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Although the American diet is becoming more healthful, eating habits
still fall short of Federal dietary advice provided in the Food
Guide Pyramid. If Americans followed the Food Guide Pyramid recommendations,
the resulting changes in consumer demand would lead to changes in
the type and quantity of food produced and how and where it is produced
(see the reports A Dietary Assessment
of the U.S. Food Supply and Moving Toward the Food Guide Pyramid: Implications for U.S. Agriculture).
Closing the gap between average U.S. diets and Pyramid serving
recommendations means consumers will have to change their eating
habits significantly. For example, while consumption of fruits and
vegetables reached record highs in 1997, consumption of dark-green
leafy vegetables remained well below Federal dietary benchmarks.
At the same time, consumption of added sugars hit an all-time high,
at more than two and a half times the Pyramid upper limit.
Bringing diets in line with Pyramid recommendations would mean
adjustments in U.S. agricultural production, trade, nonfood uses,
and prices. If the average American were to fully adopt the Pyramid
recommendations, U.S. crop acreage devoted to food and feed would
need to increase by nearly 6 million acres over the average levels
of the early 1990's. This adjustment is relatively small in relation
to total planted area, about 2 percent of average 1991-95 agricultural
cropland, and well below the almost 22 million acres of cropland
idled under Federal annual acreage planting constraints during 1991-95.
However, this modest adjustment masks larger changes in production
and prices expected for individual commodity sectors, notably caloric
sweeteners, fats and oils, fruits, and certain vegetables (dark-green
leafy and deep-yellow vegetables, dry beans, peas, and lentils),
where the gap between recommended and actual consumption is large.
Interactions among different agricultural commodity markets may
moderate the size of the estimated adjustments. Consumers would
substitute some products for others, depending on prices. Farmers
base planting decisions on expected prices and can alternate among
crops, with some limitations, on the same piece of land. Producers
and processors alter the supply of final foods, depending on relative
prices and changing technologies, for products produced jointly
from the same raw agricultural commodity. For example, higher demand
for low-fat dairy products can be met by producing less ice cream,
butter, and cheese and producing more low-fat yogurt and skim milk.
Because of the size and complexity of the U.S. food system, an almost
infinite combination of foods, production methods, end uses, and
trade adjustments could work together to move diets toward the Food
Guide Pyramid recommendations. Food consumption is just one of several
components of demand for agricultural products, along with animal
feed, exports, and nonfood or industrial uses. Shifts in food demand
due to dietary change would likely result in offsetting shifts in
production, trade, and nonfood uses, which would tend to moderate
the effects on food prices and farm income in the long run.
Caloric Sweeteners
A 60-percent reduction in average consumption of caloric sweeteners
would be needed to reach Pyramid recommendations, a figure that
contrasts sharply with the 9-percent per person increase of 1991-95.
Such an unprecedented reduction would translate into a drop in domestic
sugar output of 4.8 million tons and in planted area of 0.7 million
acres of sugarcane and 1.1 million acres of sugar beets. Sugar imports
would have to be cut by 1.3 million tons from the 2.1 million annual
average of 1991-95. Production is highly concentrated in Florida
and Louisiana for sugarcane and in the Red River Valley of North
Dakota and Minnesota and in parts of Idaho, Michigan, and California
for sugar beets. Producers in these regions would likely shift production
to fruits and vegetables or field crops.
Fats and Oils
U.S. consumption of added fats and oils, at 59 grams a day, is among
the highest in the world. Total fat intake would have to be cut
36 percent to meet the suggested daily limit, which contrasts sharply
with the 0.5-percent increase between 1991 and 1995. These reductions
would affect the soybean sector the most because soybeans dominate
the market for added fats and oils. To match the reduced demand,
soyoil production would need to decline by 2 million tons, which
would translate into 20 percent less acreage devoted to soybeans,
or a 12-million-acre decline. However, market forces would limit
the reduction to less than 3 million acres, as exports, feed, and
industrial uses would offset the decline in domestic oil demand.
Fruits
Fruit consumption would more than double if the average U.S. diet
were to meet Food Guide Pyramid recommendations. Consumption of
citrus, melons, and berries would need to rise by 150 percent, and
consumption of other fruits would need to rise 114 percent. Meeting
the need with domestic production alone would imply a 3- to 4-million-acre
increase in planted area. However, imports would likely help take
up the slack, as land, labor, and climatic constraints limit expansion
of domestic fruit production.
Vegetables
Meeting Food Guide Pyramid recommendations would require some change
in the quantities and types of vegetables consumed. Although consumption
of vegetables as a group would have to rise only 10 percent, average
diets would have to include more than four times as many dark-green
leafy and deep-yellow vegetables; three times as many dry beans,
peas, and lentils; and fewer servings of starchy vegetables (mostly
potatoes). A net increase of 2 to 3 million acres of vegetables
would be needed to produce enough vegetables to meet the increased
demand, with 1.4 million acres devoted to additional dark-green
leafy and deep-yellow vegetables. Some of the increase in domestic
supplies could be reached by switching the types or mix of crops
planted.
Milk and Meat Products
Consumption of dairy products needs to grow by 22 percent and that
of meats by 5 percent for average diets to meet Food Guide Pyramid
recommendations. More importantly, meeting the recommendations would
require adjustments in the mix of products in these food groups,
notably a reduction in fat. Increased demand for low-fat products
would raise retail prices for those products, while decreased demand
for higher fat products would result in these products moving to
industrial uses and exports. Such a shift would have a measurable
effect on the grain sector.
Grains
Average consumption of grain foods as a group are close to Food
Guide Pyramid recommendations, so adjustments in the food grain
sector are likely to be relatively small compared with adjustments
for feed grain producers. Changes in feed grain demand will be closely
linked to changes in the corn sweetener, oilseed, meat, and poultry
industries. A net increase of 3.5 million acres of feed grains would
likely be needed to respond to these adjustments with a 3.5-million-acre
decline in corn used for corn sweeteners offset by a 7.0-million-acre
increase in shifts in feed grain production for the livestock and
dairy sectors.
A change in the mix of grain foods consumed to include more whole-grain
and fewer refined-grain foods is likely to increase the share of
food grains, like wheat and rice, consumed in their whole-grain
form while decreasing production of refined products like white
rice and white flour. Such changes would occur largely at the milling,
rather than production, level. However, because more whole-grain
product can be extracted per pound of grain (1 pound of wheat, for
example, yields 0.98 pound of whole-wheat flour compared with 0.74
pound of white flour) increased consumption of whole-grain foods
could lower food grain demand. With over 30 million acres of cropland
used to produce food grains nationwide, even a decline of 1 to 2
percent in food grain demand could reduce total grain area by 0.3
to 0.6 million acres.
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