2005-14 Agricultural Baseline Projections

Each year, USDA makes 10-year economic projections of the food and agriculture sector. The commodity projections are used to forecast farm program costs and to prepare the President’s budget. The projections reflect a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic developments and farm policies, and cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the U.S. farm sector, such as farm income and food prices. One key use of the projections is as a "baseline" from which to analyze the impacts of potential policy changes affecting U.S. agriculture.

Steady domestic and international economic growth and gains in population strengthen demand for food and agricultural products in 2005-14, providing a favorable demand setting for the U.S. agricultural sector. The United States will remain competitive in global agricultural markets although trade competition will continue to be strong. Gains in global consumption, world trade, U.S. agricultural exports, and domestic demand for agricultural products result in rising farm commodity prices and cash receipts, which help to improve the financial condition of the U.S. agricultural sector.

The Economic Research Service plays the lead role in preparing USDA’s Agricultural Baseline Projections report, and the agency produces a range of other outlook products.

Interested in more? Sign up for e-mail notification of timely ERS releases of new information. To receive e-mail notification of future Baseline releases, select Agricultural Market/Trade Projections from the topics list on the e-mail updates page. For other outlook products, choose from the reports listed under Outlook Reports and Yearbooks.

For information on previous USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections, see the ERS Baseline briefing room.