Food Availability Documentation
Food availability estimates measure food supplies moving from
production through marketing channels for domestic consumption.
This data series provides estimates of per capita availability for
hundreds of commodities. The food availability data series is a
popular proxy for actual food consumption and is especially useful
for those interested in time series data. This page covers general
information, methodological concepts, and a detailed discussion of
the supply and disappearance estimates.
The section Estimating Supply and Disappearance of Major
Foods describes methods and data sources used to develop the
supply and disappearance balance sheets and per capita food
availability tables for each commodity and/or commodity group. The
composition of each commodity and/or commodity group, the
conversion from primary to retail weight, and special problems
related to coverage are discussed. The following commodities are
covered:
In Brief
The per capita food availability data compiled by USDA's
Economic Research Service reflect the amount of food available for
human consumption in the United States. This historical series
measures the national food supply of several hundred foods, and it
is the only source of time series data on U.S. food availability in
the country. ERS's food availability data are often referred to as
food disappearance data because the data represent the resulting
food supply after food "disappears" into the food marketing system.
ERS calculates the residual of a commodity's total annual available
supply after subtracting measurable uses, such as farm inputs (feed
and seed), exports, ending stocks, and industrial uses. The annual
data series includes per capita food availability estimates, which
are useful for studying food consumption trends because they are a
proxy for actual food intake.
History Behind the Data
Although USDA has collected and published information on food
production since the 1860s, information on food consumption did not
appear until much later. Interest in food consumption was
stimulated by surpluses in agriculture following World War I. The
need for accurate data became apparent in analyzing and
administering production planning programs under the Agricultural
Adjustment Act of 1933. One objective of these programs was
maintaining adequate supplies of food for domestic consumers.
Droughts in 1934 and 1936 and consequent fears of food shortages
further aroused interest in analyzing the national food supply.
USDA issued its first estimates of per capita food availability
in 1941 for use in appraising food requirements and resources in
the war emergency. Since then, estimates of per capita availability
of major foods have been published annually with only a few
exceptions. Historical series on per capita food availability were
developed to analyze long-term trends, shifts in demand, and
nutrients provided by foods. Data were estimated back to 1909 for
many foods.
Construction of
the Data
Food availability data measure the use of basic commodities,
such as wheat, beef, and shell eggs for food products at the farm
level or an early stage of processing. They do not measure food use
of highly processed foods--such as bakery products, frozen dinners,
and soups--in their finished form. Ingredients of highly processed
foods, however, are included as components of less processed foods,
such as sugar, flour, fresh vegetables, and fresh meat.
The food availability series is based on records of annual
commodity flows from production to end uses. This involves the
development of supply and disappearance balance sheets for each
major commodity from which human foods are produced. In general,
the total annual available supply of each commodity consists of the
sum of production, imports, and beginning stocks. These three
components are either directly measured or estimated by government
agencies using sampling and statistical methods.
Available commodity supply (production + imports + beginning
stocks) - Measurable nonfood use (farm inputs + exports + ending
stocks, etc.) = Total annual food supply of a commodity.
For most commodity categories, measurable nonfood uses
are farm inputs (feed and seed), exports, ending stocks, and
industrial uses. The amount of food available for human consumption
is calculated as the difference between available commodity
supplies and nonfood use. In a few cases, supplies for human food
use are measured directly and one of the other use components
becomes the residual. This is the case for wheat, in which flour
production is measurable and available from manufacturers' reports
on flour milling and therefore, livestock feed use becomes the
residual.
Per capita food availability is calculated by dividing the
annual total food supply during a specific time period by the U.S.
total resident population plus Armed Forces overseas in a given
year. Yearly population estimates are from the U.S. Census Bureau.
For commodities not shipped overseas in substantial amounts, such
as fluid milk and cream, ERS uses the resident population as the
base. No adjustments are made for changes in the demographic makeup
of the population.
Because food availability data are presented for calendar years,
the supply and disappearance tables are adjusted from crop years,
using data provided by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) on January 1 stocks or monthly marketings by
producers, to calendar years. Crops not marketed by the end of the
calendar year are assumed to be marketed during the following year.
That is, estimates of ending stocks are used as
beginning stocks in the next period. For perishable
products such as various types of produce, ending and beginning
stocks are not components of the balance sheets.
Data Sources
ERS develops commodity supply and disappearance balance sheets
for raw and semi-processed agricultural commodities--wheat, corn,
red meat, and fluid milk, for example--that are made into food
products. These balance sheets use data from a variety of
government and private sources. USDA's NASS surveys are a major
source of data on farm production, stocks, and some processed
products (including manufactured dairy products). Stocks include
those commercially held and those owned or under loan by USDA's
Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Stocks normally reported
include those held on farms, in terminal markets, in cold storage,
and in other warehouses. NASS statisticians use the Census of
Agriculture and reports from marketing agencies to check their
survey estimates.
Other sources of information include the U.S. Census Bureau and
USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service. For example, the Census
Bureau compiles trade information from U.S. Customs Service reports
to provide foreign trade data and estimates of territorial
shipments (primarily to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Alaska and Hawaii were treated as territories through 1959 before
they became States). Finally, in estimating production of processed
food products, ERS supplements NASS production data with
information from other appropriate sources, such as trade
association reports.
Level of Measurement
Data on various components of the supply and disappearance
balance sheets come from different sources, and measurements are
not always at the same point in the production and marketing
system. Before a balance sheet can be constructed, all components
must be converted to a common unit, or primary weight, to
measure production. The structure of the marketing system and the
availability of data dictate the point in the marketing system
where production is measured. For some commodities, such as fruit
and vegetables, the primary measurement level is at the farm gate.
For others, such as margarine, it is at the processing or
manufacturing plant.
Once the primary weight of production is selected,
quantities of other components from the balance sheet are converted
to the same level of marketing, using appropriate conversion
factors. For example, production data for meats are based on
slaughter plant data; therefore, carcass weight is the primary
weight for meats. Meat imports, usually measured in retail or
processed weights, are converted to carcass-weight equivalents
before aggregation in the balance sheet.
For many food groups, ERS converts food availability figures
from a primary weight to a secondary weight or
retail-weight equivalent, using conversion factors that account for
further processing, trimming, shrinkage, or loss in the marketing
and distribution system. For example, ERS provides estimates of the
per capita availability of red meat, poultry, and fish on a
boneless, trimmed-weight basis in addition to the estimates on a
carcass-weight basis. The boneless weight excludes all bones and
some separable fat from red meat, poultry, and fish. However, no
adjustment is made in the food availability data series for cooking
loss, plate waste, or spoilage. The boneless weight provides a
comparable basis for measuring the per capita availability of
poultry, red meat, and fish. The difference between the estimates
of per capita availability of meat and poultry on a boneless-weight
and retail-weight basis is due to differences in the proportion of
bone and other inedible components in the retail weight. Retail
cuts of chicken and pork contain a larger proportion of bone than
retail cuts of beef.
Strengths and
Limitations of the Data
Data are collected by USDA directly from producers and
distributors using techniques that vary by commodity. The data are
not collected from individual consumers, and thus provide an
independent basis for examining dietary trends without the problems
implicit in consumer survey data. If waste and other losses in the
system are relatively constant over time, the data can provide an
independent measure of changes in consumption patterns. Thus,
trends in per capita availability data can also be used to test
hypotheses that government and general sources of diet and health
information are affecting consumers' food choices.
The series measures food supplies available for consumption in
all outlets--at home and away from home. It measures food use of
basic commodities without identifying all end use products, thereby
eliminating common problems with food intake survey data, such as
decomposing compound foods like lasagna or beef stew back into
commodity ingredients. However, final product forms and consumption
locations are usually unknown, and little data exist on supplies of
more highly processed foods. In short, relatively good data exist
for many food ingredients (for example, flour, sugar, or eggs) but
not for common food products (for example, bread, cookies, or beef
hot dogs).
