Documentation
Food availability estimates measure food supplies moving from production through marketing channels for
domestic consumption. This section covers general information and methodological concepts.
This section describes methods and data sources used to develop
the supply and disappearance balance sheets and per capita food
availability tables for each commodity group. The composition
of each commodity
group, the conversion from primary to retail weight, and special
problems related to coverage are discussed.
In Brief
Per capita food availability data compiled by USDA's Economic Research
Service reflect the amount of food available for human consumption
in the United States. This historical series measures the national
food supply of several hundred foods, and it is the only source
of time series data on food availability in the country. ERS's
food availability data represent the food supply, or the disappearance
of food into
the food marketing system, because they are normally calculated
as the residual of a commodity’s total annual
available supply after subtracting measurable uses, such as
farm inputs (feed and seed), exports, ending stocks, and industrial
uses. Hence, the data are often referred to as food disappearance
data. The
annual data
series also includes per capita food availability estimates,
which are useful for studying food consumption trends because
they are a proxy for actual food intake.
History Behind the Data
Although USDA has collected and published information on food production since the 1860s, information
on food consumption did not appear until much later. Interest in food consumption was stimulated by
surpluses in agriculture following World War I. The need for accurate data became apparent in analyzing
and administering production planning programs under the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933.
One objective of these programs was maintaining adequate supplies of food for domestic consumers.
Droughts in 1934 and 1936 and consequent fears of food shortages further aroused interest in analyzing
the national food supply.
The Department issued its first estimates of per capita food availability
in 1941 for use in appraising food requirements and resources
in the war emergency. Since then, estimates of per capita availability
of major foods have been published annually with only a few exceptions.
Historical series on per capita
food availability were developed to analyze long-term trends,
shifts in demand, and nutrients provided by foods. Data were
estimated back to 1909 for many foods.
Constructing the Data
The food availability data measure the use of basic commodities,
such as wheat, beef, and shell eggs, for food products
at the farm level or an early stage of processing. They do not
measure
food
use of highly
processed foods, such as bakery products, frozen dinners, and
soups, in their finished product form. Their ingredients, however,
are included as components of less highly processed foods, such
as sugar,
flour, vegetables for processing, and fresh meat.
The food availability series is based on records of annual commodity flows from production to end uses. This involves the development of supply and disappearance balance sheets for each major commodity from
which human foods are produced. In general, the total annual available supply of each commodity consists of the sum of production, imports, and beginning stocks. These three components are either directly measured or estimated by government agencies using sampling and statistical methods.
For most commodity categories, measurable nonfood uses are farm inputs
(feed and seed), exports, ending stocks, and industrial uses. Human food use is not directly measured or statistically estimated.
Rather, the amount of food available for human consumption is calculated as the difference between
available commodity supplies and nonfood use. In a few cases, supplies for human food use are
measured directly and one of the other use components becomes the residual. This is the case for
wheat, in which flour production is measurable and available from manufacturers' reports on flour
milling and therefore, livestock feed use becomes the residual.
Per capita food availability is calculated by dividing the annual
total food supply during a specific time period by the U.S.
total resident population
plus Armed Forces overseas in a given year.
Yearly population estimates (see
spreadsheet) are from the U.S. Census Bureau.
For commodities not shipped overseas in substantial amounts, only
the resident population is
used as the base. For example, the resident population is used
for fluid milk and cream because these commodities generally
are not shipped from U.S. food supplies for consumption of Armed
Forces overseas. No adjustments are made for changes in the demographic
makeup of the population.
This table shows the supply and disappearance of chicken to illustrate the data framework.
Because food availability data are presented for calendar years,
the supply and disappearance tables are adjusted where possible
from crop years to
calendar years, using data provided by USDA's National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) on January 1 stocks or monthly marketings
by producers. Crops not marketed by the end of the calendar
year are assumed to be marketed during the following year.
That is, estimates
of ending stocks are used as beginning stocks in the next
period. For perishable products like many types of produce,
ending and beginnings stocks are not balance sheet components.
Data Sources
ERS develops the commodity supply and disappearance balance sheets for raw and semi-processed agricultural
commodities—wheat, corn, red meat, and fluid milk, for example—from which food products are made.
These balance sheets use data from a variety of government and private sources. USDA's NASS surveys are a major source of data on farm production, stocks,
and some processed products (including manufactured dairy products). Stocks include those commercially
held and those owned or under loan by USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Stocks normally reported
include those held on farms, in terminal markets, in cold storage, and in other warehouses.
NASS statisticians use the Census of Agriculture and reports from marketing agencies in checking their
survey estimates.
Other sources of information include the U.S. Census Bureau and
USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service. For example, the Census Bureau compiles trade information from
U.S. Customs Service reports to provide foreign trade data and estimates of territorial shipments (primarily
to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands but Alaska and Hawaii were treated as territories through 1959,
when they became States). Finally, in estimating production of processed food products, ERS supplements
NASS production data with information from other sources, such as trade association reports, when they are
available and appropriate.
Level of Measurement
Data on various components of the supply and disappearance balance sheets come from different sources, and
measurements are not always at the same point in the production and marketing system. Before a balance
sheet can be constructed, all components must be converted to a common unit, or primary weight, in which
production is measured. The structure of the marketing system and the availability of data dictate the
point in the marketing system where volume of this production is measured. For some commodities, the
primary measurement level is at the farm gate (e.g., fruit and vegetables), and for others, it is at
the processing or manufacturing plant (e.g., margarine).
Once the primary weight of production is selected, quantities of other components of the balance sheet are
converted to the same level of marketing, using appropriate conversion factors. For example, production
data for meats are based on slaughter plant data, and therefore, carcass weight is the primary weight for
meats. Meat imports, usually measured in retail or processed weights, are converted to carcass-weight
equivalents before aggregation in the balance sheet.
For many food groups, ERS converts food availability figures
from this primary weight to a
secondary-weight or retail-weight equivalent, using conversion
factors that account for further processing, trimming, shrinkage,
or loss in the marketing and distribution system. For example,
ERS
provides estimates of the per capita availability of red meat,
poultry, and fish on a boneless,
trimmed-weight basis in addition to the estimates on a carcass-weight
basis. The boneless weight excludes all bones from red meat, poultry,
and fish and some separable fat. No adjustment is made in
this data series, however, for cooking loss, plate waste, or spoilage.
The boneless weight provides a comparable basis for measuring
the per capita availability of poultry, red meat, and fish. The
difference between the estimates of per capita availability of
meat and poultry on a boneless-weight and
retail-weight basis is due to differences in the proportion
of bone and other inedible components in the retail weight. Retail
cuts of chicken and pork contain a larger proportion of bone than
retail cuts
of beef.
Strengths and Limitations of the Data
Data are collected by USDA directly from producers and distributors
using techniques that vary by commodity. The data are not
collected from individual consumers, and thus provide an independent
basis for examining food consumption changes without the problems
implicit in consumer survey data.
If waste and other losses in the system are relatively constant
over time, these data provide an independent measure of changes
in consumption patterns. Thus, trends in per capita availability
data
can also be used to test the hypotheses that government and general
sources of diet and health information were affecting consumers'
food choices.
The series measures food supplies available for consumption for
all outlets—at
home and away from home. It measures food use of basic commodities
without identifying all end-use products, thereby eliminating
the problems commonly associated with food intake survey data
of decomposing compound foods, such as lasagna or beef stew, back
to commodity ingredients. However, final product forms and consumption
locations are not usually known, and little data exists on supplies
of further processed foods.
