CWS-15C-01, March 31, 2015
Managing China's unprecedented volume of cotton stockpiles will require difficult choices by Chinese authorities. China’s large role in world cotton markets means its recent policy changes could reduce world cotton prices significantly.
SSSM-319, March 16, 2015
The Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook for March 2015 reviews the sugar and sweeteners market conditions for the United States and Mexico.
AES-85, February 19, 2015
February 2015 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $11 billion in 2015; imports to reach new record high.
SSSM-318, February 17, 2015
The Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook for February 2015 reviews the sugar and sweetener market conditions for the United States and Mexico.
Amber Waves, February 02, 2015
Fast-developing Vietnam is following in the footsteps of Japan and its model of export-oriented industrialization. Vietnamese agricultural imports are rising fast and appear to be following the historical growth pattern of Japan’s imports. Trade policy in both countries has protected agricultural ...
SSSM-317, January 16, 2015
The Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook for January 2015 reviews the sugar and sweetener outlook for the United States and Mexico.
SSSM-316, December 16, 2014
The Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook for December 2014 reviews the sugar and sweetener outlook for the United States and Mexico.
LDPM-245-01, December 02, 2014
The EU is one of the world’s largest producers and consumers of beef, pork, and poultry, but EU tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) policies continue to limit imports of U.S. meats.
AES-84, December 02, 2014
December 2014 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $9 billion in 2015; imports to reach new record.
SSSM-315, November 17, 2014
Ending 2015 fiscal year U.S. sugar stocks forecast to decline compared with fiscal year 2014.
ERR-176, October 28, 2014
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership is expected to increase the value of intraregional agricultural trade by about 6 percent in 2025, and increase U.S. agricultural exports to the region by 5 percent, compared with the baseline.
EIB-129, October 28, 2014
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership would increase agricultural exports to Japan from TPP partners, especially in the rice, beef, and dairy sectors, but would have only a marginal impact on Japan's agricultural production.
EIB-130, October 28, 2014
Vietnam’s agricultural trade gains from TPP may be limited. The United States and Japan are expected to be the primary markets for agricultural export growth. Vietnam’s consumer-oriented sectors provide the largest areas for import growth.
SSSM-314, October 17, 2014
Ending 2015 fiscal year U.S. sugar stocks predicted to rise.
SSSM-313, September 17, 2014
Commerce Department announces an affirmative preliminary determination in its countervailing duty investigation of sugar imports from Mexico.
AES-83, August 28, 2014
August 2014 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2014 and 2015 are discussed in this report. Record-high imports and exports expected in 2014. Exports to fall 7 percent in 2015; imports to reach new record.
ERR-168, July 07, 2014
ERS reports the rates at which inspection of fruit and vegetable imports into the United States result in phytosanitary treatments at the border, and finds little evidence that phytosanitary regulations affect imports significantly.
AES-82, May 29, 2014
The May 2014 quarterly USDA forecasts for agricultural trade in the United States in FY 2014 are presented and discussed in this report.
AES-81, February 20, 2014
The February 2014 quarterly USDA forecasts for agricultural trade in the United States in FY 2014 are presented and discussed in this report.
AES-80, December 02, 2013
U.S. agricultural exports to fall 3 percent in fiscal 2014. Imports to rise 5 percent to record high.
WHS-13I-01, October 23, 2013
Afghanistan’s milling industry has been slow to rebuild, due to highly variable domestic wheat supplies and competition from imported flour, largely from Pakistan where wheat producers and flour millers receive Government support.
AES-79, August 29, 2013
U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2014 are forecast down from the previous year's record-high. Exports are expected to fall $5 billion to $135 billion. Imports in fiscal 2014 are expected reach a record $113 billion.
AES-78, May 30, 2013
Record U.S. agricultural exports are forecast for fiscal 2013, up $3.7 billion from the year before to $139.5 billion. Imports are also projected to be at a record high, up $7.6 billion from fiscal 2012 to $111 billion.
Amber Waves, April 09, 2013
The U.S has embarked on negotiations to create a Trans-Pacific Partnership and a comprehensive trans-Atlantic agreement with the EU that will liberalize and promote trade. The U.S. horticulture industry has an interest in the outcome of both negotiations, as fruit and vegetable trade continues to be...
AES-77, February 21, 2013
Fiscal 2013 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at a record $142 billion, $6.2 billion above 2012 exports. U.S. imports are forecast at a record $112.5 billion, $9.1 billion higher than in fiscal 2012.