In addition, food availability data provide good estimates of
the annual per capita availability of kidney beans, for example,
but provide no information on the different ways that the beans
were processed for consumption (canned or dried), where the beans
were marketed (supermarket, hospital, school, restaurant, or food
manufacturer), how they were consumed (in burritos, chili, or
salad), or how they were prepared (made from scratch or reheated
from canned). The data do not show where the food is consumed
because the data are derived from food production statistics rather
than from direct observations of consumption. The poundage
represents food available for consumption from all sources,
including grocery stores, restaurants, and government food and
nutrition assistance programs.
To correctly interpret the data, it is also important to
understand that the data are aggregates for the United States and
that no data are available for use as a proxy for consumption
within States or regions or by socioeconomic or demographic
categories (such as those of the consumer who ultimately ate the
food).
Sources of Error
Several potential sources of error may affect interpretation and
use of the balance sheets and food availability data. Because food
use is generally estimated as the residual of the balance sheets,
food use data are subject to the various types of errors present in
each of the balance sheet components. Primary sources of error are
incomplete reporting, inaccurate conversion factors, and
inappropriate estimation techniques. In compiling the data, ERS
makes substantial efforts to maintain consistency in methods used
to measure availability trends and to avoid introducing new sources
of error.
The scarcity of information on the components of supply and
disappearance introduces one source of error. For example, data on
stocks are not available for some commodities. The only available
data for estimating stocks for some commodities come from farmer
marketings of crops, and it is assumed that stocks are equal to the
proportion of the crop not marketed by the end of the calendar
year. Moreover, stocks do not include inventories of retailers and
wholesalers because those data are not available.
Perhaps more importantly, the data may overstate the amount of
food actually ingested by humans by capturing substantial
quantities of nonedible food portions and food lost through waste
and spoilage in the home and marketing system. The series also
includes unknown quantities of foods that are used as ingredients
in processed foods that are exported, such as soft drinks, baked
goods, and cereal products. For example, the food supply series for
caloric sweeteners includes some high fructose corn syrup (HFCS)
used by U.S. beverage manufacturers to make soft drinks for export.
As a result of the inclusion of these foods and overcounting, the
average calories provided by the food supply are generally well
above those needed to meet the energy needs of the U.S. population.
Therefore, ERS also provides loss-adjusted food availability data
to more closely approximate actual intake (see Loss-Adjusted
Documentation).
Usefulness of the
Data
Per capita food availability data are used extensively for
analytical and comparative purposes. Economists use the series to
estimate effects of changes in price, income, and information on
food consumption. Market researchers use the data to study changes
in consumption and market shares for food commodities.
The per capita food availability data are most commonly used as
a proxy for actual food intake or consumption. In particular, they
are used to:
- Measure the average level of food consumption in the
country
- Show year-to-year changes in the consumption of major
foods
- Estimate long-term consumption trends
- Assess changes in estimated food consumption relative to major
nutrition or policy initiatives
Food availability data are also used to construct two other data
series:
-
Loss-Adjusted Food Availability: Because the per capita
food availability data do not account for all spoilage and waste
that accumulates in the marketing system and is discarded in the
home, the data typically overstate actual consumption. Therefore,
ERS calculates a set of estimates that account for food loss prior
to ingestion. Per capita food availability poundages are adjusted
for food loss, including spoilage, inedible components (such as
bones in meat and pits in fruit), plate waste, and use as pet food.
These estimates also include the loss-adjusted daily number of
calories consumed (per capita) and the daily food pattern
equivalents (previously called servings and MyPyramid
equivalents).
-
Nutrient Availability: USDA's Center for Nutrition
Policy and Promotion (CNPP) computes a related statistical series
on total nutrients available for human consumption per capita per
day. This series combines the detailed ERS estimates of per capita
food availability and CNPP information on the nutrient content of
foods, including inedible waste, such as bones and excess fat in
meat. The resultant time series provides data on the effects of
changing food use and composition of nutrients available for
consumption. This data series can be found on both the ERS and the
CNPP
websites.
Estimating Supply and
Disappearance of Major Foods
This section describes methods and data sources used for
developing the supply and disappearance balance sheets and per
capita food availability tables for each commodity and/or commodity
group. The composition of each commodity group, the conversion from
primary to retail weight, and the special problems related to
coverage are also discussed.
Meat
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance tables
annually and quarterly for most red meats: beef, veal, pork, and
lamb and mutton. Meat availability estimates include fresh and
processed meats used and sold through grocery stores and
restaurants.
Meat production data are usually derived from three sources:
slaughter under Federal inspection, other commercial slaughter, and
slaughter on farms. Data on the number and weight of animals
slaughtered under Federal inspection are obtained through meat
inspection programs administered by USDA's Food Safety and
Inspection Service (FSIS) but are reported by USDA's NASS. NASS
also collects slaughter statistics on meat production in plants not
federally inspected and on the number and weight of animals
slaughtered on farms. Beginning and ending stock data are from
NASS. Import and export data are from the U.S. Department of
Commerce.
Production data are based on carcass weight in pounds of product
at the slaughter plant. Commercial stocks and most imports and
exports are on a product-weight basis but are converted to carcass
weight for use in the supply and disappearance balance sheets. ERS
also converts meat data to retail-weight and boneless,
trimmed-weight food availability equivalents. The retail weight
measure represents supplies on a retail-weight basis converted from
the carcass-weight equivalent basis. The boneless-weight measure
excludes all bones but includes separable fat sold on retail cuts
of meat. Conversion factors are used to account for processing,
trimming, shrinkage, or loss in the distribution system when
converting between carcass-, retail-, and boneless-weight measures.
In most cases, food availability estimates at the carcass level
include pet food because data are not available to separate it from
food for human consumption.
The conversion factors for the different types of meat are
periodically changed to reflect changing production and marketing
practices. For example, the amount of trimmed fat in beef has
increased over time. In addition, yield grades have gradually
improved, requiring less fat to be trimmed. Yield grades predict
the yield of trimmed cuts from a carcass--lower numbers mean higher
yields. As yield grades improved, the average carcass weights
increased, and both factors imply a strong tendency for cattle
carrying less fat. The conversion factor used to estimate
retail-equivalent weight from the carcass weight of pork has
gradually increased over time, reflecting a reduction in the fat
content of hogs.
ERS calculates per capita red meat availability for a specific
year by dividing annual total disappearance of a particular type of
meat by the Census Bureau's estimate of the U.S. total resident
population plus Armed Forces overseas. ERS provides the per capita
availability data on a carcass-weight, retail-weight, and boneless,
trimmed-weight basis.
Poultry
Per capita food availability estimates for poultry products
(broilers, mature chicken, and turkeys) are published in several
sources. Broilers are young chickens of either sex produced for
meat. The terms "broilers," "fryers," and "young chickens" are
interchangeable. Estimates of per capita availability are published
monthly in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report. This report contains the latest monthly revisions
to the quarterly supply and demand estimates, which form the basis
for estimating per capita availability. Historical per capita
availability data are reported on a monthly, quarterly, and yearly
basis in ERS's Poultry Yearbook. Per capita poultry
availability estimates are actual estimates of domestic
disappearance (implied consumption or availability) using secondary
data sources rather than primary observations of individual
consumption.
ERS uses a similar procedure to construct supply and
disappearance tables for broilers, mature chicken, and turkeys. The
first step is to estimate domestic production for the three poultry
meats. The domestic production estimates come from NASS's monthly
Poultry Slaughter report. This report contains
estimates of the domestic production of the three poultry meats on
a ready-to-cook (RTC) basis. The estimates for domestic production
are multiplied by a coefficient to estimate the amount of
production condemned after processing. This estimate is subtracted
from overall production to derive net production on an RTC
basis.
The second step is to estimate poultry meat products in cold
storage at the beginning of the period (monthly, quarterly,
yearly). Estimates of cold storage holdings come from the NASS Cold Storage report.
The third step is to estimate poultry meat imports. These
estimates are derived from U.S. Census Bureau data. The data,
originally in a large number of categories, are aggregated into
estimates of imported broilers, mature chicken, and turkeys.
