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Wheat:
Situation and Outlook Yearbook provides a summary
of the market situation and outlook for wheat.
For information on current and previous baseline projections
for wheat, see the market
outlook chapter.
Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices explores the many factors that have contributed to the runup in food commodity prices over the last 2 years.
The U.S. Grain Consumption Landscape: Who Eats Grain, In What Form, Where, and How Much? compares Americans’ consumption of grains with the recommendations in the Government’s 2005 Dietary Guidelines, using data from USDA’s Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, 1994-96 and 1998. Results suggest that consumers who perceive grain consumption as important and read food labels during shopping tend to eat more whole grains than other people.
Indian Wheat and Rice
Sector Policies and the Implications of Reform suggests
that future developments in India’s food grain sector
will be shaped by how policies adapt to the sector’s
new economic environment. Some changes, such as reducing
price supports and the scope of government food grain
operations, would likely cut government costs, benefit
consumers, allow a larger private sector role in the domestic
market, and increase reliance on trade.
Valuing Counter-Cyclical
Payments: Implications for Producer Risk Management and
Program Administration illustrates an improved method
for estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting
for the variability in market price forecast errors. Forecasters
and producers can use the model to calculate the probability
of having to repay advanced counter-cyclical payments.
The Changing Face of the
U.S. Grain System discusses the evolving nature of
U.S. grain handling and marketing, which is increasingly
marked by product differentiation and market segmentation.
More specialty crops now require either some form of segregation
or full-scale identity preservation to keep them separate
from conventional commodities. Market segmentation within
the grain system is driven by the need to preserve market
value or ensure product purity.
Wheat Backgrounder
addresses key domestic and international market and policy
developments that have affected the U.S. wheat sector
in recent years. The report contains information on supply
and demand developments, domestic and trade policy, a
wheat farm profile and financial characteristics, and
addresses issues and opportunities to be considered in
domestic agricultural policy deliberations.
Hard White
Wheat at a Crossroads provides background on the forces
that led to the expansion of hard white wheat (HWW) production,
its milling and baking qualities that make it particularly
suited for certain products such as tortillas and Oriental
noodles, the adaptation of the marketing system to preserve
its identity, and the prospects for HWW's production expansion.
Continuing expansion of HWW production would depend on
the development of new, higher yielding varieties that
are more tolerant to sprout damage and the continuation
of the government incentive program.
Wheat and
Barley Policies in Japan provides a detailed description
and analysis of policies used by Japan to support its
wheat and barley producers. Japan uses tax revenues and
a markup on prices of wheat and barley imported within
a quota to provide large direct payments to producers.
Consumers and taxpayers ultimately pay for this support.
Black
Sea Grain Exports: Will They Be Moderate or Large?
examines the prospects for grain exports (mostly wheat)
by the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe
and the Newly Independent States that export through the
Black Sea, the largest being Russia and Ukraine. If productivity
growth in the region is high, annual grain exports by
Black Sea countries could rise to 30-40 million metric
tons.
China's Wheat
Economy: Current Trends and Prospects for Imports
provides an overview of wheat production and consumption
trends in China, including factors that contributed to
slumping imports in recent years. It projects that China
will regain its status as a net wheat importer, with imports
rising sharply in the next year or two (2005-06), but
falling back to modest levels after that.
Mycotoxin
Hazards and Regulations: Impacts on Food and Animal Feed
Crop Trade
addresses the difficulty of balancing food safety concerns
and efforts to limit the economic costs of trade disruptions.
This chapter reviews food safety risks posed by mycotoxin-contaminated
grains and demonstrates that a lack of international consensus
on mycotoxin standards has important trade implications.
The 2002 Farm Act: Provisions
and Implications for Commodity Markets provides an
initial assessment of the legislation's effects on agricultural
production, commodity markets, and net farm income over
the next 10 years. Results indicate that commodity market
impacts are fairly small. Net farm income is projected
higher than under a continuation of the 1996 Farm Act,
largely reflecting an increase in government payments.
U.S.
Wheat Output and Exports to Decline in 2002/03
evaluates the prospects for the lowest U.S. wheat exports
in more than 30 years. Smaller U.S. supplies, shrinking
global imports, and intense competition are combining
to reduce U.S. exports.
Characteristics and
Production Costs of U.S. Wheat Farms reports that
the average cost of producing a bushel ofwheat in 1998
was $3.97, ranging from about $1.25 to more than $6 per
bushel. Regional ifferences in production practices and
growing conditions were major influences on production
costs and yields among wheat producers.
Economic Analysis of Ending
the Issuance of Karnal Bunt Phytosanitary Wheat Export
Certificates
indicates that ending this certification program would
jeopardize U.S. exports to some countries. The loss of
export markets for U.S. wheat producers would be only
partially offset by increased domestic feeding of lower
priced wheat. Reduced wheat production and lower wheat
prices would reduce the total value of the wheat produced
in the country, as well as net income in U.S. agriculture.
How Wheat Production
Costs Vary
draws on the most recent Agricultural Resource Management
Survey (ARMS) to show that the cost of producing wheat
varied widely among growers, due primarily to differences
in production practices and yields.
International Wheat
Breeding and Future Wheat Productivity in Developing Countries
explains the slowing of wheat yield growth in developing
countries and examines future challenges for wheat breeding
in these countries.
Wheat: Background
and Issues for Farm Legislation addresses considerations
in the 2002 farm bill debate, ncluding market conditions,
policy proposals, trade agreements, and the interactions
between policy and markets.
Forces
Shaping the U.S. Wheat Economy
examines the U.S. wheat sector as it enters the new century,
with U.S. wheat area trending downward and U.S. share
of the world wheat market eroding. During the past quarter
century, U.S. per capita consumption of wheat as food
products shows a strong upward trend, benefitting the
U.S. wheat sector.
U.S.
Wheat Supplies To Drop in 2001/02
reports that, despite a strong domestic market for wheat
products, U.S. wheat harvested area continues to drop,
more than a third below its 1981 peak. Low returns relative
to other crops, combined with planting flexibility under
current government programs, have led farmers to opt for
competing crops.
Analysis of the U.S. Commodity
Loan Program with Marketing Loan Provisions assesses
the impacts of marketing loans on production, use, and
prices, and illustrates that the program has enabled farmers
to attain, on average, per-unit revenues that exceed commodity
loan rates.
The New Agricultural
Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the U.S.
Wheat Sector
focuses on further reducing traiffs and improving market
access, eliminating and prohibiting the use of export
subsidies, nd placing further limitations on trade-distorting
domestic support programs.
Price Determination for
Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government
Programs finds a number of factors affect U.S. farm-level
prices for corn and wheat, indicated by models based on
supply and demand onditions as well as government policies.
Providing
Timely Farm Price Forecasts: Using Wheat Futures Prices
to Forecast U.S. Wheat Prices at the Farm Level
includes technical analyses of forecasting wheat prices.
Wheat and
the Conservation Reserve Program: Past, Present, and Future
contains background on the impact of USDA's land retirement
program on wheat production, particularly in the Plains.
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