June-July 2000

Large Field Crop Supplies Expected Again in 2000/01 Large supplies of major U.S. field crops, along with low prices, are expected again in 2000/01, according to USDA's first forecast for the season. While domestic consumption of most major oilseeds and grains is anticipated to remain strong because of low prices, export prospects will vary by crop, and ending stocks in 2000/01 will build for soybeans, corn, rice, and cotton. Gregory K. Price (202) 694-5315; gprice@ers.usda.gov Large Field Crop Supplies Expected Again in 2000/01, 38 kb Meat and Poultry Production to Continue Record-Setting Pace Red meat and poultry production in 2001 is forecast at around 83 billion pounds, up less than 1 percent from this year’s expected record. Strong consumer demand is likely to maintain hog prices that have risen in 2000, while poultry prices are expected to decline only slightly in 2001. Prices for both fed and feeder cattle will post modest gains. Leland Southard (202) 694-5187; southard@ers.usda.gov Meat and Poultry Production to Continue Record-Setting Pace, 31 kb Garlic: Flavor of the Ages U.S. garlic use has soared, hitting a record-high 3.1 pounds per person in 1999, three times the level in 1989. No other vegetable has experienced stronger growth in demand over the past 10 years. Vigorous demand has resulted in a doubling of U.S. garlic production over each of the last two decades. Output was record large in 1999, and wholesale garlic prices this spring are a third lower than a year earlier. Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253; glucier@ers.usda.gov Garlic: Flavor of the Ages, 93 kb Consolidation in Meatpacking: Causes and Concerns The U.S. meatpacking industry consolidated rapidly in the last two decades. Following the emergence of new and extensive scale economies in meatpacking, intense price competition led to the exit of higher cost smaller plants and their rapid replacement by larger and more efficient plants as well as significant increases in concentration and reductions in costs. A challenge for policymakers is to ensure that a highly concentrated industry--a result of consolidation--does not limit price competition among packers. James M. MacDonald (202) 694-5391; macdonal.usda.gov Consolidation in Meatpacking: Causes and Concerns, 71 kb Organic Foods: Niche Marketers Venture into the Mainstream The organic industry has grown at a remarkable rate during the past several years. Average annual growth in organic food sales is expected to continue at 20-24 percent into the next decade. Rapid growth in demand presents the organic industry with a major challenge--to ensure an adequate supply while maintaining product integrity as commodities move along the marketing chain. USDA’s proposed national organic standards, expected to be finalized this year, will provide a national definition of organic production, which is among the essential elements for assuring product integrity. Carolyn Dimitri (202) 694-5252; cdimitri@ers.usda.gov Organic Foods: Niche Marketers Venture into the Mainstream, 109 kb Farming’s Role in the Rural Economy The U.S. rural economy remains strong, largely unaffected by low farm prices of recent years. Agriculture (including ag-related industries such as input suppliers and food retailing) is not the primary economic engine of rural America, where the nonagricultural economy has grown steadily, outpacing agriculture’s growth and relative importance as a source of jobs and income. The growing service orientation of the U.S. economy suggests that the key to survival and growth for rural communities is developing and attracting service-sector businesses. Fred Gale (202) 694-5349; fgale@ers.usda.gov Farming's Role in the Rural Economy, 405 kb Environmental Payments to Farmers: Issues of Program Design Interest is growing in broadening the array of government programs that would improve the environmental performance of agriculture while providing income support to agricultural producers. Government "agri-environmental" payments compensate producers for maintaining beneficial impacts of agriculture or mitigating adverse environmental impacts. Net benefits of agri-environmental payments programs will be greater if policymakers, in designing programs, assign higher priority to activities and practices that are more valued, less costly, and/or offer flexibility to farmers. Roger Claassen (202) 694-5473; claassen@ers.usda.gov Environmental Payments to Farmers: Issues of Program Design , 141 kb