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International long-term projections provided in these tables (Excel format) indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural
crops and meats for selected countries through 2018. These projections
provide foreign country detail supporting the February 2009 USDA
long-term projections, USDA Agricultural
Projections to 2018 (OCE-2009-1).
The 2009 long-term projections show growth in the volume of global
and U.S. agricultural trade during the next 10 years, supported
by demand growth. In particular, growing
economies of developing countries provide a foundation for gains
in demand for agricultural products and increases in trade. Broad-based
economic growth and increasing urbanization lead to diet diversification
in most developing regions, generating increased demand for livestock
products and feeds, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and processed
products. Developing-country import demand is further reinforced
by population growth rates that remain nearly double the growth
rates of developed countries. The projections also reflect a global
increase in demand for biofuels and their feedstocks.
Growth in international trade of animal products becomes increasingly dependent on demand from developing countries.
The projections incorporate effects of trade agreements and domestic policy
reforms in place or signed by November 2008. Compliance with all bilateral
and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade is
assumed. Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries
are assumed to continue to evolve along their current path. In particular,
economic and trade reform underway in many developing countries is assumed
to continue. Similarly, the development and use of agricultural technology
and changes in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving.
USDA's long-term projections are a conditional scenario that assumes
current U.S. farm legislation (2008 Farm Act) will remain in effect
through
2018, there are no shocks to the U.S. or global economies or agricultural
sectors, and weather is normal. Specific assumptions also are made
for the macroeconomy and other countries' policies. The projections
were prepared in October through December 2008, reflecting a composite
of model results and judgment-based analysis.
Data Files
-
Wheat supply and use projections, selected countries
- Rice supply and use projections, selected countries
- Corn supply and use projections, selected countries
- Barley supply and use projections, selected countries
- Sorghum supply and use projections, selected countries
- Soybeans supply and use projections, selected countries
- Soybean oil supply and use projections, selected countries
- Soybean meal supply and use projections, selected countries
- Cotton (metric tons) supply and use projections, selected countries
- Cotton (bales) supply and use projections, selected countries
- Beef supply and use projections, selected countries
- Pork supply and use projections, selected countries
- Poultry supply and use projections, selected countries
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