In short, relatively good data exists for many food ingredients
(for example, flour, sugar, or eggs) but not for foods as usually
eaten (for example, bread, cookies, or beef hot dogs).
Additionally, the food disappearance data provide good estimates
of the annual per capita availability of kidney beans, for example,
but provide no information on all the different ways that the
beans
were
processed for consumption (canned, for example), where the beans
were marketed (supermarket, hospital, school, restaurant, or
food manufacturer), how they were consumed (in burritos, chili,
or salad), or
how they were prepared (made from scratch or reheated from canned).
The data do not show where the food is consumed because the
data are derived from production statistics rather than from
direct
observations of consumption. The poundage represents food consumed
from all sources, including that purchased at grocery stores
or restaurants and that provided through government programs.
In order to interpret the data correctly, it is also important
for the data user to understand that the data are aggregates
for the United States and that no data are available for use
as a proxy for consumption within
States or
regions or by socioeconomic or demographic categories (i.e., the
socioeconomic characteristics of the consumer who ultimately
ate the food).
Sources of Error
Users of the balance sheets and food availability data need to
be aware of several potential sources of error in the data that
may affect interpretation and use. Because food use is generally
estimated as the residual of the balance sheets, food use data
are subject to the different types of error present in each
of the balance sheet
components. The primary sources of error are incomplete reporting,
inaccurate conversion factors, and inappropriate estimation
techniques.
In compiling the data, ERS makes
substantial efforts to maintain consistency in methods to measure
availability trends and to avoid introducing new sources of
error.
One source of error is the scarcity of information on the components of supply and disappearance. For example,
stocks data are not available for some commodities. Farmer marketings of crops are the only data
available for estimating stocks of some commodities, and it is assumed that stocks are equal to the
proportion of the crop not marketed by the end of the calendar year. Moreover, stocks do not include
inventories of retailers and wholesalers because of lack of data.
Another potential source of error lies with the retail conversion factors. The conversion factors
are rough approximations of weight loss in wholesale and retail markets. Precise information to
estimate and update these factors is lacking, though many changes have taken place in the form in
which foods are sold in retail stores. For example, bagged baby carrots and prewashed bags of lettuce
are sold in many stores.
Perhaps more importantly, the data overstate the amount of food
actually ingested by humans by capturing substantial quantities
of nonedible food portions and food lost to human use through
waste and spoilage
in the home and marketing system. The series also includes unknown
quantities of foods that are used as ingredients in processed
foods that are exported—soft drinks, baked goods, and cereal products.
For example, the food supply series for caloric sweeteners includes
some high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) used
by U.S. beverage manufacturers to make soft drinks for export.
As a result of this and other overcounting, the average calories
provided by the
food supply are well above those needed to meet the
energy needs of the U.S. population. Therefore, ERS also provides
loss-adjusted food
availability data to more closely approximate
actual intake (see below). ERS has plans underway to revise
and validate the conversion factors in these data series.
Usefulness of the Data
Analysts use per capita food availability data extensively for analytical and comparative purposes.
Economists rely on the series in estimating effects of changes in price, income, and information on
food consumption. Market researchers use the data to study changes in consumption and market shares
for food commodities.
The per capita food availability data are most commonly used as
a proxy for actual food intake or consumption. In particular,
they are used to:
- Measure the average level of food consumption in the country,
- Show year-to-year changes in the consumption of major foods,
- Estimate long-term consumption trends, and
- Assess changes in estimated food consumption relative to major nutrition
or policy initiatives.
These data are also used in the construction of two other data series:
-
Nutrient Availability—USDA's
Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion (CNPP) computes
a related statistical series on total nutrients available
for human consumption per capita per day. That series combines
the
detailed ERS estimates of per capita food availability
and CNPP information on the nutrient content of foods,
including inedible waste, such as bone and excess fat in
meat. The resultant time series
provides data on the effects of changing food use and
composition on nutrients available for consumption. This
data series can be found on both the ERS and
the CNPP websites.
-
Loss-Adjusted Food Availability—Because
the per capita food availability data do not account for
all spoilage and waste accumulated through the marketing
system and in the home, the data typically overstate actual
consumption or intake.
Therefore, ERS has also calculated this
set of estimates that
account for food loss prior to ingestion and are based
on servings as defined by the 2005 Dietary
Guidelines for Americans and related
materials. Per capita food availability poundages are
adjusted for
food loss, including spoilage,
inedible components (such as bones in meat and pits
in fruit), plate waste, and
use as pet food. These estimates also include the
loss-adjusted number of calories consumed daily (per
capita).
Estimating Supply and Disappearance of Major Foods
This section describes methods and data sources used for developing
the supply and disappearance balance sheets and per capita food
availability tables for each commodity group. The composition
of each commodity group, the conversion from primary to retail
weight, and special problems related to coverage are also discussed.
Meat
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance tables annually
and quarterly for most red meats: beef, veal, pork, and lamb
and mutton. Meat availability estimates include fresh and processed
meats used and sold
through grocery stores and restaurants.
Meat production data are usually derived from three sources: slaughter under Federal inspection,
other commercial slaughter, and slaughter on farms. Data on number and weight of animals slaughtered
under Federal inspection are obtained through meat inspection programs administered by USDA's Food
Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) but are reported by USDA’s NASS. NASS also collects slaughter statistics on meat production in plants not federally inspected and
on the number and weight of animals slaughtered on farms. Beginning and ending stock data are from NASS.
Import and export data are from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Production data are on a carcass-weight basis in pounds of product
at the slaughter plant. Commercial stocks and most imports and
exports are on a product-weight basis. These items are converted
to carcass
weight for use in the supply and disappearance balance sheets.
ERS also converts meat data to retail-weight and boneless, trimmed-weight
food availability equivalents. The retail-weight measure represents
sales on a retail
cut store equivalent. The boneless-weight measure excludes all
bones but includes separable fat sold on retail cuts of meat.
Conversion factors are used to account for processing, trimming,
shrinkage, or
loss
in the distribution system when converting between carcass-, retail-,
and boneless-weight measures. In most cases, food availability
estimates at the carcass level include pet food because data are not
available
to separate it from human consumption.
The conversion factors for the different types of meat are periodically changed to reflect changing
production and marketing practices, such as the increasing percentage of beef sold boneless
or with more of the fat trimmed. In addition to the gradual trend toward the sale of more
boneless cuts of beef and beef cuts with more fat trimmed off, yield grades have gradually improved, which required less fat to be trimmed. Yield grades predict the yield of trimmed cuts from a
carcass—lower numbers mean higher yields. Just as yield grades improved, the average carcass weights
increased and these factors taken together imply a strong trend to cattle types carrying less fat.
Among other trends, ground beef sales are averaging a slightly lower fat percentage, and the conversion factor used to estimate retail-equivalent weight from the carcass weight of pork
has been gradually increased over time to reflect the reduction in the fat content of hogs.
Per capita red meat availability for a specific year is calculated
by dividing annual total disappearance of a particular type
of meat by the Census Bureau’s estimate of the U.S. total resident population
plus Armed Forces overseas. Just as ERS provides the total meat
disappearance data on a carcass-weight, retail-weight, and boneless,
trimmed-weight
basis, the per capita availability data, calculated as the
residual, are also provided on the same three bases.