The estimates of net production, beginning stocks, and imports
are added together to arrive at the total supply of poultry
products available for consumption. Estimates of poultry products
exported and ending stocks in cold storage are then subtracted from
the total supply figure to estimate implied domestic availability.
This figure is then divided by an estimate of the total resident
population of the United States plus Armed Forces overseas to
derive per capita availability on a carcass-weight basis. This
estimate of availability of broilers and mature chickens is a proxy
for consumption of whole birds. Since a large percentage of
availability is of chicken parts, these estimates are multiplied by
a coefficient to arrive at a per capita availability estimate on a
retail weight basis. Turkey availability has no conversion factor
between RTC and retail weight.
See Amber Waves article Chicken Consumption Continues Longrun
Rise.
Eggs
ERS compiles supply and disappearance tables for eggs using
mostly NASS data. To exclude eggs for hatching from the
calculations, ERS estimates numbers of hatching eggs from numbers
of chicks hatched and a hatch percentage calculated from weekly
eggs placed in incubators and chicks hatched. Data on stocks,
exports, and imports of dried, liquid, and frozen eggs are reported
by product weight, with weights converted to shell-egg equivalents
for use in the supply and disappearance balance sheet. While the
balance sheet is based on dozens of shell-egg equivalents, data are
also available in cases (30 dozen per case) and pounds (1.57 pounds
per dozen).
Egg availability includes fresh and processed uses by
manufacturers and institutional outlets, such as hospitals, hotels,
and restaurants. Egg availability also includes use as a culture
medium for lab use because data are not available to distinguish
this use from the total estimate for human consumption.
Fishery Products
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) of the U.S.
Department of Commerce compiles data on supply and disappearance of
fishery products. The total U.S. supply of imports and landings is
converted to edible weight, and decreases in supply--such as
exports--are subtracted. The remaining total is divided by the U.S.
resident population plus Armed Forces overseas to estimate per
capita availability. Data are derived primarily from secondary
sources and are subject to incomplete reporting; changes in source
data or invalid model assumptions may also have a significant
effect on the resulting calculation. NMFS publishes separate
balance sheets on an edible-weight basis for fresh, frozen, canned,
and cured fish, as well as for total fish and shellfish. The series
Fisheries of the United States on the NMFS website contains related
supply and disappearance data.
Production data for fresh or frozen fish and shellfish from NMFS
surveys relate only to commercial landings of major cultured
species (for example, salmon, sardines, and tuna). Commercial
processors prepare regular reports on canned and cured seafood.
Alaskan and Hawaiian production of fresh and frozen fishery
products have been included since 1960, consistent with reports for
most other commodities. Canned production includes production from
Alaska in all years, Hawaii since 1952, Puerto Rico since 1953, and
American Samoa since 1954. Cured fishery products have been
included from Alaska since 1955 and from Hawaii since 1960. The
production data have been included for cultured catfish since 1973,
trout since 1991, and salmon, tilapia, striped bass, and shrimp
since 1996.
The Census Bureau provides foreign trade data on fishery
products. Imports of fresh, frozen, and cured fishery products are
adjusted to eliminate duplication resulting from domestic
production of canned and cured fish products from imported fish.
Exports of fishery products include both domestic and re-exported
products.
Data for stocks of fresh and frozen fish and shellfish held in
commercial cold storage facilities have been used since 1917. Data
for stocks of canned fish were incomplete and use was discontinued
in 1999.
Boneless Red Meat, Poultry,
and Fish
Since 1986, ERS has developed and published a series on
availability of meat, poultry, and fish on a boneless-weight basis.
These boneless-weight estimates serve as a proxy for consumption
and are mainly used to make comparisons of quantities of meat types
consumed. Analysts compare quantities based on boneless rather than
retail weight to estimate whether, for example, more turkey is
consumed than fish. Data on fish are available only on a
boneless-weight basis.
Factors for calculating boneless and trimmed weight were derived
from USDA data on the quantity of boneless meat obtained from a
carcass. These factors are based on values from ERS's Weights, Measures, and Conversion Factors for
Agricultural Commodities and Their Products and current ERS
estimates. The conversion factors for different kinds of meat are
included in the supply and disappearance spreadsheets for
particular meats (see the far right-hand column of
Red Meat: Supply and Disappearance 
). The boneless-weight measure for red
meat excludes all bones but includes separable fat sold on retail
cuts of meat. Boneless-weight figures for poultry are derived from
RTC figures, using USDA food composition data.
Dairy Products
Milk's various components are transformed into a tremendous
variety of dairy product basics, such as butter, cheese, yogurt,
and condensed and dry milk. Dairy products are consumed directly
but are also used as ingredients in a vast number of foods.
Analyzing the supply and demand conditions for farm milk requires
some way of adding dairy products together.
Aggregation method
To avoid confusion, ERS aggregates dairy products on a common
basis, by choosing a particular component (or a cluster of related
components) of milk and adding products based on the level of that
component in the product. Any component could work, but milkfat,
skim solids or protein, and calcium are the most common bases.
Milkfat has traditionally been most commonly used because
it is the most valuable component and the least likely to be wasted
or fed to animals.
The concept of milk equivalent was derived because a
quantity of milk is easier to grasp for most people than a quantity
of a component. More accurately, a milk equivalent, or the milkfat
basis of a product, is the farm milk required to provide the
milkfat in that product. The simplest way to obtain a factor to
convert product weight into a milk equivalent is to divide the fat
percentage of the product by the fat percentage of farm milk. For
example, a fat content of 27.5 percent in Swiss cheese and 3.67
percent in farm milk generates a factor of 7.49. In practice, many
of the conversion factors were derived by more intricate, but
conceptually close, procedures.
No single aggregation of products is likely to be satisfactory,
at least in the short run. Changes in milkfat-based product markets
(like butter) can be quite different from changes in skim-based
product markets (for example, nonfat dry milk). For this reason,
total dairy product availability is best understood if
simultaneously measured by a milkfat basis and a skim-solid
basis.
Avoiding double counting
For dairy products, the total is generally less than the sum of
the parts. Dairy products commonly are used as ingredients in the
production of other dairy products. For example, ice cream might
contain fresh milk and cream, condensed and dry milk, buttermilk,
whey, and butter. Unless extraordinary measures are taken to adjust
for duplication, adding availability of individual dairy products
into total dairy availability results in double counting. An easier
and more robust approach is to calculate aggregate availability
similarly to individual product availability (see Dairy products: Per capita
availability ). Stocks, trade, and the
other factors needed for the calculation are first aggregated into
totals that are free of duplication (because the components can
only be in one product at a time), and then total availability is
calculated. USDA's NASS estimates milk production and stocks; the
Census Bureau reports imports, exports, and shipments to U.S.
territories.
Storable dairy products
Availability of most storable manufactured dairy products is
estimated by relatively simple food disappearance calculations (see
commodity supply and disappearance tables for American cheese,
other cheese, total cheese, condensed and evaporated whole milk,
nonfat dry milk, and butter). Disappearance estimates for these
products generally involve few interpretation problems as most
manufactured dairy products undergo relatively little further
processing. The traditionally high cost of these products and their
straightforward marketing flow leads to relatively minor wastage
between manufacturing and consumer purchases. For example, a
considerable amount of cheese is trimmed off rectangular blocks
that are cut into specialty shapes such as "longhorns," but this
trim is then used in processed cheese products.
Perishable manufactured products
Availability of perishable manufactured products, such as ice
cream or cottage cheese, is set equal to production. Two problems
exist with this approach with no pragmatic alternative. First,
stocks and trade may be significant, particularly for ice cream. On
an annual basis, the magnitude of error is probably fairly small
but could be sizable for shorter periods. Second, spoilage occurs
in the distribution channels. At one time, waste was considerable;
however, longer shelf life, better packaging, and improved
refrigeration have mitigated losses considerably.
