U.S. Wheat Supplies Remain Large in 1999/2000
Large beginning stocks of wheat will offset a forecast decline
in U.S. production, leaving U.S. supplies at 3.4 billion bushels
in 1999/2000, up slightly from last year and the highest since
1987/88. Although global trade will pick up while world production
declines moderately, little if any increase in world prices
is expected because major wheat exporters' supplies are large.
For more information, contact: Mack
N. Leath.
Agriculture & the Evolution of Tariff Bargaining
Preparations have already begun for the ninth round of international
trade talks, to be launched at the World Trade Organization
Ministerial Conference in December. While agriculture had
been included in each round, it was not until the Uruguay
Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations (1986-94) that real
progress was made in negotiating overall reductions in barriers
to agricultural trade. A review of how reductions in tariffs
for manufactured goods was accomplished reveals some valuable
lessons for future negotiations on agricultural tariffs. For
more information, contact: John
Wainio.
Korea's Agricultural Imports Recovering From Financial
Crisis
Beginning in late 1997 and extending into 1998, South Korea
experienced a major economic shock—including devaluation of
its currency, a decline in the production of goods and services,
and temporary inability to obtain credit. Agricultural imports
fell by 28 percent in calendar-year 1998. The economy is now
rebounding, following strong intervention by the government
and the International Monetary Fund, and agricultural imports
are rising again. For more information, contact: John
Dyck.
Facing the Methyl Bromide Phaseout
Public and private research programs are exploring alternatives
to methyl bromide, a widely used agricultural pesticide
that is being phased out by parties to the Montreal Protocol.
In 1992, methyl bromide was classified as a substance that
depletes the stratospheric ozone layer. Many U.S. users
of methyl bromide are concerned that alternative practices
currently available to replace it will be less effective,
resulting in financial losses. For more information, contact:
Craig Osteen.
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Buildup: Impacts on Ag-Sector
Returns
Efforts to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution come
at a cost to all sectors of the economy, including agriculture.
But a program to pay farmers to develop emissions-absorbing
"carbon sinks" on agricultural land could add to farm income.
Shifting cropland to forest and grasses and using conservation
tillage could reduce atmospheric GHG's. Private industry or
government could pay farmers to engage in specific cultural
practices that would remove GHG's from the air, reducing the
need for more costly cuts in GHG emissions. For more information,
contact: Howard McDowell.
Crop & Revenue Insurance: Bargain Rates But Still a
Hard Sell
Federal crop and revenue insurance subsidies alter the tradeoff
between expected income and risk exposure, so operators may
attain significant risk reduction at relatively low cost,
while actually increasing expected (i.e., longrun) returns.
Government outlays for insurance programs pay a portion of
producers' premiums on approved policies, and reimburse private
insurance carriers for the costs of selling and underwriting
policies, adjusting losses, and processing policy data. Yet
the rate of participation in insurance programs has remained
significantly less than universal. For more information, contact:
Randy Schnepf.
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