Poultry
Per capita food availability estimates for poultry meat products
(broilers, other mature chicken, and turkeys) are published
in a number of places. Broilers are mature, young chickens of
either sex
produced for
meat.
The terms "broilers," "fryers," and "young chickens" are
interchangeable. Estimates of per capita availability are published
monthly in the World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This report
contains the latest monthly revisions to the quarterly supply
and demand estimates, which form the basis for estimating per
capita availability. Historical per capita availability data are reported
on a monthly, quarterly, and yearly basis in the Poultry
Yearbook. Per capita poultry availability estimates are actually
estimates of domestic disappearance (implied consumption or availability)
using secondary data sources rather than primary observations
of individual consumption.
The procedures for constructing the supply and disappearance tables
for poultry meat availability are basically the same for the
three poultry meats (broilers,
other chicken, and turkeys). The first step is to estimate domestic
production for the three poultry meats. The domestic production
estimates come from the monthly Poultry
Slaughter report, published by NASS. This report contains
estimates of the domestic production of the three poultry meats
on a ready-to-cook (RTC) basis. The estimates for the domestic
production are multiplied by a coefficient to get an estimate
for the amount of production condemned after processing. This
estimate is subtracted from overall production to derive net production
on an RTC basis.
The second step is to estimate poultry meat products in cold storage at the beginning of the
period (monthly, quarterly, yearly). Estimates of cold storage holdings come from the NASS Cold Storage report.
The third step is to estimate poultry meat imports. The estimates for poultry meat imports are derived
from U.S. Census Bureau data. The data, originally in a large number of categories, are aggregated
into estimates for broilers, mature chicken, and turkey imports.
The estimates of net production, beginning stocks, and imports
are added together to arrive at the total supply of poultry products
available for consumption. Estimates of poultry products exported
and ending stocks
in cold storage are then subtracted
from the total supply figure to arrive at an estimate of implied
domestic availability. This estimate is then divided by an estimate
of the total resident population of the United States, plus Armed
Forces overseas, to derive per capita availability on a carcass-weight
basis. This estimate of availability of broilers and mature chickens
is a proxy for consumption of whole birds. Since a large
percentage of availability is of chicken parts, these estimates
are multiplied by a coefficient to arrive at a per capita availability
estimate on a retail-weight basis. With a larger percentage of
its availability done on a whole bird basis, turkey availability
has no conversion
factor between RTC and retail weight.
Eggs
ERS compiles supply and disappearance tables for eggs using data mostly from NASS. To exclude eggs for hatching,
ERS estimates numbers of hatching eggs from NASS data on numbers of chicks hatched and a hatch percentage
calculated from weekly eggs set and chicks hatched. Data on stocks, exports, and imports of dried, liquid,
and frozen eggs are reported by product weight, with weights converted to shell-egg equivalent for use in
the supply and disappearance balance sheet. The balance sheet is in dozens of shell-egg equivalents, but data are
also available in cases (30 dozen per case) and pounds of eggs (1.57 pounds per dozen).
Egg availability includes fresh and processed uses by manufacturers
and institutional outlets such as hospitals, hotels, and restaurants.
Availability also
includes use as a culture medium because data
are not available to separate this use from the total estimate
for human consumption.
Fishery Products
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) of the U.S. Department
of Commerce compiles data on supply and disappearance of fishery
products. The total U.S. supply of imports and landings is
converted to edible weight, and decreases in supply, such as
exports, are subtracted. The remaining total is divided by the
U.S. resident population
plus Armed Forces overseas to estimate per capita availability.
Data are derived primarily from secondary
sources and are subject to incomplete reporting; changes in source
data or invalid model assumptions may each have a significant
effect on the resulting calculation. NMFS publishes separate
balance sheets
on an edible-weight basis for fresh and frozen, canned, and cured
fish, as well as for total fish and shellfish. The series Fisheries
of the United States on the
NMFS website contains
related supply and disappearance data.
Production data for fresh or frozen fish and shellfish from NMFS surveys relate only to commercial
landings and production data on major cultured species. Commercial processors prepare regular reports
on canned and cured seafood. Alaskan and Hawaiian production of fresh and frozen fishery products have
been included since 1960, consistent with reports of most other commodities. Canned production, however,
includes production from Alaska in all years, Hawaii since 1952, Puerto Rico since 1953, and American
Samoa since 1954. Cured fishery products from Alaska have been included since 1955 and from Hawaii
since 1960. Earlier, U.S. imports and exports of canned products included shipments to and from these
places. The production data for cultured catfish have been included since 1973, trout since 1991,
and salmon, tilapia, striped bass, and shrimp since 1996.
The Census Bureau provides foreign trade data on fishery products. Imports of fresh, frozen, and cured fishery
products are adjusted to eliminate duplication, resulting from domestic production of canned and cured
fish products from imported fish. Exports of fishery products include both domestic and re-exported products.
Data for stocks of fresh and frozen fish and shellfish held in commercial cold storage facilities have
been used since 1917. Data for stocks of canned fish were less complete and use was discontinued in 1999.
Boneless Red Meat, Poultry, and Fish
Since 1986, ERS has developed and published a series on availability
of meat, poultry, and fish on a boneless-weight basis. These
boneless-weight
estimates are mainly used to make quantity comparisons
of the types of meat consumed. For example, to serve as a proxy
for consumption and estimate whether more turkey is consumed
than fish, analysts compare quantities based on boneless weight
rather
than
on retail
weight.
Data on fish are available only on a boneless-weight
basis.
Factors for calculating boneless and trimmed weight were derived
from USDA data on the quantity of boneless meat obtained from
a carcass. These factors are based on values from Weights,
Measures, and Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities
and Their Products and current ERS estimates. The conversion
factors for the different kinds of meat can be found by looking
at the supply and disappearance spreadsheets for particular meats
(see the far right-hand column of Beef:
Supply and Disappearance, for example). The boneless-weight
measure for red meat excludes all bones but includes separable
fat sold on retail cuts of meat. Boneless-weight figures for
poultry are derived from ready-to-cook figures, using USDA food
composition
data.
Dairy Products
Milk's various components are transformed into a tremendous
variety of dairy products, some ancient, such as butter, cheese,
and yogurt, and some more modern, such as condensed milk and
dry milks. Dairy products are consumed directly, but are also
used as ingredients in a vast number of foods. Analyzing the
supply-demand conditions for farm milk requires some way of adding
dairy products
together.
Aggregation method
Confusion can be avoided only if products are aggregated on a common basis, provided by choosing a particular component (or a cluster of related components) of milk and adding products based on the level of that component in the product. Conceptually, any component would work, but milkfat, skim solids or protein, and calcium have been the most common bases. Milkfat traditionally was the most used because it once was the most valuable component and the least likely to be wasted or fed to animals.
Most people relate better to a quantity of milk than to a quantity of a component, which led to the concept of milk equivalent. Most accurately, the milk-equivalent, milkfat basis of a product is the farm milk required to provide the milkfat in that product. The simplest way of obtaining a factor to convert product weight into milk equivalent is to divide the fat percentage of the product by the fat percentage of farm milk. For example, a fat content of 27.5 percent in Swiss cheese and 3.67 percent in farm milk generates a factor of 7.49. In practice, many of the factors used were derived by more intricate, but conceptually close, procedures.
No single aggregation of products is likely to be satisfactory,
at least in the short run. Changes in milkfat markets vary too
much from changes in skim solids markets. For this reason, total
dairy product availability is best understood if simultaneously
measured by a milkfat basis and skim solids basis.