AES-76, November 29, 2012
Fiscal 2013 agricultural exports are forecast at a record $145 billion, up $9.2 billion above 2012 exports. Imports at record $115 billion.
ERR-142, November 27, 2012
Using the example of Indian mangoes, ERS finds that irradiation and other regulatory costs appear low relative to other logistical and marketing costs for fresh produce entering the U.S. market and sold in niche outlets.
CWS-12h01, October 23, 2012
Uzbekistan is the third largest cotton supplier for world markets and accounts for two-thirds of Central Asia’s output. ERS examines the role of government policies in future prospects for cotton production and exports.
ERR-138, August 09, 2012
Focusing on two agricultural subsectors—commodity foods and manufactured foods—ERS quantifies the extent to which RTAs have expanded trade between member countries and altered trade between member and nonmember countries.
TB-1933, July 18, 2012
This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural
Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA’s Economic Research Service.
PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The
model, consistent with economic theory, provides a flexib...
AES-74, May 31, 2012
This outlook report offers, on a quarterly basis, the U.S. agricultural import and export outlook, as well as the year-to-date value and volume of U.S. agricultural exports and imports, by commodity and region.
OCE-121, February 13, 2012
This report provides longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector through 2021. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
Amber Waves, December 09, 2011
The NAFTA governments are seeking more open trading relationships with non-NAFTA countries, such as China, Colombia, Panama, Japan, and South Korea, as well as increased commerce within the North American free-trade area.
GFA-22, July 15, 2011
ERS assesses the food security situation in 77 developing countries, including estimates for 2011 and projections for the next decade. The report is the latest in an annual series.
ERR-113, April 12, 2011
ERS looks at the how reciprocal trade agreements affect trade between member and nonmember countries, as well as among member countries, in the world agricultural marketplace.
ERR-114, February 24, 2011
A new and expanded ERS food dollar series provides a more detailed answer to the question of where our food dollars go (e.g., the farm share and the share among the various supply chain industry groups)
FDS-10k-01, December 09, 2010
Growth in corn dry-mill ethanol production has surged in the past several years, simultaneously creating a coproduct—distillers’ grains (DDGS). Many in the U.S. feed industry were concerned about the size of this new feed source and whether it could be used entirely by the feed industry, but they al...
VGS-341-01, December 01, 2010
This report examines the significance of dry bean trade to the member countries of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), provides a detailed understanding of supply, demand, and policy in the U.S. and Mexican dry bean sectors, and considers the outlook for these industries.
LDPM-194-01, August 30, 2010
This report provides a broad overview of the beef market in Japan, including consumer’s preferences, domestic production practices, domestic and trade policies, and market outlook.
WHS-10H01, August 25, 2010
This report provides the results of ERS research on the economic consequences of ending the USDA Karnal bunt certification program for U.S. exports to countries that ban import of wheat from countries known to have the disease. USDA currently issues certificates that U.S. wheat shipments are from ar...
FTS-341-01, April 21, 2010
This report reviews Japanese government programs to support domestic fruit production and how these policies affect fruit consumption in one of the largest markets for U.S. fruits. Production targets and subsidies aim to bolster the supply of domestic fruit, while phytosanitary measures and tariffs ...
EIB-52, July 07, 2009
Food imports from China more than tripled in value from 2001 to 2008. ERS indicates the types of foods imported, analyzes FDA refusals of shipments, and describes China’s food safety regulation.
ERR-59, July 16, 2008
ERS examines the implications and potential impacts of the first major reform of the 2005 reform of the European Union’s sugar policy, the first major reform of the policy since 1968.
EIB-37, July 09, 2008
Investment in India’s agriculture sector has been sluggish since the early 1990s, but the policy environment has grown more investor friendly and private investment appears to be responding.
WRS-0703, August 22, 2007
U.S. exports of soybeans and cotton to China have boomed in recent years, but the undervalued exchange rate for the Chinese yuan keeps prices of most other U.S. food and agricultural products more expensive than Chinese products. On average, Chinese retail food prices are about a fourth of U.S. pric...
ERR-41, May 03, 2007
The pronounced market cycles and declines in per capita consumption of India’s major food staples, as well as budgetary concerns, are creating pressure for Indian policymakers to adjust longstanding policies.
RCS-200601, December 08, 2006
U.S. rice farming is a high-cost, large-scale production operation that depends on the global market for about half its annual sales. Government payments per acre are high compared with other program crops, as is the share of the sector’s income accounted for by payments. While domestic demand for r...