Sales of fluid milk, cream, and specialty products
Data for sales of fluid milk, cream, and specialty products are
compiled from Federal and State regulatory sources and estimates of
the very minor amounts of unregulated milk (see Dairy (fluid milk and cream): Per
capita availability ). For
beverage milks, the data represent quantities sold by fluid
processors net of any returns from retailers. At one time, returns
were quite significant, but improved raw milk quality, better
pasteurization, and improved distribution have reduced the amount
substantially. Beginning in 2000, availability data for fluid
creams and specialty fluid items changed from a net sales basis to
a production basis.
See an Amber Waves data feature Trends in U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Dairy
Products, 1909 to 2001.
Also see an Amber Waves article Americans' Dairy Consumption Below
Recommendations and Cheese Consumption Continues to Rise, and
"Behind the Data" on Measuring America's Cheese Consumption.
Added Fats and Oils
ERS constructs supply and disappearance tables for oilseeds,
such as soybeans, cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola seed, and
peanuts, and for the primary oil and meal products derived from
oilseeds and animal sources. Data for oil crop products are kept on
an October-September crop-year basis. These data are published in
the Oil Crops Yearbook. Data for stocks and crush
of oilseeds and the supply and disappearance of oilseed products
are derived from Current Industrial Reports of the U.S.
Department of Commerce.
The U.S. Department of Commerce also provides monthly
information on use of primary fats and oils in related products.
ERS summarizes the data according to primary oil products. For
example, soybean oil is distributed among various processed
products such as margarine and shortening. ERS estimates the amount
of each primary vegetable oil and animal fat used in the production
of margarine and publishes the results in its Oil Crops Yearbook. Analysts use data on the
distribution of primary oils in processed products in studying the
demand for particular oil crops. The summary by final product is
often used in estimating changes in the fatty acid content of the
fats and oils products consumed in the United States.
ERS also compiles supply and disappearance data for the major
manufactured fats and oils products, including margarine, edible
tallow, lard, shortening, and salad and cooking oils. These data
are used in the ERS Food Availability Data System to develop per
capita availability estimates. Food use data include availability
of fats and oils from all sources, whether purchased by consumers
or used by manufacturers and restaurants to produce bakery and
other food products. Food disappearance figures for lard and tallow
reflect only direct use by consumers, restaurants, institutions, or
manufacturers. Indirect use of lard and tallow in margarine and
shortening is accounted for in the disappearance figures for
margarine and shortening, which helps avoid double counting when
estimating total food fats and oils disappearance. For example, the
Food Availability Data System reports estimates for margarine and
shortening but does not report estimates for the soybean oil, other
vegetable oils, and animal fats used to make these products because
that would double count the amount of added fats and oils available
for consumption.
Disappearance may not be a reliable indicator of change in
consumption of fats and oils. Evidence suggests that the waste (or
nonfood use) portion of fats and oils disappearance has increased
during the past three decades with the growth in away-from-home
eating places, especially fast food places. Foodservice
establishments that deep fry foods can generate significant amounts
of waste grease, referred to as "restaurant grease." A study by SRI
International indicated that the quantity of used frying fat
disposed by restaurants and made available for use in animal feeds,
pet foods, industrial operations, and for export amounted to about
6 pounds per capita, or about 10 percent of the total disappearance
of food fats and oils in that year.
Peanuts
Data on the supply and disappearance of peanuts come from USDA's
NASS reports and from trade data compiled by the Census Bureau.
Annual production data are reported in the NASS publication Crop Production. The total supply for each
peanut marketing year (August to July) is the sum of production,
imports of shelled and in-shell peanuts, and the beginning stocks
for that year as reported in the NASS publication Peanut Stocks and Processing.
Peanut availability (use) data are broken down into exports,
seed and residual use, peanuts crushed for vegetable oil and
protein meal, and the largest category-food use or disappearance.
The food use and crush data are reported in the NASS publication
Peanut Stocks and Processing. The peanut domestic food use
calculation is based primarily on NASS's manufacturers survey data
on peanuts used to make peanut candy, snack peanuts, peanut butter,
and other products, plus the apparent disappearance of "roasting
stock" peanuts (from Peanut Stocks and Processing), with some adjustments for trade.
Summary data on peanut supply and disappearance on an in-shell
("farmer stock") basis are reported by ERS in the monthly Oil Crops Outlook. ERS uses a conversion
factor of 0.75 to convert in-shell data to a shelled basis.
Vegetables and
Melons
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance statistics
for a wide variety of commercially produced fresh vegetables and
melons. Although the supply and disappearance tables are essential
for industry analysis, their primary purpose is to estimate food
disappearance, both in total and on a per capita basis. Largely
compiled on a calendar-year basis, the per capita disappearance-or
food availability-statistics generated from these tables are
published in ERS's bi-monthly Vegetables and Melons Outlook. Many of the
supply and disappearance tables are released annually in the Vegetables and Melons Yearbook data
product.
Supply and disappearance coverage for vegetables and melons
(except potatoes and sweet potatoes):
Fresh vegetables and melons:
artichokes, celery, iceberg lettuce, spinach, asparagus, collards,*
Romaine/leaf lettuce, squash, snap beans, sweet corn, green lima
beans,* tomatoes, broccoli, cucumbers, mushrooms, turnip greens,*
brussels sprouts,* eggplant, mustard greens,* pumpkins,* cabbage,
endive/escarole,* okra,* cantaloupe, carrots, garlic, onions,
honeydew, cauliflower, kale,* bell peppers, watermelon, and
radishes.*
Vegetables for freezing: asparagus,
carrots, green peas, snap beans, cauliflower, green lima beans,*
broccoli, sweet corn, spinach, and miscellaneous.*
Vegetables for canning: asparagus,*
carrots, mushrooms, tomatoes, snap beans, sweet corn, green peas,
beets,* pickling cucumbers, Chile peppers, cabbage for kraut, green
lima beans,* spinach,* and miscellaneous.*
Other vegetables: dry edible beans,**
dry peas and lentils,* and onions for dehydration.
Notes:
- Data on potatoes and sweet potatoes are discussed
separately.
- *Only per capita disappearance or availability data are
published for these items; detailed supply and disappearance tables
are not published.
- **Dry edible beans consist of supply and disappearance
tables for 14 classes of beans aggregated to an all-bean
total.
In general, commodity disappearance data are derived by
adjusting total production or use for trade (exports minus
imports), stocks (inventories), and other uses where applicable
(seed, feed, shrink, and storage losses). Disappearance data
divided by the total annual U.S. population (including Armed Forces
overseas) yields an estimate of per capita availability. Per capita
availability data for fresh vegetables are presented on a
farm-weight and retail-weight basis.
The primary data sources used in determining vegetable and melon
supply and disappearance include NASS (production, frozen stocks,
pickling cucumber stocks, census acreage, and onion shrinkage), the
Census Bureau (import volume, export volume, and population
estimates), and industry sources (processing tomato stocks and
onion stocks). The data cover U.S.-produced vegetables and melons
for fresh markets, freezing, canning, and dehydrating (onions).
Fresh vegetables
Supply and disappearance estimates for fresh market vegetables
can be divided into three categories:
- Estimates based on NASS national production estimates
- Estimates based primarily on State-supplied production
estimates, and/or AMS shipments (for example, radishes, eggplant,
green lima beans, endive/escarole, and brussels sprouts)
- Estimates based largely on Census Bureau acreage with
interpolated intercensal years (for example, okra, collards, kale,
mustard greens, and turnip greens)
Annual fresh-market supply is largely determined by NASS
production estimates (except for selected crops where production is
estimated by ERS using alternative sources) plus import volume
reported by the Census Bureau. NASS fresh vegetable production
estimates cover the majority of harvested quantities destined for
sale in commercial markets; these data exclude produce from home
gardens and output from States that primarily serve local markets
for limited time periods.
Prior to the 1990s, imports usually entered the market during
the winter and early spring when domestic supplies were low.
