelos. The value of most tree nut crops rose in 2003, except for pistachios. Unlike the almond crop which was also smaller, the decline in pistachio production more than offset the increase in grower prices. Meanwhile, despite larger crops, grower prices were higher in 2003 for hazelnuts, pecans, and walnuts. Also, higher prices boosted revenues for macadamia nut growers while production remained unchanged. Bearing Acreage Declines for the Third Year The number of fruit-bearing acres declined for the third consecutive year in 2003. At 4.0 million acres, the number of acres producing fruit in 2003 was the lowest since 1998. Much of the decline in fruit bearing acreage may be attributed to reduced acreage for all the citrus crops. Overall citrus bearing acreage fell 2 percent, with larger declines reported for grapefruit, tangerine, and lemon acreage than for oranges. Bearing acreage for major noncitrus crops was unchanged in 2003 but acreage producing miscellaneous noncitrus crops fell by less than 1 percent. Tree nut bearing acres continue to expand as it has since 1995. In 2003, there were 896,800 acres producing tree nuts in the United States, 1 percent more than in 2002. This increase in acreage in 2003 has slowed from the 2- to 3-percent growth rate experienced over the previous 7 years. Acreage increased for almonds, pistachios, and walnuts, but declined for hazelnuts. Meanwhile, acreage for macadamia nut production was unchanged. Data are unavailable for pecans. Prices Received by Growers Up Slightly in 2003 The index of prices received by growers for fruit and nuts rose nearly 1 percent in 2003 from the previous year, to 106 (1990- 92=100). Helping to boost the index were higher grower prices for many noncitrus fruit, including apples and grapes, the leading noncitrus fruit. Prices were also higher for grapefruit, tangerines, and temples as well as for almonds, hazelnuts, macadamia nuts, pecans, and pistachios. At the retail level, higher prices for most fresh fruit in 2003 drove the Consumer Price Index for fresh fruit up 3 percent, to 115.7 (1982-84=100). Among the major fruit commodities, consumers paid higher prices for Red Delicious apples, bananas, Thompson seedless grapes, grapefruit, and navel and Valencia oranges. Anjou pear and lemon prices were lower. Fruit Consumption Nearly Unchanged in 2003 U.S. fruit consumption increased fractionally in 2003 from the year before, following 2 straight years of declines. In 2003, consumption reached 280.3 pounds per person, fresh-weight equivalent, lower than prior years since 1996. The average American consumed 100.4 pounds of fresh fruit and 178.5 pounds fresh-weight equivalent of processed fruit (including juices, canned, frozen, and dried). Consumers ate more noncitrus fruit, both fresh and processed, than the year before, but less citrus fruit, particularly processed citrus which is mostly juice. The smaller Florida orange crop in 2002/03 contributed to the decline in consumption of processed citrus. Most Florida oranges are processed into orange juice which makes up the bulk of citrus consumption in the United States. Although the orange crops were also smaller in Arizona and Texas in 2002/03, more oranges from these crops were processed, while less got sent to the fresh market. Fresh fruit: Fresh fruit consumption increased 1 percent in 2003 to 100.4 pounds per capita. Fresh citrus consumption increased 3 percent, with higher consumption of oranges, tangerines, and limes. Fresh noncitrus consumption was up only fractionally. Higher consumption of fresh apples, apricots, avocados, cherries, mangoes, papayas, pineapples, and strawberries offset lower consumption of bananas, grapes, peaches (including nectarines), and pears, all considered major noncitrus fruit. Bananas continued to be the number one fresh fruit consumed by Americans, followed by apples and oranges. In 2003, Americans consumed 26.2 pounds of bananas per person, almost all of which were imported. While down 2 percent the previous year and the lowest quantity consumed since 1991, it still accounted for over a quarter of all fresh fruit consumption. Consumption of apples increased 3 percent in 2003. While rising for the second straight year to 16.5 pounds per person, this is lower than levels consumed during the 1980s and nineties. In 2003, although domestic fresh-market production was reduced in Washington, the leading apple-producing State, higher imports and the lowest exports since 1990 left more apples for domestic consumption. Consumption of fresh oranges increased 1 percent. While the U.S. orange crop was smaller in 2003, production in California was higher, providing more oranges to the fresh market than the year before. In the same year, California’s grape production declined, driving