ERR-28, November 14, 2006
Current dynamics in world dairy markets and the potential for global and domestic trade policy reform are bringing the U.S. dairy sector to a new crossroads as it faces competitive forces from outside its borders. Those forces—demand for new products by consumers in industrialized countries, changes...
LDPM-146-01, September 08, 2006
Uncertainty continues to shape the forecasts for animal products markets in 2006. Potential and actual animal disease outbreaks, consumer sensitivities, volatile exchange rates, and growing competition from producers in other countries cloud U.S. trade prospects for major meats. Loss of U.S. trade m...
LDPM-14501, July 24, 2006
Over time, shifts in consumer demands, in the location and structure of milk production, in industry concentration, in international markets, and in trade agreements have dramatically altered the U.S. dairy industry and changed the context for dairy policies and the sector as a whole. In the future,...
FAU-11401, June 30, 2006
U.S. agricultural exports reached a new record in fiscal 2005 at $62.4 billion, but only $1 million higher than the record set in fiscal 2004. While California and Iowa continued their reign as top exporting states, Texas regained its third place position ahead of Illinois; Indiana moved back into t...
LDPM-14301, June 09, 2006
The first confirmed cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States had significant effects on trade and prices of U.S. cattle and beef. However, these incidents occurred during a period of low U.S. beef supplies, near-record beef prices, and strong domestic demand fo...
ERR-17, April 19, 2006
This report reviews recent developments in India's oilseed sector and assesses the implications of current and potential future policy reforms for the oilseed sector. Extensive policy intervention continues to affect oilseed production, trade, and processing in India. Findings suggest that India's c...
VGS-31301, April 17, 2006
This report describes the economic characteristics of the U.S. fruit and vegetable industry, providing supply, demand, and policy background for an industry that accounts for nearly a third of U.S. crop cash receipts and a fifth of U.S. agricultural exports.
OCS-200601, April 04, 2006
This report addresses key domestic and international market and policy developments that have affected the U.S. soybean sector in recent years. It provides an analysis of the competition between crops for domestic farmland and the international supply and demand for soybean products. Also covered ar...
ERR-16, February 22, 2006
This report examines issues related to modeling complex policy regimes that affect international dairy markets using a partial equilibrium, multiple-commodity, multiregion model of agricultural policy and trade. Average bound tariffs for dairy remain among the highest of all agricultural commodities...
FTS-31901, January 11, 2006
Strong economic growth is projected to lead to continued expansion of Indian apple demand, but the high cost of domestic and imported apples compared with other Indian fruit is likely to limit consumption to higher income consumers. U.S. apples have accounted for the largest share of Indian imports,...
OCS-05I01, October 26, 2005
Like producers of other agricultural commodities, U.S. peanut growers in recent years have confronted pressures from market forces and the impacts of policy developments, both domestic and international. Most notably, peanut policy was transformed in 2002 by the elimination of a decades-old marketin...
FTS-31801, October 26, 2005
The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled in June 2005 that Japan's phytosanitary protocol related to fire blight for imports of U.S. apples was not justified and was in breach of Japan's WTO commitments. In August 2005, Japan issued a new phytosanitary protocol that complies with the WTO ruling. Wit...
TBS-25901, September 30, 2005
U.S. tobacco product manufacturers use foreign-produced leaf in items such as cigarettes, cigars, chewing tobacco, and pipe tobacco. Imports peaked in the mid-1990s, but remain at historically high levels. The popularity of generic cigarettes-which use cheaper imported leaf-and increases in domestic...
FAU-10201, July 08, 2005
U.S. agricultural exports reached a record $62.2 billion in fiscal 2004, boosted in part by a declining U.S. dollar. Illinois moved ahead of Texas to rank third among U.S. agricultural exporting States after California and Iowa, as fiscal 2004 U.S. agricultural exports continued to expand. Arkansas ...
CWS-05D01, June 02, 2005
India's prospects are changing now that the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) no longer governs world textile trade. Decades of industrial policies that were both inward-oriented and biased toward small-scale production continue to influence India's textile trade prospects. While the recent introduction ...
Amber Waves, June 01, 2005
The agricultural economies of Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. are increasingly behaving as if they form one market. Not only is U.S. agricultural trade with Canada and Mexico on a clear upward trend, but firms are reorganizing their activities around continental markets for both inputs and outputs.