Avoiding double counting
For dairy products, the total is generally less than the sum
of the parts. Dairy products commonly are used as ingredients
in the production of other dairy products. For example, ice cream
might contain fresh milk and cream, condensed and dry milk, buttermilk,
whey, and butter. Unless extraordinary measures are taken to
adjust for duplication, adding availability of individual dairy
products into total dairy availability double-counts. An easier
and more
robust way to address the problem is to calculate aggregate
availability in the same way individual product availability
is calculated (see All dairy
products: Per capita availability). Stocks, trade, and the
other factors needed for the calculation are first aggregated
into totals that
are free of duplication (because the components can only be in
one product at a time), and then total availability is calculated.
USDA's NASS estimates milk production and stocks; the Census
Bureau reports imports, exports, and shipments to the U.S. territories.
Storable dairy products
Availability of most storable manufactured dairy products is
estimated by relatively simple food disappearance calculations
(see commodity
supply and disappearance tables for American
cheese, other
cheese, total
cheese, condensed
and evaporated whole milk, nonfat
dry milk, and butter).
Disappearance estimates generally involve fewer interpretation
problems for these products than for many foods. Once manufactured,
most dairy products undergo relatively little further processing.
Combined with their traditionally high cost, this straightforward
marketing flow leads to relatively minor wastage between manufacturing
and the purchase by final user. For example, considerable cheese
is trimmed off when rectangular blocks are cut into specialty
shapes such as "longhorns," but this trim is then
used in processed cheese products.
Perishable manufactured products
Availability of perishable manufactured products such as ice
cream or cottage cheese is set equal to production. Although
there
is
no pragmatic
alternative, two problems exist with this approach. First, stocks
and trade may not be insignificant, particularly for ice cream.
On an annual basis, the error probably is fairly small but could
be sizable for shorter periods. Second, spoilage occurs in the
distribution channels. At one time, waste was considerable.
However, longer shelf life, better packaging, and improved refrigeration
have lessened the problem considerably.
Sales of fluid milk, cream, and specialty products
Data for sales of fluid milk, cream, and specialty products
are compiled from Federal and State regulatory sources and estimates
of the very minor amounts of unregulated milk (see Fluid
milk and cream: Per capita availability). For beverage milks,
the data represent the quantities sold by fluid processors net
of
any
returns from retailers. At one time, returns were quite significant,
but improved raw milk quality, better pasteurization, and improved
distribution have reduced them substantially. Beginning in 2000,
availability data for fluid creams and specialty fluid items
changed from a net sales basis to a production basis.
 An Amber Waves data feature takes a look at Trends in U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Dairy Products, 1909 to 2001.
Also see the Amber Waves finding Cheese Consumption Continues to Rise, and "Behind the Data" on Measuring America's Cheese Consumption.
Added Fats and Oils
ERS constructs supply and disappearance tables for oilseeds, such as soybeans, cottonseed, sunflower seed,
canola seed, and peanuts, and for the primary oil and meal products derived from oilseeds and animal
sources. Data for oil crops products are kept on an October-September crop-year basis. These data are
published in the Oil Crops Yearbook. Data for stocks and crush of oilseeds and the supply and disappearance of
oilseed products are derived from Current Industrial Reports of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
ERS also compiles supply and disappearance data for the major
manufactured fats and oils products including margarine, edible
tallow, lard, shortening, and salad and cooking oils. Food use
data include availability
of fats and oils from all sources, whether purchased by consumers
or used by manufacturers or restaurants
to produce bakery or other food products. Food disappearance
figures for lard and tallow reflect only direct use by consumers,
restaurants, institutions, or manufacturers. Indirect use of
lard and tallow
in margarine and shortening is accounted for in the disappearance
figures for margarine and shortening. This procedure avoids
double counting when estimating total food fats and oils disappearance.
The U.S. Department of Commerce also provides information on use of primary fats and oils in related
products. ERS summarizes monthly data according to primary oil products. For example, soybean oil is
distributed among various processed products such as margarine and shortening. The data are also
presented by final product. Thus, the amount of each primary vegetable oil and animal fat used in the
production of margarine is estimated. The resulting data are published in the Oil Crops Yearbook. Data on the distribution of primary oils in processed products are used by analysts
in studying the demand for particular oil crops. The summary by final product is often used in estimating
changes in the fatty acid content of the fats and oils products consumed in the United States.
Disappearance may not be a reliable indicator of change in consumption
of fats and oils. Evidence suggests that the waste (or nonfood
use) portion of fats and oils disappearance has increased during
the past
three decades with the growth in away-from-home eating places,
especially fast food places. Food service establishments that
deep-fry foods can generate significant amounts of waste grease,
referred to as
"restaurant grease." A study by SRI, International indicated that the
quantity of used frying fat that restaurants disposed of
and renderers processed in 1987 for use in animal feeds, pet
foods, industrial operations, and for export amounted to about
6 pounds per capita, or about 10 percent of the total disappearance
of food fats and oils in that year.
Peanuts
Data on the supply and disappearance of peanuts come from NASS reports and from trade data compiled by the
Census Bureau. Annual production data are reported in the NASS publication Crop Production. The
total supply for each peanut marketing year (August to July) is the sum of production, imports of
shelled and in-shell peanuts, and the beginning stocks for that year as reported in the NASS publication
Peanut Stocks and Processing.
Peanut availability (use) data are broken out into exports, seed
and residual use, peanuts crushed for vegetable oil and protein
meal, and the largest category—food use or disappearance. The food
use and crush data are reported in the NASS publication Peanut
Stocks and Processing, and trade data are from the Census Bureau.
Seed use is an estimate based on an assumed seeding rate per planted
acre. The peanut domestic food use calculation is primarily based
on the NASS Peanut
Stocks and Processing manufacturers survey data on
peanuts used to make peanut candy, snack peanuts, peanut butter,
other products, plus the apparent disappearance of "roasting stock" peanuts,
with some adjustments for trade. Summary data on peanut supply
and disappearance, on an in-shell ("farmer stock") basis, are reported
by ERS in the monthly Oil
Crops Outlook. To convert in-shell data to a shelled basis, a conversion
factor of 0.75 is used.
Vegetables and Melons
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance statistics
for a wide variety of commercially produced fresh vegetables
and melons. Although the supply and disappearance tables are
essential for industry
analysis, their primary purpose is to estimate food disappearance,
both in total and on a per capita
basis. Largely compiled on a calendar-year basis, the per capita
disappearance, or what we call food availability here, statistics
generated from these tables are published in the monthly Vegetables
and Melons Outlook. Many of the supply and disappearance tables
are published annually in the Vegetables
and Melons Yearbook.
