USDA Economic Research Service Data Sets
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Data Sets

Agricultural Trade Multipliers: ERS Estimates

ERS Trade Multipliers (Partially Closed Model)

These categories contain agricultural or agriculturally derived products. (For example, “Buttons, pins, and all other miscellaneous” includes feathers.) They are listed by stage of processing as reflected in the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), 2002 NAICS Codes and Titles.

Note: It is not appropriate to sum multipliers to derive a multiplier for a group of product categories. Please use the Calculator  for this purpose. You will be able to group these categories and calculate a multiplier for the aggregate.

To estimate the effect on the economy from a given value of agricultural exports, multiply the employment multiplier times that export value. The result equals total employment generated by exports. Alternatively, the output multiplier times the export value equals total output generated by exports.

2006 ERS trade multipliers (partially closed model)

CommodityProducer employment multiplierPort employment multiplierProducer output multiplierPort output multiplier
  (Jobs/billion $ export value)(Jobs/billion $ export value)($ total economic output/$ export value)($ total economic output/$ export value)
Soybeans43,79535,7187.289.09
Other oilseeds19,39430,6407.289.09
Wheat54,59528,4348.297.40
Rice53,22928,4008.397.47
Corn55,23528,4808.277.39
Other feed crops17,12724,1578.277.39
Vegetables and melons43,57425,6748.697.03
Tree nuts104,44934,42513.559.16
Fruits53,41921,6367.555.45
Greenhouse and nursery products69,00830,6058.127.55
Tobacco58,48733,6996.997.83
Cotton39,06141,5937.9710.27
Sugarcane and sugar beets 69,56028,0216.905.99
All other crops33,91124,9187.176.82
Cattle62,26630,9998.547.26
Poultry and eggs69,22835,7849.539.17
Animal production, except cattle, poultry, and eggs52,91426,5627.206.37
Forest nursery, forest and timber tract products33,88333,2627.577.72
Fish33,41327,2067.727.68
Dog and cat food10,19525,4748.918.12
Other animal food 10,35526,9839.138.45
Flour milling products6,03925,8118.778.00
Rice milling products6,12326,5448.908.25
Malt 6,19723,9629.197.60
Wet corn milling products5,84724,6788.547.80
Processed soybean products6,23626,1008.867.83
Other oilseed products6,24026,5638.927.85
Fats and oils refining and blending products6,50925,6229.308.12
Breakfast cereal 7,75024,8158.787.67
Sugar 10,36923,9329.117.21
Confectionery products from cacao beans20,07822,1317.926.67
Nonchocolate confectionery products19,58320,5907.556.28
Frozen food products21,43122,6518.146.70
Dried and canned fruit and vegetable products17,43521,8878.176.64
Fluid milk 13,83528,1039.388.01
Creamery butter 8,83925,5789.437.69
Cheese9,01827,6949.638.07
Dry condensed and evaporated dairy products7,52422,2448.036.71
Ice cream and frozen dessert16,74223,3648.437.09
Animal (except poultry) slaughtering14,35329,5209.427.94
Meat processed from carcasses21,99328,8679.588.16
Rendering and meat byproducts19,66125,4468.607.44
Processed poultry products40,01832,22710.228.69
Frozen cakes and other pastries40,88723,9098.456.70
Bread and bakery products (except frozen)37,73124,9567.826.57
Cookies and crackers18,11420,2137.466.29
Mixes and dough made from purchased flour19,55721,6148.036.68
Dry pasta products17,17319,1427.075.84
Roasted nuts and peanut butter16,27925,6919.247.62
Other snack foods 13,45420,5617.546.35
Coffee and tea 13,20824,8018.827.26
Flavoring syrups and concentrates 7,55712,9274.964.36
Mayonnaise dressings and sauces11,81020,1177.786.53
Spices and extracts11,01119,5107.266.07
All other food products13,10124,1148.637.38
Soft drinks and ice 14,85420,4637.966.58
Brewery products5,26216,5816.295.40
Wines6,30419,7227.606.27
Tobacco stemming and redrying products3,88414,7088.784.79
Other miscellaneous textile products37,08929,2938.798.09
Other basic organic chemical products4,31122,0579.228.03
Pharmaceutical and medicine products9,40218,3706.786.00
Adhesive products15,01922,3968.397.27
Surface active agents11,29122,7919.218.03
Other miscellaneous chemical products15,70822,2658.447.08
Rubber and plastics hose and belting 30,20824,5498.167.28
Buttons, pins, and all other miscellaneous36,73825,4478.477.21
Scrap08,9750.002.52
Rest of the world adjustment to final uses000.000.00

 

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For more information, contact: William Edmondson

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Updated date: October 11, 2007