Agricultural Outlook March 2002

Jeanne McLaughlin, executive editor

Agricultural Outlook No. (289) March 2002

About this magazine

AO is the main source of USDA's farm and food price forecasts. AO emphasizes the short-term outlook for all major areas of the agricultural economy. It also presents long-term analyses of such issues as U.S. agricultural policy, trade forecasts and export-market development, food safety, the environment, and farm financial institutions. Each issue includes 30 pages of data on individual commodities, the general economy, U.S. farm trade, farm income, production expenses, input use, prices received and paid by farmers, per capita food consumption, and related issues. AO is published 10 times per year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Materials may be reprinted without permission. Contents have been approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Release of summary for the April 2002 issue: March 20, 2002. Release of complete text-only version: March 21.

In this report ...

Articles are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

Contents, 64 kb

In This Issue, 45 kb

Commodity Spotlight

• Peanut Consumption Rebounding Despite Market Uncertanties—In the U.S., most peanuts are consumed directly as food (peanuts and peanut products) rather than as vegetable oil or in animal feed. Food use has rebounded from a decline in the early 1990s, and is forecast at record levels in 2001/02. Even so, new challenges since the mid-1990s have put downward pressure on average farm prices and cash receipts. The prospect of major changes to the peanut program under new farm bill proposals is also a source of uncertainty for peanut producers. Erik Dohlman (202) 694-5308, 95 kb.

• Fresh Snap Beans: No Strings Attached—On any given day, about 2 percent of Americans consume fresh snap beans, popularly known as green beans or string beans. Per capita use of fresh-market snap beans has been on the rise over the past decade, reaching 2.1 pounds in 2000. Spurred by strong demand, particularly from the fresh market, total snap bean production in 1998-2000 was higher than in 1988-1990. Consumer interest in nutrition and healthy lifestyles should support further growth in fresh snap bean consumption. Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253, 149 kb.

World Agriculture & Trade

• Food Aid: How Effective in Addressing Food Security?—How effective have food aid programs been in addressing the needs of recipient countries? What does this imply for future effectiveness? Analysts at USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) evaluated food security situations in 67 developing countries by first projecting the gaps between estimated food consumption and several consumption targets through the next decade. ERS then calculated the food gaps that would remain even after food aid allocations, using the most recently available food aid data. Stacey Rosen (202) 694-5164, 56 kb.

• Middle East/North Africa Region: A Major Market for U.S. Feeds—The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region provides a substantial market for U.S. coarse grains, oilseeds, and meals. Prospects are for this market to continue growing. During the 1990s, the MENA region became increasingly dependent on feed imports to support its expanding livestock and poultry sectors. In 2000, MENA was the largest foreign market for U.S. barley and soybean meal and second-largest for U.S. corn. The U.S. will continue to be a major supplier, but will face price competition from other countries. Fawzi Taha (202) 694-5178, 95 kb.

Policy

• Farm Income, Finance, & Credit Outlook For 2002—The overall financial state of the U.S. agricultural sector is sound, as evidenced by continuing increases in asset values and equity levels. Net cash income before government payments is expected to increase for the third straight year and exceed $40 billion for the first time since 1998. The level of government payments will have a large impact on the economic outlook for 2002. The AO article includes an analysis of payment levels above those implied by current law, estimating their potential impact on 2002 farm income. Mitchell Morehart (202) 694-5581, 130 kb.

• Safety Nets: An Issue in Global Agricultural Trade Liberalization—Global trade liberalization is expected to benefit developing countries that are net agricultural exporters and can respond to expanded opportunities. Other low-income countries, however, could experience greater food insecurity as liberalization leads to higher and perhaps more variable prices for some commodities. Current global safety nets, including food aid, are inadequate to stabilize food supplies for vulnerable countries. New proposals are being assessed that could help stabilize grain import prices or manage import costs. Michael Trueblood (202) 694-5169, 187 kb.

Statistical Indicators, 176 kb

Entire issue, 602 kb Web feature

USDA projections for 2002 and for 2002-11

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Updated date: March 2002