Although the majority of volume still enters during the
Winter-early Spring market window, imports of fresh vegetables,
such as tomatoes and asparagus, are increasingly seen outside their
traditional season. Onions are the only fresh vegetable for which
stocks data exist (supplied by industry). NASS frozen stocks are
included in the brussels sprouts estimate because the supply and
disappearance table for this dual use (fresh and processing)
vegetable covers all uses. Shrink and loss estimates are
subtracted from onion and fresh cabbage supply. Although NASS
provides annual estimates for onions, ERS estimates cabbage
shrinkage and loss as 2 percent of production.
Per capita domestic disappearance or availability calculations
for most fresh-market vegetables are straightforward. U.S. imports
are added to domestic production to arrive at total supply. Except
for onions and brussels sprouts (frozen stocks), stocks are not
entered into the supply and disappearance equation for fresh
vegetables. U.S. export volume, shrinkage, and loss for onions and
cabbage are subtracted from total supply to yield net domestic use.
Domestic use is then divided by the July 1 estimate of the U.S.
population (including Armed Forces overseas) to arrive at the per
capita proxy for consumption.
Vegetables for freezing
The annual supply of vegetables destined for frozen products
(excluding potatoes) is largely determined by NASS production
estimates. Until 2005, the American Frozen Food Institute
(AFFI) estimated the production of frozen vegetables (frozen pack),
which was used by ERS to estimate production of carrots and
miscellaneous vegetables. The ERS estimate of production of carrots
for frozen items is 66 percent of the NASS estimate of carrots for
processing. This percentage is based on the average share of NASS
carrots for processing accounted for by AFFI pack during
1996-2000.
Since 2004, production estimates for miscellaneous vegetables
for freezing are based on 1980-2004 estimates of pack, imports, and
ending stocks. Import volume and beginning stocks are added to
production estimates to complete the annual supply estimate.
Domestic use is then calculated by subtracting export volume and
ending stocks from total supply. The miscellaneous category
consists of items such as collards, kale, mustard greens, okra,
black-eyed peas, pumpkin, rhubarb, summer squash, turnip greens,
turnips, and other vegetables. Since the supply and disappearance
tables of vegetables for freezing are presented on a fresh-weight
basis, all frozen product weight data for imports, exports, pack,
and stocks are converted to a fresh weight basis using conversion
factors published in Weights, Measures, and Conversion Factors for
Agricultural Commodities and Their Products.
Vegetables for canning
The annual supply of vegetables destined for canned products
(excluding potatoes) is largely determined by NASS production
estimates. For carrots, the NASS production estimate for processing
minus the ERS estimate of frozen pack yields the production
estimate. No estimate of miscellaneous vegetables for canning
exists, so domestic use is estimated simply as net imports (import
volume less export volume). Due to program cutbacks since 2001,
NASS ceased production estimates for beets and cabbage for kraut,
both of which are now estimated by ERS using available State data
and Census Bureau acreage. Canning supply and disappearance for
vegetables are calculated in the same manner as supply and
disappearance for freezing. Imports and beginning stocks are added
to production to arrive at total supply, with exports and ending
stocks subtracted from supply to yield domestic disappearance.
In the 1980s, the National Food Processors Association began to
phase out the reporting of canned vegetable stocks (all estimates
were dropped after 1989). Because of processor consolidation, these
estimates were dropped to lessen the potential for disclosure of
individual firms' operations. Inventory movements provide
year-to-year stability in total disappearance and per capita
availability estimates. When stocks are dropped out of the supply
and disappearance estimate, the year-to-year per capita use series
varies substantially because disappearance estimates swing with
production adjustments (which move based on stock levels and market
prices).
To maintain integrity in the year-to-year disappearance series,
ERS began estimating ending stocks for the major canning vegetables
based largely on historical patterns between stocks and production.
Despite an increased likelihood of errors in these estimations, ERS
decided to continue estimating December 31 stocks as a fixed share
of production. The share of production represented by ending stocks
in 1999 was carried forward beginning in 2000 for sweet corn, snap
beans, green peas, asparagus, and cabbage canning. Although stocks
data do not appear in supply and use estimates for chile peppers,
carrots, spinach, beets, and green lima beans, ERS does include
NASS stocks data in estimates for pickling cucumbers. In 1992, the
California League of Food Processors, in cooperation with tomato
processors, began to report quarterly stocks of processing tomatoes
held in California warehouses. These data have been essential for
determining national supply and disappearance of processing
tomatoes--a crop that accounts for about 70 percent of all
vegetables for canning.
Onions for dehydration
ERS compiles calendar year estimates of the supply and
disappearance of onions used for dehydration. More precise data
became available in 1992 when NASS began to explicitly separate out
California onion production for processing in its annual onion
estimates. Previously, ERS relied on industry estimates and rules
of thumb to determine the share of California's summer storage crop
dedicated to processing (virtually all onion dehydrating takes
place in California). The weak link in these data, as with data for
many canned vegetables, is the lack of finished stocks. Stock
estimates contained in the supply and disappearance table represent
raw onions to be processed.
The supply and disappearance table is similar to that for fresh
onions in that total supply is the sum of NASS production, Census
Bureau import volume, and an estimate for beginning dry bulb onion
stocks. Domestic disappearance equals total supply less the sum of
dehydrated onion export volume, ending dry bulb onion stocks, and
shrinkage and loss of raw onions for processing (estimated as 50
percent of the shrink in California's summer onion crop).
Dry edible beans
With over 1.3 million acres, dry edible beans cover more U.S.
area than any other single vegetable or melon crop. Dry beans is
actually a catchall category containing dozens of dry bean classes,
including pinto, navy, Great Northern, light-red kidney, and black
beans. Virtually all of these classes constitute separate markets
that operate independently of each other. As a result, ERS recently
began completing separate supply and disappearance tables for each
of 14 classes of NASS dry bean production estimates. Total supply
is calculated as NASS production plus import volume plus estimated
beginning stocks.
ERS largely estimates stocks based on the share of production
that is marketed the following calendar year. Thus, ending stocks
on December 31, 2007, for example, would be equal to production in
2007 less the share of the crop marketed during
September-December--the first 4 months of the 2007/08 crop year.
This estimation method is imprecise because dry beans can be held
over more than one season, and in years of large crops, ad hoc
adjustments may be necessary. NASS publishes monthly marketing
percentages by State for all dry beans at the close of each crop
year. ERS estimates the shares that apply to each bean class based
on the State where the majority of the crop is produced. The
exception is for beans produced primarily in California (e.g., baby
limas, large limas, and black-eyed peas), where stocks are reported
by industry.
Net domestic use is calculated by subtracting export volume,
seed use (area planted in the following year times an estimate of
seed use per acre), and ending stocks (on December 31) from total
supply. As is done for most other vegetables, net domestic use is
then divided by the July 1 estimate of the U.S. population
(including Armed Forces overseas) to arrive at the per capita food
availability estimates.
Mushrooms
ERS compiles crop year (July 1-June 30) supply and disappearance
data for fresh market and processing mushrooms. Calculation of
fresh market data follows the same procedure used for most fresh
market vegetables, with the exception of the population figure used
to calculate per capita use or availability. ERS uses a January 1
population figure for mushrooms, as that date falls in the middle
of the mushroom crop year. The procedure for processing mushrooms
(used mostly for canning) is similar to that for fresh mushrooms.
There are no stock data for processing mushrooms, so data on
production and net trade are used to determine net domestic use.
The annual NASS report, Mushrooms, provides production data for both
agaricus-types (the majority of mushroom output) and specialty
mushrooms, such as Shiitake and Crimini. Import and export volumes
of processed mushrooms from the Census Bureau are converted to a
fresh-weight basis using a factor of 1.538 for canned, 1.5 for
frozen, and 10.0 for dried/dehydrated mushrooms.
Limitations of vegetable supply and disappearance data
series
The first limitation is that disappearance or use cannot be
termed "vegetable consumption" per se. Rather, it represents the
apparent net use of vegetables produced on the farm. Although the
supply and disappearance series does not directly measure what
people eat, it nonetheless provides a useful measure of consumption
patterns and trends. In addition, the farm weight series is not
adjusted for factors such as loss during transportation from the
shipping point, shrinkage during retailing (such as spoilage,
trimming), and products thrown out unconsumed.