Supply
and disappearance table coverage for vegetables and melons
(except potatoes)
|
Fresh vegetables and melons: |
Artichokes
Asparagus
Snap beans
Broccoli
Brussels sprouts*
Cabbage
Carrots
Cauliflower |
Celery
Sweet corn
Collards*
Cucumbers
Eggplant
Endive/escarole*
Garlic
Kale* |
Iceberg lettuce
Romaine/leaf lettuce
Green lima beans*
Mustard greens*
Okra*
Onions
Bell peppers
Radishes* |
Spinach
Squash
Tomatoes
Turnip greens*
Pumpkins*
Cantaloupe
Honeydew
Watermelon |
| |
Vegetables for freezing: |
Asparagus
Broccoli
Carrots |
Cauliflower
Sweet corn
Green peas |
Green lima beans*
Snap beans
Spinach |
Miscellaneous* |
| |
|
|
|
Vegetables for canning: |
Asparagus*
Beets*
Snap beans*
Carrots* |
Green lima beans*
Cabbage for kraut*
Pickling cucumbers
Green peas* |
Sweet corn*
Spinach*
Chile peppers*
Tomatoes |
Miscellaneous* |
| |
|
|
|
Other vegetables: |
Dry edible beans**
Dry peas and lentils* |
Mushrooms, fresh
Mushrooms for processing* |
Onions for dehydration
|
|
Note: Data on potatoes and sweet potatoes are discussed separately.
* Only per capita disappearance or availability data are published for these
items; detailed supply and disappearance tables are not published.
**Dry edible beans consist of 14 bean class supply and disappearance tables aggregated to an all-bean total.
|
In general, commodity disappearance results from adjusting total
production or use for trade (exports less imports), stocks (inventories),
and other uses where applicable (seed, feed, shrink,
and storage losses). Disappearance data divided by the total
annual U.S. population (including Armed Forces overseas) yields
an estimate of per capita availability. Per capita availability
data for fresh vegetables are presented on a farm-weight and
retail-weight
basis.
The primary data sources used in determining vegetable and melon supply and disappearance include NASS (e.g.,
production, frozen stocks, pickling cucumber stocks, census acreage, and onion shrinkage, the Census
Bureau (e.g., import volume, export volume, and population estimates), and industry sources (e.g.,
processed tomato stocks, frozen pack, and onion stocks). The data cover U.S.-produced vegetables and
melons for fresh market, freezing, canning, and dehydrating (onions).
Fresh vegetables
Supply and disappearance estimates for fresh market vegetables
can be divided into three categories:
-
Estimates based on NASS national production estimates
-
Estimates based primarily on State-supplied production estimates
(e.g., radishes, eggplant, green lima beans, endive/escarole, and
brussels sprouts)
-
Estimates based largely on Census Bureau acreage with interpolated
intercensal years (e.g., okra, collards, kale, mustard greens, and
turnip greens)
Annual fresh-market supply is largely determined by NASS
production estimates (except for crops where production
is estimated by ERS using alternative
sources) plus import volume reported by the
Census Bureau. NASS fresh vegetable production estimates
cover the majority of harvested quantities destined for
sale in commercial markets.
These data exclude produce from home gardens and output from
States that largely serve only local markets for limited
time periods. Prior to the 1990s, imports largely entered the market
during the winter and early spring when domestic supplies
were low. Today,
although the majority of volume still enters during contra-seasonal
periods, imports of fresh vegetables, such as tomatoes and
asparagus, are increasingly seen outside their traditional
winter-early spring
market window. Onions are the only fresh vegetable for which
stocks data exist (supplied by industry), although NASS frozen
stocks are included in the brussels sprouts estimate since
the supply and disappearance
table for this dual use (fresh and processing) vegetable covers
all uses.
Calculating per capita domestic disappearance or availability
for most fresh-market vegetables is straightforward. U.S. imports
are
added to domestic
production
to arrive at total supply. Aside from onions and brussels
sprouts (frozen stocks), stocks do not enter into the supply and
disappearance equation for fresh vegetables. U.S. export volume
is subtracted from total supply to yield net domestic use. Domestic
use is then
divided by the July 1 estimate of U.S. population (including Armed
Forces overseas) to arrive at the per capita proxy for consumption.
Vegetables for freezing
The annual supply of vegetables destined for frozen products (excluding
potatoes) is largely determined by NASS production estimates.
Production estimates for carrots and miscellaneous vegetables
for freezing are based on frozen pack statistics published by
the American Frozen Food Institute (AFFI). Import volume and
beginning stocks
are
added to production estimates to complete the annual supply
estimate. Domestic use is then calculated by subtracting export
volume
and ending
stocks from total
supply. The miscellaneous category consists of items such as
collards, kale, mustard greens, okra, blackeye peas, pumpkin,
rhubarb, summer squash, turnip greens, turnips, and other vegetables.
Since the
supply and disappearance tables for vegetables for freezing are
presented on a fresh-weight basis, all frozen
product-weight data for imports, exports, pack, and stocks are
converted to a fresh-weight basis using
conversion factors published in Weights,
Measures, and Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities and Their Products.
Vegetables for canning
Similar to data on vegetables for freezing, the annual supply
of vegetables destined for canned products (excluding potatoes)
is largely determined by NASS production estimates. Production
estimates for carrots
are
estimated as the NASS production estimate of carrots for processing
less the estimate of AFFI frozen pack (on a fresh-weight basis).
There is currently no estimate of miscellaneous vegetables for
canning but domestic use is estimated simply as net imports
(import volume less export volume). Because of program cutbacks,
after 2001,
NASS ceased
production estimates for beets and cabbage for kraut, both of
which are now estimated by ERS using available State data and
Census Bureau acreage data. Canning supply and disappearance
are calculated in the same manner as for freezing vegetables.
Imports
and beginning
stocks are added to production to arrive at total supply, with
exports and ending stocks subtracted from supply to yield domestic
disappearance.
A challenge to the canning vegetable supply and disappearance
estimates program occurred when the National Food Processors
Association began to phase out reporting of canned vegetable
stocks in the 1980s
(all estimates were dropped after 1989). Because of processor
consolidation, these estimates were dropped to lessen the potential
for disclosure of individual firms' operations. Inventory movements
provide year-to-year stability in total disappearance and per
capita availability estimates. When stocks are dropped out of
the supply and disappearance estimate, substantial year-to-year
variation in the per capita use
series results as disappearance estimates then swing with production
adjustments (which move based on stock levels and market prices).
With the goal of maintaining integrity in the year-to-year disappearance series, ERS has been estimating
ending stocks for the major canning vegetables based largely on historical relationships between stocks
and production. Because of the increasing likelihood of errors in these estimations, ERS will soon be forced to discontinue this procedure and drop beginning and
ending stocks from per capita estimates of canning vegetables, such as sweet corn, snap beans, and green
peas.
Fortunately, in 1992 the California League of Food Processors, in cooperation with tomato processors,
began to report quarterly stocks of processing tomatoes held in California warehouses. This data has
been essential in determining national supply and disappearance of processing tomatoes—a crop that accounts for
about 70 percent of all vegetables for canning.
Onions for dehydration
ERS compiles calendar-year estimates of supply and disappearance
of onions used for dehydration. These data became a bit more
precise in 1992 when NASS began to explicitly break out California
onion production for processing in their onion estimates. Prior
to that, ERS had to rely on industry estimates and rules of thumb
to determine the share of California's summer storage
crop that was dedicated to processing (virtually all onion dehydrating
takes place in California). The weak link in this data, as with
data for many of the canned vegetables, is the lack of finished
stocks. Stock estimates contained in the supply and disappearance
table represent raw onions to be processed.
The supply and disappearance table is similar to that for fresh
onions in that total supply is the sum of NASS production, Census
Bureau import volume, and an estimate for beginning dry bulb
onion stocks. Domestic disappearance equals total supply less
the sum of dehydrated onion export volume, ending dry bulb onion
stocks, and shrink and loss of raw onions for processing (estimated
as 50 percent of the shrink in California's summer onion crop).
