Documentation
Note: the model forecasts are not official USDA
forecasts. See USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
for official USDA season-average price forecasts. See USDA's Farm Service Agency information for official
USDA CCP rates.
Forecast Updates
The Excel files are updated monthly and will be posted on the
same day as the release of USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE). See the ERS Calendar of Releases for the schedule.
Source Report
Users are highly encouraged to read Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for
U.S. Corn: An Application of the Futures Price Forecasting
Model (January 2005). This report provides background
information on the futures forecast model for corn, its data
requirements, the forecast procedure, and forecast results for crop
years 2003/04 and 2004/05.
Model Components
Each spreadsheet model (corn, soybeans, and wheat) contains
seven separate worksheets. The forecasts are provided on a
marketing-year basis (September-August for corn and soybeans and
June-May for wheat).
- The Contents sheet provides an explanation of
each spreadsheet in the file.
- The 2012/13 forecast worksheet provides:
-
- A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and
implied counter-cyclical payment rate. Users may change the weekly
forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
- A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
- An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the
weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
- The 2011/12 forecast worksheet provides:
- A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and
implied counter-cyclical payment rate. Users may change the weekly
forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
- A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
- An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the
weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
- On the Change forecast worksheet, users can
change the model's forecasts by inserting their own numbers for
futures prices, monthly basis values, and/or monthly marketing
weights.
- The Definitions worksheet defines key terms
associated with the futures forecast model.
- The Documentation worksheet provides a brief
description of the forecast model, data sources, and forecast
procedures.
- The Data worksheet provides current and
historical data needed to produce the marketing-year
forecasts:
-
- Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by
marketing year,
- Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year,
- Monthly basis values by marketing year,
- Monthly marketing weights by marketing year,
- Monthly season-average-price-received projections from WASDE,
and
- Policy parameters (target prices, loan rates, and direct
payment rates)
Additional Documentation
Additional documentation of the models and data can be found on
the Documentation tab of each commodity spreadsheet.
Related Research
Using
Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average U.S. Corn Price
(a paper presented at the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity
Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in St.
Louis, MO, April 19-20, 2004) provides the theoretical background
and forecast accuracy of the futures price model.