Second, ERS does not capture the entire universe of vegetables
produced and/or consumed by Americans. Despite the large number of
vegetables and melons included in the supply and disappearance
series, coverage is not complete. Many commodities are not included
due to a lack of information on which to base a solid
estimate--these include fresh green peas, various Asian vegetables
(such as bok choy, turnips, and rutabagas), fresh herbs (such as
dill and parsley), fresh beets, parsnips, leeks, scallions (green
onions), rhubarb, domestically produced greenhouse vegetables, and
other specialty and dehydrated vegetables. For canned and frozen
vegetables, ERS does maintain a miscellaneous supply and
disappearance table to capture the pack of miscellaneous frozen
vegetables and to account for net imports of canned and frozen
vegetables not specifically estimated.
Third, the information underlying per capita estimates is not
always complete. U.S. trade statistics have not consistently
included commodity-level detail over time. For example, data for
fresh sweet corn exports were not reported by the Census Bureau
until 1978; previously, sweet corn was included in a miscellaneous
vegetable export category. Thus, the supply and disappearance table
used to calculate per capita fresh sweet corn use or availability
contains no data for exports prior to 1978. Domestic use may be
overstated prior to 1978 by the unknown amount exported.
Fourth, ERS must sometimes estimate principal data crucial to
understanding supply and disappearance due to discontinued
reporting by primary agencies. In 1989, for example, the industry
discontinued reporting pack and stocks of most canned vegetables.
Although the tomato processing industry soon resumed reporting
raw-equivalent stocks, ERS estimates changes in canned stocks for
such crops as sweet corn, green beans, and green peas. If
stock changes in the supply and disappearance of these canned
vegetables were eliminated, year-to-year variations would likely
become wider and more unrealistic.
It has been crucial to fill in missing 1980s data. Following the
1981 season, NASS ceased to report national production estimates
for a number of vegetables and melons due to budget cuts. National
production data were not reinstated for these items until 1992,
with the exception of asparagus and cucumbers for pickles, which
were both reinstated in 1984.
To continue monitoring as much of the vegetable sector as
possible, ERS generated estimates of national production for those
commodities dropped from the NASS program in 1982. These estimates
were based on data from State Departments of Agriculture (in
cooperation with the NASS State office) that continued to collect
production information for their State. In many cases, the States
that continued to maintain their full vegetable data series in the
1980s accounted for more than half of the U.S. total in 1981. As a
result, returning to NASS-supplied U.S. production estimates in
1992 was a smooth transition and required few statistical
adjustments.
See Amber Waves article Meeting Fruit and Vegetables Dietary
Recommendations Will Impact Agriculture.
Also see Amber Waves article "Behind the Data" Estimating Per Capita Domestic Use of Head
Lettuce.
Potatoes and Sweet
Potatoes
Supply and disappearance data are available for fresh and
processed potatoes and for all sweet potatoes. NASS provides survey
data on production and frozen stocks, and the Census Bureau
provides trade data. ERS estimates disappearance of potatoes and
sweet potatoes based entirely on production and net trade because
data on stocks are not available, except for frozen potatoes.
Utilized production data have been available since 1959 for
fresh-market potatoes and potatoes destined for key potato
products. ERS has published potato supply and disappearance data
since 1960, including the farm-weight equivalent of fresh, frozen,
canned, chip, and dehydrated potatoes. ERS estimates domestic use
of each of these products by adding corresponding imports to, and
subtracting exports from, NASS estimates of utilized production.
Only in the annual frozen potato supply and use table does ERS add
the difference between beginning and ending stocks (derived from
the NASS Cold Storage report) to utilized production.
Disappearance estimates for sweet potatoes are available on a
farm-weight basis. Domestic use or availability is calculated from
production after adding imports and subtracting exports, as well as
subtracting estimates of seed and feed use, shrinkage, and loss.
Stocks of canned sweet potatoes are directly accounted for through
1989, after which the industry discontinued reporting canned
vegetable stocks because of canner consolidation (there were too
few firms to allow data to be published). Seed use is estimated by
ERS as acres planted (for the coming year) multiplied by an average
seeding rate per acre. After use data were discontinued in 1984,
feed use, shrinkage, and loss estimates have been assumed to be 5
percent of production. Per capita use of both potatoes and sweet
potatoes is calculated as total annual domestic disappearance or
availability divided by total U.S. population (including Armed
Forces overseas) on July 1 as reported by the Census Bureau.
Fruit and Tree Nuts
ERS compiles and publishes supply and disappearance tables for a
broad range of commercially produced fruit and tree nuts.
Both total and per capita domestic food disappearance, or food
availability, estimate the amount of food available for domestic
consumption. These estimates do not represent the actual amount of
a specific commodity or product consumed; however, they may be used
to make indications about demand trends. Other historical data
presented in each of the supply and disappearance tables such as
production, stocks (where applicable and available), imports, and
exports provide a basis for market analysis of a specific fruit or
tree nut industry. Often supply and disappearance tables and/or
food availability estimates for specific fruit or tree nuts are
presented in the Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook published five times a
year. Annual publication of most of these supply and disappearance
tables is through the Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook.
Product Aggregates and Weight Equivalents
Because most fruit commodities have versatile food uses, supply
and disappearance tables for fruit are available for fresh and
major processed products, including canned, dried, juice, frozen,
and wine (for grapes only). All fruit included in the ERS food
availability series have food availability estimates for fresh use
but not all have similar processed uses. Individual commodity
supply and disappearance tables for the major processed products
are based on the major processed product uses of the fruit and on
the availability of reliable and consistent data to support a
supply and disappearance balance sheet. For instance, specific
citrus commodities (oranges, grapefruit, lemons, and limes) in the
ERS food availability series estimate one product--juice--on the
processed side because processed citrus products consist mostly of
juice. Major noncitrus fruit such as apples and grapes, on the
other hand, have food availability estimates for canned, dried,
juice, and frozen. Domestic supplies of most tropical fruit
commodities included in the ERS food availability series are
marketed primarily for fresh use and the lack of data on the
processing sector limits supply and disappearance balance sheets to
fresh only, except for pineapples (which include canned and
juice).
Per capita availability data are presented on a farm-weight
basis for fresh fruit. ERS uses various conversion factors to
present availability of canned, dried, juice, frozen, wine, and
"other" processed fruit on both a product-weight equivalent and a
farm-weight basis. These conversion factors are listed as footnotes
in the supply and disappearance tables for the various processed
fruit products. All availability data on tree nuts for domestic
consumption are presented on a shelled basis.
Data Sources
In developing the commodity supply and disappearance tables,
data on domestic production for fresh and processing use of fruit
and tree nuts are mostly drawn from the Citrus Fruits Summary and
Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary published by NASS. Fruit growing
wild and in noncommercial areas are not estimated, except for wild
(lowbush) blueberries grown in managed lowbush fields in Maine.
Shipment data is used to represent domestic production in the
supply and disappearance balance sheets for raisins and prune
juice. Shipment data for raisins come from the Raisin
Administrative Committee and those for prune juice from the Prune
Marketing Committee. Data on the amount of packed frozen produce
had historically come from the American Frozen Food Institute until
they recently ceased reporting this data. Various other sources now
provide this data. The Florida Citrus Processors Association
provides stocks of processed citrus fruit juices.
The commodity supply and disappearance tables also use NASS data
on stocks of frozen fruit. Stocks of processed noncitrus fruit
juices are not available from any source. Stocks of tree nuts come
from various commodity trade groups. Fruit and tree nut trade data
come mostly from the Census Bureau, except for data on exports of
almonds (from the Almond Marketing Board), fresh cranberries (from
the Cranberry Marketing Committee), and dried prunes (from the
Prune Marketing Committee).
