Decline in U.S. Farm Income Tempered by Government Payments
The cumulative effect of 4 consecutive years of bumper
crops in major agricultural producing countries is bearing
down on U.S. farm income. Net farm income is forecast at
$40.4 billion in 2000, a decline of $7.6 billion from the
preliminary estimate for 1999. In 1998 and 1999, the U.S.
government helped maintain farm income and temper financial
hardship for many producers by enacting legislation to increase
assistance to farmers. Government payments reached an estimated
record $22.7 billion in 1999, and are forecast to decline
to $17.2 billion in 2000. For more information, contact:
Mitchell Morehart.
Decline in U.S. Farm Income in 2000 Tempered by Government
Payments
U.S. Economy Shows Continuing Strength
U.S. economic expansion continued in 1999 near the 4-percent
rate of 1997 and 1998, but growth in Gross Domestic Product
is expected to slow slightly in 2000 to 3.5 percent. Over
2.5 million jobs will be added in 2000, and compensation will
rise 3.6 percent overall, triggering a strong rise in personal
income. The solid consumer spending growth of 1999 will slow
in 2000, but should be strong. Robust economic growth in 1999
was spurred by consumer and investment spending, which more
than offset the rise in the trade deficit. For more information,
contact: David A. Torgerson.
Continuing
Strength Seen for the U.S. Economy in 2000
Analyzing Farm Safety-Net Scenarios
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) has analyzed the concept
of government assistance to agriculture based on ensuring
some minimum standard of living for farm households. Guided
by examples from existing Federal programs for moderate-income
households, ERS constructed several safety-net scenarios for
assisting farm households, retaining current government commodity
programs. Results indicate, for example, that households of
almost all farms classified as limited-resource in the ERS
farm typology would receive safety-net payments, compared
with less than one-fifth who received direct government payments
in 1997. For more information, contact: Mitchell
Morehart.
A
Safety Net for Farm Households?
Ag Trade & International Financial Crises
The 1997-99 international financial crises led to currency
depreciation, reduced economic growth, and higher interest
rates in the crisis countries. Market impacts in crisis and
in noncrisis countries varied, depending on a range of domestic
economic factors. For the U.S., the financial crises, along
with depressed global commodity prices decreased the agricultural
trade surplus, while lowering costs for imports. Recovery
of the crisis economies in 1999 will help boost the volume
of U.S. agricultural exports in FY2000, although overall value
is expected to remain flat. For more information, contact:
Suchada Langley.
Agricultural
Trade & the International Financial Crises
Growing Pressure on China’s Water Resources
In China, one of the world’s most water-deficient economies,
water scarcity is viewed as a major threat to long-term food
security. While the agriculture sector is by far the largest
user of China’s water resources, rapid population expansion
and economic growth are raising demand for urban and industrial
use. The dominant trend is for both policy makers and farmers
to begin adjusting to conditions of less available water for
agriculture. The effects on crop mix could have consequences
for trade. For more information, contact:
Frederick W. Crook.
Water
Pressure in China: Growth Strains Resources
Cigarette Consumption Declines As Prices Climb
U.S. tobacco growers continue to be significantly affected
by the November 1998 tobacco settlement between cigarette
manufacturers and state attorneys general. Manufacturers increased
prices to cover costs of the settlement, pushing cigarette
consumption to the lowest level since 1957 and reducing demand
for tobacco leaf. With cigarette and tobacco leaf exports
also falling, grower incomes are likely to decline. For more
information, contact: Thomas
Capehart, Jr.
Declining Cigarette Consumption Follows Price Hikes
Tree Nut Supply Bountiful
Record world supplies of almonds, walnuts, and hazelnuts--the
three most important tree nuts in terms of global production
and trade--are pushing availability of tree nuts to all-time
highs and depressing grower prices. This season’s large supply
and low nut prices overall will likely boost consumption and
trade volume. U.S. exports of almonds are forecast to rise
13 percent from last year, due partly to a weakening U.S.
dollar. Exports of U.S. walnuts are expected to reach a record
high. For more information, contact: Doyle
Johnson.
Tree
Nut Supply Bountiful |
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