Agricultural Outlook December 2002
Nora Brooks, Economics Editor
No. (297)
December 2002
About this magazine
Agricultural Outlook was published by the Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture. Contents have been approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Materials may be reprinted without permission.
Notice to readers: This is the final issue of Agricultural Outlook. ERS will begin publishing a new magazine in February 2003. The new magazine will cover the full range of ERS's research program. It will be available in print and also as an Internet e-zine that will be updated with new material between publication dates. AO tables will continue to be published on the ERS website.
In this report ...
Articles are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
Contents, 473 kb
In This Issue, 460 kb
Agricultural Economy
- Yearend Review: U.S. Ag Markets—The tightest grain and oilseed supplies in several years are boosting prices and forcing adjustments for end-users. Drought in many regions slashed crop and forage production, stressed cattle operations, and raised costs for livestock producers. Crop markets are focusing on how 2003 plantings will respond to higher prices. Livestock prices are expected to rise in 2003 as total meat and poultry production declines for the first time in 21 years. Dennis Shields (202) 694-5193, 501 kb.
Briefs
- Tortoises Triumph: Gradual Changes Transform the Dairy Industry—Today’s dairy industry is transformed from the one profiled in the inaugural issue of Agricultural Outlook (June 1975). Some economic forces driving the gradual but continual transformation may continue to be major shapers of the dairy industry. James Miller (202) 694-5184, 465 kb.
- Grape Expectations: Abundant Quantity, High Quality—U.S. consumers are finding an abundance of high-quality fresh-market grapes at slightly higher prices this year. Despite increased production (the third largest ever), grower prices in 2002 are up from 2001 due to higher quality. Foreign markets for grapes and grape products are increasingly important. Agnes Perez (202) 694-5255, 480 kb.
- Smaller 2002/03 Citrus Crop May Boost Grower Prices—The 2002/03 orange, grapefruit, tangerine, and Temple crops are expected to be smaller, while lemon and tangelo crops should be larger. As a result of an expected smaller citrus crop, growers are likely to receive higher prices which in turn could improve revenues for some of the citrus industries. Susan Pollack (202) 694-5251, 475 kb.
Commodity Spotlight
- Holiday Sales Look Bright for Christmas Trees & Poinsettias—Christmas tree sales depend not only on consumer budgets, but also on competition from artificial trees. With estimated retail prices for real trees averaging $36 per tree in 2002, sales should approach $1.2 billion, a rise of 3 percent from 2001. Poinsettia sales are expected to continue growing, up 2 percent to $260 million at wholesale. Alberto Jerardo (202) 694-5266, 498 kb.
The Livestock Sector
- Controversies in Livestock Pricing—Some livestock producers allege that aspects of the livestock pricing system contribute to low prices. Vertical coordination, including packer/producer contract arrangements, has been accompanied by declining use of spot markets. The benefit of spot markets is easy dissemination of price information. Controversies continue over the extent to which structural changes and pricing methods have affected producer prices. William Hahn (202) 694-5175, 556 kb.
- Where's the Beef? Small Farms Produce Most Cattle—Small operations produce the majority of beef cattle in the U.S., and control 74 percent of land dedicated to beef cattle production. These small enterprises can be divided roughly into full-time operations (with agricultural production a significant source of income), and part-time operations. Differences among them—and with large ones—have implications for farm policy. A. James Cash II (202) 694-5149, 538 kb.
Food & Marketing
- Globalization of the Soft Drink Industry—The beverage industry is a bellwether for the food industry, where globalization has affected structure. Soft drink companies produce for domestic and foreign markets, license their products, and invest in plants abroad. Major shifts in the business environment since the end of the 1990s include refocusing from national to international, expansion across product lines, and sharpening competition. Chris Bolling (202) 694-5322, 623 kb.
World Agriculture & Trade
- Enhancing Food Safety in the APEC Region—Changing consumption patterns, lengthening of supply chains, and the rising share of perishable food products in trade are generating food safety concerns in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region. APEC countries are increasingly implementing quality and risk management systems and training programs to make food supplies safer. William Coyle (202) 694-5216, 572 kb.
- Commodity Policies of the U.S., EU, & Japan—Commodity policies of the U.S., the European Union, and Japan address some of the same goals, but there have always been key differences in approach and in their policy instruments. In recent years, efforts to encourage freer trade in farm commodities have led each toward less trade-distorting policies. Anne Effland (202) 694-5319, 524 kb.
- Shaping the Global Market for High-Value Foods—The global market for high-value foods is subject to an ever-changing product mix demanded by wealthier consumers. And as developing countries' income and populations grow, they account for a rising share of global food sales. Multinational food companies are rapidly restructuring their operations to meet evolving world food demand. Mark Gehlhar (202) 694-5273, 949 kb.
Special Article
- What's at Stake in the Next Trade Round—As the next round of multilateral trade negotiations nears, attention is frequently trained on commodity-by-commodity impacts of trade liberalization. But the most compelling economic story is the potential for trade liberalization to accelerate income growth in developing countries. Income growth raises demand for food and shifts demand to high-value products such as meat. Susan Offutt (202) 694-5000, 1,270 kb.
Ring in the New
Statistical Indicators
5-Year Index (1998-2002)
Entire issue, 10,260 kb.
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Updated date: December 2002
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