Data Limitations and Adjustments
Fresh
Reporting of domestic production ceased for mangos in 1998,
limes in 2003, and pineapples in 2007. Imports comprise the vast
majority of available supplies of these tropical fruit in the
United States. The mango and lime industry in Florida did not
recover from the losses from 1992's Hurricane Andrew. Many trees
were not replaced and production continued to decline significantly
in the following years, leading the Florida NASS Field Office to
drop mangos and limes from the annual commodity production survey.
Reporting was also recently discontinued for pineapple production
in Hawaii to avoid disclosure of individual operations as the local
industry now consists of one major corporation.
Canned
Industry tabulation and publication of canned fruit inventories
ceased in 1988. Estimates of the availability of canned fruit for
consumption tend to follow an alternating pattern, increasing one
year and decreasing the next. Without reported data, ERS will have
difficulty making quantity comparisons between categories of
processed products. Certain other valuable fruit data have also
become unavailable for use in the balance sheets. The Pineapple
Growers Association of Hawaii stopped furnishing information on
canned pineapples and juice in August 1982.
Juice
In 2003-04, the Prune Marketing Committee stopped reporting
prune juice and concentrate shipments separately. Now prune juice
shipments are reported under "byproduct for manufacturing," which
includes shipments of other byproducts such as baby food. Because
prune juice shipments have historically made up a major share of
all byproducts for manufacturing, prune juice shipments dictated
trends in manufacturing byproducts. Thus, year-to-year changes in
manufacturing byproducts are being used to estimate current prune
juice shipments.
Frozen
The 2004 Frozen Food Pack Statistics was the final release of
annual pack statistics from the American Frozen Food Institute
(AFFI). ERS has replaced some of these estimates with annual NASS
figures on production for freezing, such as for raspberries,
apples, apricots, tart cherries, peaches, and plums. Specific
conversion factors are applied to the NASS figures to convert
farm-weight production to frozen-weight equivalents. In the case of
strawberries, frozen pack statistics now come from the Processing
Strawberry Advisory Board of California. Other AFFI pack data
cannot be directly replaced by other data sources, requiring ERS to
extrapolate estimates based on year-to-year rates of change in the
specific commodity's total processed production reported by NASS.
ERS extrapolated estimates for blackberries, blueberries, and
boysenberries. For sweet cherries, the year-to-year rate of change
is based on production for other processed products. With changes
in data sources, adjustments to several of the historical time
series have been incorporated.
Other
For some fruit, quantities used in processing products such as
jam, jelly, vinegar, wine, and juice are very small and are not
listed separately in processing reports. For apples, sweet and tart
cherries, and peaches, production of jam and other minor products
is listed as "other" processing uses, whereas for grapes, it is
listed under production used for juice. Production of these minor
items is excluded from the supply and disappearance table, except
for apples (which has an "other" supply and disappearance table)
and grapes (which is incorporated in the grape juice supply and
disappearance). With grapes being the only fruit having a
significant proportion of production going into the manufacturing
of wine, grapes for wine form a separate processing category apart
from the major categories-canned, dried, juice, and frozen.
However, in this data system, wine estimates in the beverage file
are from the Wine Institute.
In 2004, NASS included fresh sliced production among the
processed product categories for apples. However, a supply and
disappearance balance sheet cannot be created because there is no
data for imports and exports. Presently, fresh sliced apple
production is combined with other processed apple production.
See Amber Waves article Almonds Lead Increase in Tree Nut
Consumption.
Grains
Data on supply and disappearance of grains are organized by
primary use. ERS maintains balance sheets for the major food grains
(wheat and rice) and the major feed grains (corn, barley, oats, and
sorghum). ERS also maintains balance sheets for rye through USDA's
World Agricultural Outlook Board. Food availability data are
presented as grain equivalents. USDA's NASS, the Census Bureau, and
other government agencies provide the data used to construct the
food grain supply and disappearance tables.
Wheat
ERS maintains supply and disappearance data for five major
classes of wheat: hard red winter, soft red winter, hard red
spring, white, and durum. These data are published in the Wheat Outlook and Wheat Yearbook tables and are compiled on a
marketing year basis (June-May). Data on production and stocks are
collected by NASS. Food use of wheat is derived from Census Bureau
data on production of wheat flour; the flour data are adjusted for
imports and exports of wheat products from Census Bureau data. For
more information, see the topic: Wheat: Estimating Wheat
Supply and Use.
Rice
Data on U.S. rice production and stocks by State and class are
reported by NASS. Trade data are reported by the Census Bureau.
Estimates of domestic rice use are derived from several sources.
First, seed use for next year's crop is calculated as expected
planting multiplied by the seeding rate. Seed use is reported as a
separate use category in the rice balance sheet. The rest of
domestic use is reported as a single term--Food, Industrial, and
Residual (FI&R).
The FI&R term is calculated to equate total supply with
total demand for all market years in which NASS released a
survey-based estimate of actual ending stocks. For historic market
years, the FI&R term is calculated to equate the sum of
beginning stocks, imports, and production with the sum of domestic
disappearance, exports, and ending stocks. Domestic disappearance
equals the FI&R term plus seed use. Seed use is calculated by
multiplying the next year's planted area by the per acre average
seeding rate.
Prior to the release of the ending stocks estimate by NASS in
late August (completing the August 1 to July 31 market year), the
FI&R term is forecasted from a statistical model. The
forecasted FIR&R term is based on historic FI&R estimates
and expectations regarding U.S. population growth and ethnic
composition, changes in per capita rice consumption, price
movements, and income levels.
USDA does not report separate estimates for the three components
of the FI&R term. Only the aggregate FI&R term is an
official USDA estimate. USDA does, however, develop internal
estimates for all three FI&R components-food use, industrial
use, and the residual-to assist in forecasting the FI&R term
prior to the release of the ending stocks data by NASS in late
August. After the release of the ending stocks estimate, the
FI&R term is revised to equate total supply and total use in
the U.S. rice balance sheet.
Data from two non-USDA sources are used to support internal USDA
food and industrial use estimates and to justify any revisions.
First, monthly shipments of rice for use in manufacturing beer--the
bulk of industrial use-are reported by the U.S. Treasury Department's Alcohol and Tobacco Tax
Trade Bureau. (In this data system, per capita beer estimates
are from the Beer Institute.) A substantial time lag occurs between
actual shipment of the rice to U.S. brewers and the release of the
data.
Second, data on U.S. milled rice shipments for domestic food
uses (including direct food use, processed foods, and pet food) are
available from an annual survey of U.S. rice mills and repackagers
by the USA Rice Federation. The survey is reported in the
Federation's annual U.S. Rice Domestic Usage Report. Data from the
annual milled rice distribution survey are used to support historic
USDA internal food use estimates and to justify any revisions.
Domestic food use estimates reported in the survey typically do
not match USDA's internal food use estimates due primarily to lack
of survey participation by some U.S. rice mills. There is a
substantial time lag between the end of a market year on July 31
and the release of the milled rice survey data. The survey data are
not directly used in forecasting the FI&R term.
The final component of the FI&R term is the residual,
which--for market years with a NASS-reported ending stocks
estimate--is calculated so that when added to internal USDA food
and industrial use estimates (to yield the FI&R term), total
supply will equal total use. The residual includes unreported
losses in handling, processing, and transporting, as well as
statistical errors in any component of supply and disappearance.
ERS provides annual FI&R estimates and further information on
domestic rice use in its monthly Rice Outlook report and in the Rice Year in Review report.
Other grains
Use of food grains for feed and alcohol production is estimated
as the residual component of the balance sheet and thus is subject
to errors in other balance sheet components. ERS compiles supply
and disappearance balance sheet tables quarterly for corn, sorghum,
barley, and oats. In 2007-08, livestock feed and residual accounted
for about 57 percent of the total domestic use of these four feed
grains and for 46 percent of total use. NASS publishes estimates of
feed grain production in its monthly Crop Production reports. Stock estimates are
included in its quarterly stock reports.