LDPM-13101, May 26, 2005
The beef, pork, and poultry industries of Mexico, Canada, and the United States have tended to become more economically integrated over the past two decades. Sanitary barriers, which are designed to protect people and animals from diseases, are some of the most significant barriers to fuller integra...
AER-840, February 01, 2005
This report examines global food trade patterns and the role of WTO market access rules in shaping the composition of global food trade.
LDPM-12501, November 24, 2004
About 8 percent of the hogs slaughtered in the United States in 2004 will originate in Canada—many more than 10 years ago. Canadian hogs have flowed into the United States in response to significant structural changes in the U.S. pork industry, concurrent with policy changes in Canada. This, combine...
OCS-04J01, October 29, 2004
Rapid demand growth for soybeans and soybean products has outstripped supply in China over the past two decades. Liberalization in production and trade policies has facilitated the country's booming soybean imports, though some recent policy changes have disrupted imports. Despite short-term disrupt...
WRS-0408, October 12, 2004
China's rapid economic growth has been driven by high rates of investment, gains in productivity, and liberalized foreign trade and investment. China's growth is likely to continue, but the Chinese economy faces some possibly unsustainable pressures.
Amber Waves, September 01, 2004
In 2003 and 2004, the European Union adopted major reforms to its agricultural policy. The changes will have important implications for the way the EU supports its farm sector, for its obligations under current WTO agreements, and for its position in ongoing WTO agricultural negotiations.
WRS-0407, August 25, 2004
The European Union continued to reform its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2003-04, building on the reforms of 1992 and 1999. The centerpiece of the latest reforms is the introduction of a single farm payment (SFP), which is paid to EU farmers based on historical payments unrelated to current pr...
Amber Waves, April 01, 2004
In May 2004, eight Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), plus Cyprus and Malta, will join the European Union (EU). This enlargement of the EU, the largest in its history, will bring profound changes.
AIB-789-7, February 28, 2004
This research summarizes three case studies of how trade in seafood products can be affected by food safety concerns.
AIB-789-6, February 28, 2004
This research brief discusses regulations intended to control mycotoxins in the food supply, and examines their implications for international trade.
AIB-789-5, February 28, 2004
This report examines how U.S. and other nations responded to foodborne illness outbreaks traced to internationally-traded food.
AIB-789-4, February 28, 2004
This research summarizes three case studies of how trade in meat and poultry products can be affected by food safety concerns.
AIB-789-3, February 28, 2004
This research brief examines the conceptual relationships between food safety and international trade, and discusses ways to resolve safety-related trade disputes.
AIB-789-2, February 28, 2004
This research brief examines the conceptual relationships between food safety and international trade.
TB-2003-01, February 12, 2004
U.S. imports (arrivals) of foreign-grown tobacco leaf and stems slipped from 587 million pounds in 2001/02 (July-June) to 580 million pounds during 2002/03 (July-June). Cigar and unstemmed flue-cured imports advanced. Burley, stemmed flue-cured, and stems arrivals slipped. During the same period, im...
WRS-0302, December 03, 2003
Analysis of world meat production reveals poultry as the fastest growing livestock sector in many middle-income countries, including Egypt. While income growth fuels rising demand for meat, other factors often determine how that demand will be satisfied. Domestic and trade policies, as well as resou...
Amber Waves, November 01, 2003
Global food trade is expanding, providing consumers with access to a wider year-round variety of foods at lower prices. Trade expansion, however, has brought into sharper focus the divergence among countries’ food safety regulations and standards.
AIB-784, September 30, 2003
Economic change and market dynamics have fundamentally altered the structure and performance of agricultural markets in the United States, Canada, and Mexico within the last 25 years. Many factors have helped shape the current North American food and fiber system, including technological change, dom...
Amber Waves, September 01, 2003
The article describes the U.S. strategy in the area of agricultural trade reform. The strategy contains two distinct but reinforcing elements: (1) multilateralism, in which the United States actively participates in the agricultural trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization; and (2) region...
WAOB-2003-1, February 10, 2003
This report provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2012. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
GFA-13, April 01, 2002
The Food Security Assessment report provides food gap and hunger projections for 67 potentially food insecure countries in North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and NIS.
LDPM-8901, December 07, 2001
New negotiations on trade in agriculture were recently initiated by the World Trade Organization. The negotiations focus on extending the gains to world trade achieved in the 1994 Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA), which limited the use of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, export subsidie...
VGS-285-01, August 30, 2001
This article discusses issues affecting U.S. trade in fruits and vegetables that are likely to be considered during upcoming trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Tariff reductions, tariff-rate quotas, export subsidies, and domestic support are discussed, as are the impacts of an...