down overall domestic production. With lower domestic fresh-market production and fewer imports, fresh grape consumption, the fourth most popular fresh fruit among Americans, declined 9 percent. Canned fruit: Total consumption of nine canned fruits, not adjusted for stock changes, increased to 14.93 pounds per person (product-weight basis) in 2003, up 1 percent from 2002 but still lower than prior years since 1995. Increased domestic supplies led to higher consumption of canned apples, sweet and tart cherries, olives, pears, and pineapples. Consumption of canned apricots and peaches fell while consumption of canned plums and prunes remained unchanged. Changes in canned fruit inventories have not been accounted for since 1988 when industry tabulation and publication of carryover data ceased. Examination of the per capita consumption data using a 2-year average helps to compensate for some of the fluctuation in the data. When 2002/03 and 2003/04 are averaged and compared with the previous 2 years, per capita canned consumption actually fell 4 percent, with lower consumption of apples, apricots, tart cherries, peaches, pears, and plums and prunes. Frozen fruit: Per capita consumption of nine types of frozen fruit increased 1 percent in 2003 to 3.48 pounds (product-weight basis). Although showing a small increase, this quantity is 2 percent less than the average frozen fruit consumed during the 1990s. In 2003, consumption increased for blueberries, raspberries, cherries, peaches, and ‘other berries,’ that includes boysenberries and loganberries. Consumption fell for blackberries, strawberries, apples, and apricots. Frozen fruit consumption in the United States was highest in 2001, at 4.17 pounds per person. Berries account for more than half of U.S. frozen fruit consumption, with strawberries leading the way. Although domestic strawberry production, imports, and beginning inventories were all higher in 2003, commercial frozen strawberry pack fell sharply, driving frozen strawberry consumption down to 1.25 pounds per person, from 1.61 pounds in 2002. Dried fruit: Consumption of eight types of dried fruit totaled 2.38 pounds per person (dried basis) in 2003/04, down 6 percent from 2002/03 and the lowest quantity since 1980/81. Raisins and prunes continued to make up the bulk of dried fruits consumed by Americans, accounting for 80 percent of dried fruit consumption in 2003/04. Raisin consumption declined 2 percent in 2003/04, and although Americans consume far less prunes than raisins, prune consumption fell more drastically, down 17 percent. Lower domestic production and imports contributed to the decline in raisin consumption. Meanwhile, domestic supplies were higher for dried prunes but record-high exports left less of the product for domestic consumption. Consumption also fell for apples, dates, and figs. Consumption of dried apricots and peaches were the only two that increased in 2003, with sharply higher imports boosting domestic supplies. Fruit juice: Following 2 straight years of declines, fruit juice consumption in the United States increased 1 percent in 2003/04, reaching 8.29 gallons per person. Consumption increased for all the major fruit juices, except for orange, lemon, and grape. Fifty eight percent of the juice consumed by Americans in 2003/04 was orange juice. Orange juice consumption decreased 1 percent to 4.82 gallons per person. Apple juice consumption was at a record high, increasing 9 percent to 1.95 gallons per person. Apple juice demand was met by increased domestic production and more so by the rise in imports. Pineapple juice consumption continued to climb steadily for the fourth straight year. Although pineapple juice production declined slightly, imports more than compensated to increase total available supply. Tree nuts: Tree nut consumption reached its highest level in 2003/04, at 2.93 pounds per person (shelled basis). While overall domestic production was lower and exports were the highest ever in 2003/04, record-high imports and large beginning inventories helped boost total available supply. Consumers ate more almonds, walnuts, macadamia nuts, and ‘other nuts’ which are mostly imported varieties, such as Brazil nuts, pine nuts, and cashews. Consumption of hazelnuts, pecans, and pistachios declined. Hazelnut and pecans were on the ‘on-year’ of their alternate- bearing cycle in 2003/04, but strong exports for hazelnuts and sharply lower beginning stocks for pecans drove down supplies available for domestic consumption. Almond production was on its ‘off-year’ in 2003/04, but the lower production was compensated by record-high imports and large beginning inventories. Sharply higher imports and continued large beginning stocks helped increase walnut consumption, despite the smaller crop.