Note: The data product format has been updated to improve the user experience. The updated excel file [futmodel-calculator.xlsx] provides recent forecast outputs and calculator tables for users to enter new input data and generate new output forecasts for all commodities. The recent forecast outputs are also provided in a machine-readable format through a separate csv output forecast file [outputfc.csv]. Historical output forecasts are no longer in stand-alone historical forecast Excel files but are provided in the csv output forecast file [outputfc.csv] together with recent forecast outputs. Historical input data is no longer in the Excel file(.xlsx) but is provided in a separate csv input data file [inputdata.csv].
Overview
Season-Average Price (SAP), also known as Market Year Average (MYA) price, is the national average price received by U.S. farmers for a commodity during a 12-month marketing year. The official MYA price statistics are prepared and released by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and are used in U.S. farm bill commodity programs: the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs. The PLC and ARC programs are administered by USDA, Farm Service Agency (FSA), offering financial assistance to agricultural producers. For more information on farm bill commodity programs, see the USDA, ERS’ webpage Farm & Commodity Policy - Title I: Crop Commodity Program Provisions and USDA, FSA’s webpage ARC & PRC program.
This data product provides models and forecasts of MYA prices for commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, and upland cotton. The models also compute forecasts for PLC payment rates and county/individual Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC-CO/ARC-IC) prices based on the MYA model forecasts. The models do not compute ARC program payments because those calculations require State-, county-, or farm-level data.
The model forecasts use U.S. futures prices and other publicly available data released by USDA, NASS. The model forecasts reflect information about what recent futures prices imply for MYA prices and ARC and PLC programs in the current and upcoming marketing years. Recent and historical forecasts and their input data are provided in csv files. An Excel file that allows users to enter new input data (futures prices, basis, and marketing percentage) and create new forecasts is also provided.
Instructions to Access Model Forecasts
Model forecasts of MYA prices, PLC payment rates, and ARC-CO/IC prices can be found in an excel calculator file [futmodel-calculator.xlsx] or a csv output forecast file [outputfc.csv]. The model forecasts are compared with USDA official projections of MYA prices released in World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports that were available when model forecasts were made and their implied PLC payment rates and ARC-CO/IC prices.
The excel calculator file [futmodel-calculator.xlsx] provides recent forecast outputs for the current and next marketing year, while the calculator file allows users to enter new input data (for example, more recent futures prices) and generate new forecasts.
The csv output forecast file [outputfc.csv] archives recent and historical forecasts. For example, to find the model forecasts for corn for marketing year 2024/25 made on February 6, 2025, users could open the csv output forecast file [outputfc.csv] and select the row with column “model forecast date” equals to 2/6/2025, column “commodity” equals to corn, and column “marketing year” equals to 2024. The forecasts will be shown in the selected row.
Additionally, a csv input data file [inputdata.csv] provides input data used in the models for generating recent and historical forecasts. Users may use the data to construct their own forecast program or construct different inputs for the forecast model (see below Update input data and create new forecasts section).
Update Input Data and Create New Forecasts
Users are encouraged to update the input data and create new output forecasts by using the excel calculator file [futmodel-calculator.xlsx] or users’ own program.
Excel calculator [futmodel-calculator.xlsx]:
- Users may update the futures price (table 1, column D) to more recent prices by checking the exchange’s website, so that the model forecasts become more up to date.
- Users may use different monthly basis values (table 1, column E) or marketing percentage values (table 1, column F) such as historical averages made by different averaging methods using data provided in the csv input data file [inputdata.csv] or use forward-looking estimates from other sources.
- Users’ changes in input data in table 1, column D/E/F will automatically produce new forecasts of the MYA price and PLC payment rate, ARC-CO/IC price in the header section. This calculator file follows the forecast procedure provided on the documentation page.
Users’ own program:
- Users may follow the forecast procedure on the documentation page to build their own forecasting program, use new input data, and create new forecasts.
- Users may use more recent futures prices (from the exchange’s website) in Step #2 of the forecast procedure so that the model forecasts become more up to date.
- Users may use different monthly basis values or monthly marketing percentage values in Step #3 and #4 of the forecast procedure. These values could be historical averages made by different averaging methods using data provided in the csv input data file [inputdata.csv] or forward-looking estimates from other sources.