AER-802, May 15, 2001
Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. This report quantifies the costs of global agricultural distortions and the potential benefits of their full elimination. The report concludes that elimin...
AIB-765-5, April 26, 2001
This issue paper discusses how agricultural trade liberalization will affect low-income, food-insecure countries. Most countries and regions show modest reductions in food insecurity from liberalization due to domestic supply response that reacts to high prices.
WAOB-2001-1, February 22, 2001
This report provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2010. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
AER-797, January 25, 2001
Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. Trade barriers lower demand for trade partners’ products, domestic subsidies can induce an oversupply of agricultural products which depresses world price...
AER-783, November 01, 1999
State trading enterprises are far more prevalent in agriculture than in other industries. STEs account for significant shares of world trade in grains, dairy products, and sugar. Attempts to measure the impacts of STEs and their activities on international agricultural trade have just begun. This re...
TB-1876, March 01, 1999
Technical trade barriers are increasingly important in the international trade of agricultural products. Designing technical trade measures that can satisfy the growing demand for food safety, product differentiation, environmental amenities, and product information at the lowest cost to the consume...
AER-771, November 02, 1998
Regional trade agreements (RTA's) have become a fixture in the global trade arena. Their advocates contend that RTA's can serve as building blocks for multilateral trade liberalization. Their opponents argue that these trade pacts will divert trade from more efficient nonmember producing countries. ...
AIB-745, October 01, 1998
Please also see Regional Trade Agreements and U.S. Agriculture. This report summarizes the implications of regionalism for the United States, focusing on the effects of major RTA's on U.S. agriculture. Regional trade agreements (RTA's) have become a fixture in the global trade arena. Their advocates...
AIB-742, August 03, 1998
Even though farming accounts for only about 1 percent of the total national workforce, it is at the core of the food and fiber system. The system is one of the largest sectors in the U.S. economy, and is comprised of industries related to farming, including feed, seed, fertilizer, machinery, food pr...
AER-760, March 01, 1998
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become the leading means for U.S. processed food companies to participate in international markets. Affiliates of U.S.-owned food processing companies had $30 billion in sales throughout the Western Hemisphere in 1995, nearly 4 times the level of processed food ex...
WAOB-98-1, February 02, 1998
This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2007. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The baseline assumes no shocks and is based on specific assumption...
AER-758, January 01, 1998
Growth of U.S. agriculture is dependent on increases in productivity, three-fourths of which is accounted for by public investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) and infrastructure, according to this research. Productivity growth in U.S. agriculture benefits consumers by putting down...
TB-1858, May 01, 1997
This report quantifies the potential impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector computable general equilibrium model for world trade and production. Integrating China and Taiwan into the global trad...
WAOB-97-1, April 23, 1997
This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2005 that incorporate provisions of the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (1996 Farm Act). The baseline assumes that the new farm legislation remains in effect through 2005. Projections cover ...
TB-1854, February 01, 1997
This report develops a method, called trade-share accounting (TSA), that establishes the relationship between trade structure and market share. U.S. market shares are commonly used as measures of export performance in international markets and are frequently cited statistics in USDA publications. A ...
AER-734, September 11, 1996
More than 60 percent of U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 1995 went to members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC). U.S. exports to APEC surged 23 percent over FY1994, reaching a record $33 billion.
A new ERS study, APEC Agriculture and Trade: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation R...
AER-741, August 01, 1996
Microbial pathogens in food cause an estimated 6.5-33 million cases of human illness and up to 9,000 deaths in the United States each year. Over 40 different foodborne microbial pathogens, including fungi, viruses, parasites, and bacteria, are believed to cause human illnesses. For six bacterial pat...
AER-739, July 01, 1996
The United States produces nearly 20 percent of the world's cotton and ranks second to China as the largest producing country. While over 80 countries produce cotton, the United States, China, India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan (former Soviet republic) produce about 74 percent of the total world cotton...
AER-738, May 01, 1996
Many trade and environment issues will confront agriculture over the next several years. This report provides an economic framework to better understand these issues and discusses prior empirical inquiries and findings. Four primary issues are addressed: (1) how will environmental policies affect ag...
AER-716, June 01, 1995
Since 1985, the United States has heavily supported agricultural exports with an array of programs. A central issue related to those programs is how best to support farm exports, and farm income, with lower price subsidies under the Uruguay Round Agreement of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Tra...