Dry edible beans
With over 1.3 million acres, dry edible beans cover more U.S. area than any other single vegetable or
melon crop. In truth, dry beans is a catchall category containing dozens of dry bean classes
including pinto, navy, Great Northern, light-red kidney, and black beans. Virtually all of these
classes constitute separate markets that operate independently of each other. As a result, in the past
few years, ERS began to complete separate supply and disappearance tables for each of the 14 classes for which NASS
estimates production. Total supply is calculated as NASS production plus import volume and estimated
beginning stocks.
ERS estimates stocks based on the share of production that is marketed the following calendar year.
Thus, ending stocks on December 31, 2004, for example, would be equal to production in 2004 less the
share of the crop marketed during September-December—the first 4 months of the 2004/05 crop year, which
runs from September-August). This estimation method is imprecise because dry beans can be held over more
than one season, and in years of large crops, analysts must sometimes make ad hoc adjustments.
NASS publishes monthly marketing percentages by State for all dry beans at the close of each crop year.
ERS estimates the shares that apply to each bean class based on the State in which the majority of the
crop is produced. The exception is for beans produced primarily in California (e.g., baby limas, large
limas, and blackeye peas), where stocks are reported by industry.
Net domestic use is calculated by subtracting export volume, seed
use (area planted in the following year times an estimate of
seed use per acre), and ending stocks (on December 31) from
total supply. As is done for most other vegetables, net domestic
use is then
divided by the July 1 estimate of the U.S. population (including
Armed
Forces overseas) to arrive at the per capita food availability
estimates, a proxy for consumption.
Mushrooms
ERS compiles crop-year (July 1-June 30) supply and disappearance
data for fresh-market and processing mushrooms. Calculation
of the fresh-market data follows the same procedure used for
most fresh-market vegetables
with the exception of the population figure used to calculate
per capita use or availability. A January 1 population
figure is used for mushrooms, as that date falls in the middle
of the mushroom crop year. For processing mushrooms (which are
largely for canning), the procedure used to compile data is
the same as for
fresh. There are no stock data for processing mushrooms, which
leaves production and net trade as the
determinants of net domestic use. The annual NASS report, Mushrooms,
provides production for both agaricus-types (the majority of mushroom
output) and specialty mushrooms, such as Shiitake and Crimini.
Import and export volume of processed mushrooms from the Census
Bureau is converted to a fresh-weight basis using a factor of
1.538 for canned, 1.5 for frozen, and 10.0 for dried/dehydrated
mushrooms.
Limitations of vegetable data
The first limitation in the vegetable supply and disappearance
series is that disappearance or use cannot be termed "vegetable
consumption" per se. Rather, it represents the apparent
net use of vegetables produced on the farm. Although the series
does not directly measure what people eat, it still provides
a useful measure of consumption patterns
and trends. Also, in the farm-weight series,
ERS does not adjust for factors such as loss during transportation
from the shipping point, shrinkage during retailing (e.g., spoilage,
trimming), and
products thrown out prior to being consumed.
Second, ERS does not capture the entire universe of vegetables produced
and/or consumed by Americans. Despite all the items now included in the vegetables and melons supply and disappearance series, coverage is not complete. Many commodities are left out due to a lack of information
on which to base a solid estimate. Some of these include fresh green peas; various Asian vegetables,
such as bok choy, turnips, and rutabagas; fresh herbs, such as dill and parsley; fresh beets; parsnips;
leeks; scallions (green onions); rhubarb, domestically-produced greenhouse vegetables; and other
specialty and dehydrated vegetables. For canned and frozen vegetables, ERS does maintain a miscellaneous
supply and disappearance table to capture the pack of miscellaneous frozen vegetables and account for net imports
of canned and frozen vegetables not specifically estimated.
Third, the information used to make the per capita estimates
is not always complete. U.S. trade statistics have not consistently
included commodity-level detail over time. For example, data
for fresh sweet corn
exports were not reported by the Census Bureau until 1978.
Prior to 1978, sweet corn was included in a miscellaneous vegetable
export category. Thus, the supply and disappearance table used
to calculate per capita fresh sweet corn use or availability
contains no data for exports prior to
1978. Domestic use may be overstated prior to 1978 by the
unknown amount exported.
Finally, in some cases, principal data crucial to understanding
supply and disappearance must be estimated by ERS because of
discontinued reporting by primary agencies. For example, in
1989, the industry discontinued
reporting pack and stocks of most canned vegetables. Although
the tomato processing industry soon resumed the reporting of
raw-equivalent stocks, changes in canned stocks have been estimated
by ERS
for sweet
corn, green beans, and green peas based on past relationships
with production. These relationships are fast becoming outdated,
which will soon force ERS to eliminate stock changes in the
supply and disappearance
of these canned vegetables. This will likely result in wider
and more unrealistic year-to-year variation in disappearance
estimates as use directly follows changes in
production.
Filling in missing data was also crucial in the 1980s. Following the 1981 season, budget cuts
forced NASS to cease reporting national production
estimates for a number of vegetables and melons. National production data were not reinstated for
these items until 1992, with the exception of asparagus and cucumbers for pickles, which were both
reinstated in 1984.
Thus, in order to continue monitoring as much of the vegetable sector as possible, ERS generated
estimates of national production for those commodities dropped from the NASS program in 1982. These
estimates were based on data from those State Departments of Agriculture (working in cooperation with
the NASS State office) that continued to collect production information for their State. Fortunately,
in many cases, the States that continued to maintain their full vegetable data series in the 1980s
accounted for more than half of the U.S. total in 1981. As a result, the transition back to NASS-supplied
U.S. production estimates in 1992 was smooth, requiring few statistical adjustments.
The Amber Waves feature, "Behind the Data," takes a look at Estimating Per Capita Domestic Use of Head Lettuce.
Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes
Supply and disappearance data are available for fresh and processed
potatoes and for all sweet potatoes. NASS provides survey data
on production and frozen stocks, and the Census Bureau provides
the trade data.
ERS estimates disappearance of potatoes and sweet potatoes based
entirely on production and net trade because data on stocks
are not available, except for frozen potatoes. Utilized production
data are
available since 1959 for potatoes only.
ERS has published potato supply and disappearance data starting
in 1960, including the farm-weight equivalent of fresh, frozen,
canned, chip, and dehydrated
potatoes. ERS estimates domestic use of each of these products
by adding corresponding imports to,
and subtracting exports from, production data. Only frozen potatoes
add the difference between beginning and ending stocks to production
in annual estimates.
Disappearance estimates for sweet potatoes are available on a farm-weight basis.
Domestic use or availability is calculated from production after
adding imports and subtracting exports, as well as subtracting
estimates of seed and feed use, and shrinkage and loss estimates.
Stocks of canned sweet potatoes are directly accounted for through
1989, after which industry discontinued reporting canned vegetable
stocks because of canner consolidation (too few firms). Seed
use is estimated by ERS as acres planted (for the coming year)
multiplied by an average seeding rate per acre. After use data
were discontinued in 1984, the estimate of feed use, shrinkage,
and loss has been
assumed to be 5 percent of production. Per capita use of both
potatoes
and sweet potatoes is calculated as total domestic disappearance
or availability divided by total U.S. population (including Armed
Forces overseas) on July 1 as reported by the Census Bureau.
Fruit and Tree Nuts
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance tables for fresh and processed fruit, including
use as canned, dried, juice, and frozen. Balance sheets are also available for varieties of tree nuts.