Feed grains are processed into a number of food and nonfood
products. Corn, for example, is processed into many food and
nonfood products, often in the same manufacturing process. Some
products, like cornstarch, are used by both food and nonfood
industries in further manufacturing. ERS estimates food and
industrial use from census data and other sources. The nonfood use
of feed grains includes quantities for processing into beverages
and industrial alcohols, industrial starches, and for seed and
feed. About 83 percent of the starch production is purchased for
industrial uses.
Use of oats and barley for food is derived from Census Bureau
reports on production of final products, and industry estimates
augment these reports. Feed grains and rice used for alcoholic
beverages are estimated from U.S. Department of Treasury data.
Per capita disappearance data for grain products are reported
for several levels in the manufacturing process. In the balance
sheets, food use is presented on a grain-equivalent basis. These
are inexact estimates of food available for consumption. Wheat
flour and rice data are measured at the point of milling and
include food use in all forms, whether purchased directly or
consumed as bread, cereal, or other processed products.
Data on the production of some processed grain products are
available from the Census of Manufacturers. To derive estimates of
the food available for consumption, ERS adjusts the production
figures to account for imports and exports. Products estimated in
this manner include corn flour and meal, and hominy. The data are
interpolated between 5-year census intervals. In the ERS per capita
availability data, grain products include wheat flour, rye flour,
rice, barley products, and corn products.
See Amber Waves articles Will 2005 Be the Year of the Whole Grain? and
Americans' Whole-Grain Consumption Below
Guidelines.
Also see Amber Waves article Consumer Preferences Change Wheat Flour
Use.
Added Sugar and Sweeteners
Since 1941, ERS has estimated annual U.S. total and per capita
availability of caloric sweeteners. The data series comprises
dry-weight availability estimates of refined cane and beet sugar,
corn sweeteners, honey, and edible syrups.
The estimates are based on deliveries of sweeteners by
processors, refiners, and importers to U.S. food and beverage
manufacturers, institutional users, wholesalers, and retailers.
Food and beverage manufacturers use the sweeteners in processed
products ranging from candy and soft drinks, catsup, yogurt, peanut
butter, and boxed rice mixes. Food wholesalers and retailers
distribute refined sugar, honey, maple syrup, and molasses for
individual and household use.
ERS relies on estimates of refined cane and beet sugar
deliveries published by USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) in Sweetener Market Data. These estimates include
sugar refined from domestic and imported raw sugar as well as
refined sugar imports. As required by law, all sugar beet
processors and sugarcane refiners in the United States and Puerto
Rico provide FSA with monthly reports on deliveries of refined
sugar. USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service provides FSA with
estimates of refined sugar imports.
ERS estimates deliveries of corn sweeteners (high-fructose corn
syrup, glucose, and dextrose) for domestic food and beverage uses
(excluding nonfood uses), using information from industry contacts,
consulting firms, and Census Bureau import data.
ERS divides total deliveries of various sweeteners by total U.S.
population to estimate per capita deliveries. Estimates of per
capita delivery help determine whether Americans, on average, are
consuming more or less added sugars over time.
See Amber Waves article High-Fructose Corn Syrup Usage May be Leveling
Off.
Also see Amber Waves article (Behind the Data) Estimating Consumption of Caloric
Sweeteners.
Coffee, Tea, and Cocoa
Except for small quantities of coffee grown in Hawaii, the
United States does not commercially grow coffee, tea, or cocoa.
Thus, imports supply virtually all U.S. needs for these tropical
products. Since stocks data for coffee, tea, and cocoa are no
longer available, supply and disappearance tables for these items
include only net changes in stock levels rather than estimated
beginning and ending stock levels as previously shown. The net
change in stocks is estimated as a residual.
ERS estimates coffee supply by adding Hawaiian production and
U.S. imports. Food availability, as a proxy for consumption, is
estimated by adding domestic roastings and net imports of roasted
and instant coffee. The balance sheet is reported on a green bean
weight basis. Net imports of roasted coffee are converted at 1.19
pounds of green beans for 1 pound of roasted coffee. Instant coffee
is converted at 2.5 pounds of green beans for 1 pound of instant
coffee. Larger conversion factors were used in earlier years when
the processing of instant coffee was less efficient. Per capita
availability data are published on a green bean weight and retail
weight basis. Retail weight is the roasted or instant weight as
sold in retail stores.
Per capita availability data for all tea is on a leaf-equivalent
basis. It takes about 2.5 pounds of tea leaves to make 1 pound of
instant soluble tea. The supply of tea, which is based on U.S.
imports, includes all forms of black tea, tea bags, instant tea,
and tea mixes. Herbal teas are excluded. Disappearance is derived
from the difference between imports and exports because there are
no stock data for tea. This measure tends to fluctuate more than
tea consumption would be expected to fluctuate because imports tend
to be erratic. Therefore, ERS estimates tea availability by
subtracting exports from imports and assuming that disappearance
for each year is equivalent to a 3-year moving average of imports
minus exports.
ERS estimates supply and disappearance of cocoa (bean
equivalent), using import data for product forms such as beans,
chocolate liquor, cocoa butter, cocoa powder, and sweetened
products. It is assumed that 1 pound of unsweetened chocolate is
obtained from 1.25 pounds of cocoa beans. Chocolate liquor contains
about 53 percent cocoa butter (fat) and 47 percent cocoa powder
(nonfat solids). Cocoa powder is converted to a bean equivalent,
using a factor of 1.18, and cocoa butter, using a factor of
1.33.
Cocoa bean availability is estimated as the U.S. annual cocoa
bean grind, plus net imports of semi-processed products
(unsweetened chocolate, cocoa powder, cocoa butter) and consumer
products. Per capita cocoa availability is published for both a
whole-bean and chocolate liquor basis, which is 80 percent of the
weight of the beans. Retail weight is the weight of the chocolate
liquor.
See Amber Waves article Coffee Consumption Over the Last Century.
Miscellaneous
Beverages
All beverage data are presented in gallons per capita. ERS
converts fluid milk and juice data from pounds to gallons, using
factors from ERS's Weights, Measures, and Conversion Factors for
Agricultural Commodities and Their Products. Coffee is
converted to fluid equivalents on the basis of 60 6-oz. cups per
pound of regular roasted coffee and 187.5 6-oz. cups per pound of
instant coffee. ERS assumes a conversion rate of 200 6-oz. cups per
pound of tea leaf equivalent.
Per capita data on distilled liquor, wine, and beer are obtained
from the Distilled
Spirits Council of the United States, the Beer Institute, and the Wine Institute.
Data for carbonated soft drinks (1947-2003) are from the Census
of Manufactures, replacing data previously provided by the Beverage
Marketing Corporation of New York. At their request, ERS has
removed the Beverage Marketing Corporation's data series on
carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, fruit drinks, and vegetable
juices from the website and thus no longer provides this data in
the Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.
Spices and Herbs
Most U.S. supplies of herbs and spices are derived from net
imports (imports less exports) of over 20 spices plus a
miscellaneous group, as reported by the Census Bureau. The
remaining supply comes from the domestic production of mustard seed
and dried chile peppers. Small amounts of domestic production of
other spices are not included in the total. ERS assumes that all
annual production is consumed the following year, with no allowance
for changes in stocks of imported spices because there are no
estimates of stocks.
Sources
Written by ERS commodity analysts (Mark Ash, Allen Baker, Don
Blayney, Nathan Childs, Erik Dohlman, Steve Haley, David Harvey,
Andy Jerardo, Keithly Jones, Gary Lucier, Jim Miller, Ken Nelson,
Agnes Perez, Susan Pollack, Fawzi Taha, and Gary Vocke) and by
Steve Koplin from NMFS for seafood. Parts of this documentation are
adapted from the 1989 edition of Major Statistical Series of
the U.S. Department of Agriculture: Consumption and Use of
Agricultural Products.
For more information, see Readings, FAQs, and Glossary.
Download Excel spreadsheets of the Food
Availability data and Loss-Adjusted
Food Availability data.