Value of Corn Production Expected to Reach All-Time High in 2013
The value of feed grain and oil crop production--which reflects cash receipts, home consumption, and the annual value of inventory change--is expected to rise in 2013 as large anticipated production increases more than offset expected price declines. See tables on U.S. farm sector crop cash receipts and value of production and U.S. annual average price for selected crops and livestock . This forecast assumes a return to trend in crop yields and production following drought-induced production declines in 2012.
For corn, a large anticipated increase over 2012 production levels, coupled with high prices, is expected to result in a record-setting value of U.S. corn production ($81.7 billion) in 2013 as U.S. farmers recover from the drought. Corn inventory is forecast to grow significantly in 2013 as well. See table on quantity and value of annual inventory change for selected crops and livestock . Increases in value of production are also expected for the other major feed crops, especially hay. The value of U.S. soybean production is expected to increase in 2013, but quantity sold during the year is expected to decline, with more production expected to go into 2013 end-of-year inventories. Given a large expected decline in the annual average price of soybeans, and an increase in inventories, cash receipts for 2013 are expected to decline just over 10 percent.
An increase in the annual price for wheat is expected in 2013, but an anticipated decrease in the quantity of 2013 wheat sold and a decline in the value of annual end-of-year wheat inventories are expected to reduce cash receipts (down 2 percent) and value of production (down 4 percent) for wheat in 2013. The quantity of rice sold in 2013 is expected to decline, but rice receipts and value of production are expected to increase as the farm price of rice increases.
Cotton (lint and seed) receipts and value of production are forecast to continue to decline 24 and 28 percent, respectively, in 2013. The annual cotton lint price is forecast to decline for the second year in a row. Forecasts are for declines in cottonseed price and quantity sold.
The value of potato production is expected to decline $226.2 million (5.6 percent) in 2013, as declines in both quantity sold and end-of-year stocks more than offset a predicted increase in price. Despite a predicted increase in dry bean receipts in 2013, the value of dry bean production is forecast to decline $237.6 million (18.4 percent), reflecting a negative change in the value of inventories. The forecast increase for cash receipts for other vegetables in 2013 reflects higher expected prices and an increase in quantity sold of fresh vegetables. A decline in the fruit and tree nut price index is anticipated for 2013. Large expected declines in quantities sold for avocados, sweet cherries, and almonds contribute to an expected decline of 7.2 percent in cash receipts for fruits and tree nuts in 2013. However, large predicted increases in sales of apples and prunes/plums could help offset these declines to some extent.