Data on production and processing use of fruit and tree nuts are published by NASS. Fruit growing wild
and in noncommercial areas are not estimated, except for wild (lowbush) blueberries grown in managed
lowbush fields in Maine. Data on the amount of packed produce comes from the American Frozen Food
Institute and the Florida Citrus Processors Association where stocks of processed citrus fruit juices
are also being sourced. The balance sheets also use NASS data on stocks of fresh and frozen fruit.
Stocks of processed noncitrus fruit juices are not available from any source. Data on shipments for
fresh kiwifruit, raisins, and prune juice as well as stocks of tree nuts come from various commodity
trade groups. Fruit and tree nut trade data come mostly from the Census Bureau, except for data on exports of almonds (from the Almond Marketing Board),
fresh cranberries (from the Cranberry Marketing Committee), and dried prunes (from the Prune Marketing
Committee).
Industry tabulation and publication of canned fruit inventories
ceased in 1988. Due to the absence of canned fruit inventory
data, estimates of the availability of canned fruit for consumption
tend to follow an alternating pattern, increasing one year
and decreasing
the next. Unless reporting of this data is reinstated, ERS
will have difficulty in making quantity comparisons between
categories
of processed products. Certain other valuable fruit data have
also become unavailable for use in the balance sheets. The
Pineapple Growers Association of Hawaii stopped furnishing
information on canned pineapples
and juice in August 1982. In 2003/04, the Prune Marketing Committee
stopped reporting prune juice and concentrate shipments separately.
Now prune juice shipments are reported under
"byproduct for manufacturing," which includes shipments of other
byproducts such as baby food. Historically, prune juice shipments
made up a major share of all the byproducts for
manufacturing, more or less dictating its trend; therefore, year-to-year
changes in this larger category are being used to estimate current
prune juice shipments.
For some fruit, quantities used in processing products such as jam, jelly, vinegar, wine, and juice are
very minute and are therefore not listed separately when reporting processing production. For apples, sweet and tart cherries, and peaches, production use to make these minor products is listed
as "other" processing uses, whereas for grapes, it is listed under production used for juice.
Production of these minor items is excluded from the supply and disappearance table, except for apples (which
has an "other" supply and disappearance table) and grapes (which is incorporated in the grape juice supply and disappearance). With grapes being the only fruit having a significant proportion of production going into the
manufacturing of wine, grapes for wine form a separate processing category apart from the major
categories—canned, dried, juice, and frozen.
Per capita availability data are presented on a farm-weight basis
for fresh fruit. ERS uses various conversion factors to present
availability
of canned, dried, juice, frozen, wine, and "other"
processed fruit on both a product-weight equivalent
and a farm-weight basis.
These conversion factors are listed as footnotes in the supply
and disappearance tables for the various processed fruit products.
The availability of tree nuts for domestic consumption are all
presented on a shelled basis.
Grains
Data on supply and disappearance of grains are organized by primary
use. ERS maintains balance sheets for the major food grains
(wheat and rice) and the major feed grains (corn, barley, oats,
and sorghum). ERS also maintains balance sheets for rye through
USDA's World Board. Food availability data are presented as
grain equivalents. NASS, the Census Bureau, and other government
agencies
provide
the data used to construct the food grain supply and disappearance
tables.
Wheat
ERS maintains supply and disappearance data for five major classes of wheat: hard red winter, soft red winter,
hard red spring, white, and durum. These data are published in the Wheat Outlook and Wheat Yearbook reports
and are compiled on a marketing-year basis (June-May). Data on production and stocks are collected by
NASS. Food use of wheat is derived from Census Bureau data on production of wheat flour; the flour data
are adjusted for imports and exports of wheat products from Census Bureau data. For more detail, see Estimating wheat supply and disappearance in the Wheat briefing room.
Rice
Data on U.S. rice production and stocks by State and class are reported by NASS. Trade data are
reported by the Census Bureau. Estimates of domestic rice use are derived from several sources.
First, seed use for next year’s crop is equal to expected plantings times the seeding rate. Seed use
is reported as a separate use category in the rice balance sheet. The rest of domestic use is reported
as a single term—Food, Industrial, and Residual (FI&R).
The FI&R term is a balancer in the rice supply and disappearance,
equating total supply with total demand for all market years
in which a survey-based estimate of actual ending stocks has
been released by NASS. As such, for historic market years the
FI&R term is calculated to equate total supply (beginning
stocks, imports, and production) with total use (domestic disappearance,
exports, and ending stocks), with all components on a rough-equivalent
basis. Domestic disappearance equals the FI&R term plus seed
use. Seed use is calculated by multiplying the next year's
planted area by the per acre average seeding rate.
Prior to the release of the ending stocks estimate by NASS in
late August (after the completion of the August 1 to July 31
market year), the FI&R term is a forecast derived from a
statistical model. The forecasted FIR&R term is based on
historic FI&R estimates and expectations regarding U.S. population
growth and ethnic composition, changes in per capita rice consumption,
price movements, and income levels.
USDA does not report separate estimates for the three components
of the FI&R term. Only the aggregate FI&R term is an
official USDA estimate. However, USDA does develop internal estimates
for all 3 FI&R components—food
use, industrial use, and the residual—to assist in forecasting
the FI&R term prior to the release of the ending stocks data
by NASS in late August. After the release of the ending stocks
estimate, the FI&R
term becomes the "balancer" in the supply and disappearance
table.
Data from two non-USDA sources are used to support internal
USDA food and industrial use estimates and to justify any revisions.
First, monthly shipments of rice for use in manufacturing beer—the
bulk of industrial use—are reported by the U.S.
Treasury Department's Alcohol and Tobacco Tax Trade Bureau.
There is a substantial time lag between the actual shipment
of the rice to U.S. brewers and the release of this data.
Second, data on U.S. milled rice shipments for domestic food uses (including direct food use, process foods, and pet food) are available from an annual survey of U.S. rice mills and repackagers conducted by the Food Research Associates. The survey is funded by the USA Rice Federation and reported in their annual U.S. Rice Distribution Patterns Report. Data from the annual milled rice distribution survey are used to support historic USDA internal food use estimates and to justify any revisions.
Domestic food use estimates reported in the survey typically
do not match USDA's internal food use estimates. Lack of survey
participation by some U.S. rice mills and non-inclusion of some
minor food uses in the survey are major factors behind the difference
in estimates. There is a substantial time lag between the end
of a market year on July 31 and the release of the milled rice
survey data. The survey data are not used in forecasting the
FI&R term.
The final component of the FI&R term is the residual, which—for
market years with a NASS reported ending stocks estimate—is calculated
so that when it is added to internal USDA food and industrial
use estimates (to yield the FI&R term), total supply will equal total use. The residual includes unreported losses in handling, processing, and transporting, as well as any statistical errors in any component of supply and disappearance. Readers can find annual FI&R estimates and further information on domestic rice use in the monthly Rice
Outlook report and in the Rice Yearbook.
Other grains
Use of food grains for feed and alcohol production is estimated as the residual component of the balance
sheet and is thus subject to errors in other balance sheet components. ERS compiles supply and disappearance balance sheet tables quarterly for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Livestock feed and residual
accounts for about 69 percent of total domestic use of these four feed grains and for 56 percent of
total use. NASS publishes estimates of feed grain production in the monthly Crop Production reports.
Stock estimates are included in its quarterly stock reports.
Feed grains are processed into a number of food and nonfood products. Corn, for example, is processed
into many food and nonfood products, often from the same manufacturing process. Some products, like
cornstarch, are in turn used by both food and nonfood industries in further manufacturing. ERS estimates
food and industrial use from census data and other sources. The nonfood
use of feed grains includes quantities for processing into beverage and industrial alcohols, industrial
starches, and for seed and feed. About 83 percent of the starch production is purchased for industrial
uses.
Use of oats and barley for food is derived from Census Bureau reports on production of final products.
Industry estimates augment these reports. Feed grains and rice used for alcoholic beverages were
estimated from U.S. Department of Treasury data.
Per capita disappearance data for grain products are reported for several levels in the manufacturing
process. In the balance sheets, food use is presented on a grain-equivalent basis. These are inexact
estimates of food consumption. Wheat flour and rice data are measured at the point of milling and
include food use in all forms, whether purchased directly or consumed as bread, cereal, or other
processed products.
Data on production of some processed grain products are available
from the Census of Manufacturers. To derive estimates of the
food available for consumption, ERS adjusts the production figures
to account for imports and
exports. Products estimated in this manner include corn flour
and meal, and hominy. The data are interpolated between 5-year
census intervals. In the ERS per capita availability data,
grain products include wheat flour, rye flour, rice, barley
products, and corn
products.
Sugar and Sweeteners
Since 1941, ERS has estimated annual U.S. total and per capita
availability of caloric sweeteners. The data series comprises
dry-weight availability estimates of refined cane and beet sugar,
corn sweeteners,
honey, and edible syrups.
The estimates are based on deliveries of sweeteners by processors, refiners, and importers to U.S. food
and beverage manufacturers, institutional users, wholesalers, and retailers. Food and beverage
manufacturers use the sweeteners in processed products ranging from candy and soft drinks, catsup,
yogurt, peanut butter, and boxed rice mixes. Food wholesalers and retailers distribute refined sugar,
honey, maple syrup, and molasses for individual and household use.
ERS relies on estimates of refined cane and beet sugar deliveries published by USDA's Farm Service Agency
(FSA) in Sweetener Market Data. These estimates include sugar refined from domestic and imported raw
sugar as well as refined sugar imports. As required by law, all sugar beet processors and sugar cane refiners in the United States and
Puerto Rico provide FSA with monthly reports on deliveries of refined sugar. USDA's Foreign
Agricultural Service provides FSA with estimates of refined sugar imports.
ERS estimates deliveries of corn sweeteners (high-fructose corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose) for
domestic food and beverage uses (excluding nonfood uses), using information from industry contacts,
consulting firms, and Census Bureau import data.
ERS divides total deliveries of various sweeteners by total U.S. population to estimate per capita deliveries.
Estimates of per capita delivery help determine whether Americans, on average, are consuming more or
less added sugars over time.
The Amber Waves feature, "Behind the Data," takes a look at Estimating Consumption of Caloric Sweeteners.
Coffee, Tea, and Cocoa
Except for small quantities of coffee grown in Hawaii, the United States does not commercially grow
coffee, tea, or cocoa. Thus, imports supply virtually all U.S. needs for these tropical products.
Since stocks data for coffee, tea, and cocoa are no longer available, supply and disappearance tables for these
items include only net changes in stock levels rather than estimated beginning and ending stock levels
as previously shown. The net change in stocks is estimated as a residual.
ERS estimates coffee supply by summing Hawaiian production and
U.S. imports. Food availability, as a proxy for consumption
is estimated by adding domestic roastings and net imports of
roasted and instant coffee. The balance sheet
is reported on a green-bean-weight basis. Net imports of roasted
coffee are converted at 1.19 pounds of green beans for 1 pound
of roasted coffee. Instant coffee is converted at 2.5 pounds
of green beans for 1 pound of instant coffee. Larger conversion
factors were used in earlier years when the processing of instant
coffee was
less efficient. Per capita availability data are published on
a green-bean-weight and retail-weight basis. Retail weight is
the
roasted or instant weight as sold in retail stores.
All tea is on a leaf-equivalent basis. It takes about 2.5 pounds
of tea leaves to make 1 pound of instant soluble tea. The supply
of tea, which is based on U.S. imports, includes all forms of
black tea, tea bags, instant tea, and tea mixes. Herbal teas
are excluded. Disappearance is derived from the difference between
imports and exports because there are no stock data for tea.
This measure tends to fluctuate more than tea consumption would
be expected to fluctuate, however, because imports tend to be
erratic. Therefore,
ERS estimates tea availability by subtracting exports from imports
and
assuming disappearance for each year is equivalent to a 3-year
moving average of imports minus exports.
ERS estimates supply and disappearance of cocoa (bean equivalent), using import data for product forms such as
beans, chocolate liquor, cocoa butter, cocoa powder, and sweetened products. It is assumed that 1
pound of unsweetened chocolate is obtained from 1.25 pounds of cocoa beans. Chocolate liquor contains
about 53 percent cocoa butter (fat) and 47 percent cocoa powder (nonfat solids). Cocoa powder is
converted to a bean equivalent, using a factor of 1.18, and cocoa butter, using a factor of 1.33.
Cocoa bean availability is estimated as the U.S. annual cocoa
bean grind, plus net imports of semi-processed products (unsweetened
chocolate, cocoa powder, cocoa butter) and consumer products.
Per capita cocoa availability is published for both a whole-bean
and chocolate liquor basis,
which
is
80 percent of the weight of the beans. Retail weight is the weight
of the chocolate liquor.
Miscellaneous Beverages
ERS has augmented beverage data on specific commodity groups
(such as fluid milk, coffee, and tea) with industry data on
soft drinks, bottled water, and alcoholic beverages. Although
these products are not part of USDA's purview for study, they
are provided here for data system users.
All beverage data are presented in gallons per capita. ERS converts fluid milk and juice data from pounds to gallons, using factors from Weights, Measures, and Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities and Their Products. Coffee is converted to fluid equivalent on the basis of 60 6-oz. cups per pound of regular roasted coffee and 187.5 6-oz. cups per pound of instant coffee. ERS assumes a conversion rate of 200 6-oz. cups per pound of tea, leaf equivalent.
ERS uses data from the Beverage Marketing Corporation of New York on per capita soft drink and bottled water consumption. Per capita data on distilled liquor, wine, and beer are from the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, Inc., the Beer Institute, and the Wine Institute.
Spices and Herbs
Most U.S. supplies of herbs and spices are derived from net imports (imports less exports) of
over 20 spices plus a miscellaneous group, as reported by the Census Bureau. The remaining supply comes
from the domestic production of mustard seed and dried chile peppers. Small amounts of domestic
production of other spices are not included in the total. ERS assumes that all annual production
is consumed the following year, with no allowance for changes in stocks of imported spices because
there are no estimates of stocks.
Written by ERS commodity analysts (Mark Ash, Allen Baker, Don Blayney, Nathan Childs, Erik Dohlman, Steve Haley,
David Harvey, Andy Jerardo, Keithly Jones, Gary Lucier, Jim Miller, Ken Nelson, Agnes Perez, Susan Pollack, Fawzi Taha,
and Gary Vocke) and by Steve Koplin from NMFS in the case of seafood. Parts of this documentation are adapted
from the 1989 edition of Major Statistical Series of the U.S. Department of Agriculture: Consumption
and Use of Agricultural Products.
For more information see Related Links and Glossary.
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