USDA Economic Research Service - What's New

Season-Average Price Forecasts

Thu, 9 Feb 2012 19:30:00 GMT

A futures-price forecasting model is used to provide season-average price forecasts for corn, soybeans, and wheat. In addition to the monthly forecasts for prices received, the model computes a forecast for the counter-cyclical payment rate for each commodity. The 2002 Farm Act provides for counter-cyclical payments when prices are below specified levels.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Thu, 9 Feb 2012 12:30:00 GMT

Issued monthly, WASDE provides the most current USDA forecasts of U.S. and world supply-use balances for major grains, soybeans and products, and cotton, and U.S. supply and use data for sugar and livestock products.

China�s Volatile Pork Industry

Tue, 7 Feb 2012 14:00:00 GMT

China�s pork prices, hog inventories, and pork imports tend to rise and fall in a cyclical pattern in response to various factors that influence supply and demand.

Changing Farm Structure and the Distribution of Farm Payments and Federal Crop Insurance

Mon, 6 Feb 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The distribution of commodity-related payments and Federal crop insurance indemnities to U.S. farmers has shifted to larger farms as more and more U.S. agricultural production is done on those farms. Since the operators of larger farms tend to have higher household incomes than other farm operators, commodity-related program payments and Federal crop insurance indemnities also have shifted to higher income households. By 2009, half of commodity-related program payments went to farms operated by households earning over $89,540, a quarter went to farms operated by households with incomes greater than $209,000 and 10 percent went to farms operated by households with incomes of at least $425,000. Current income eligibility caps and payment limits affect few farm households because most of them have incomes below the income caps or receive payments less than the payment limits. Based on 2009 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data, recent proposals to lower those income caps and payment limits would still affect only a small percentage of U.S. farm households, because their incomes would still fall below the proposed income caps and payment limits. Total Government program payments to U.S. farms were $12.3 billion in 2009. Total Federal crop insurance indemnity payments were $5.2 billion in 2009.

Agricultural Productivity in the United States

Fri, 3 Feb 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Increased productivity is the main contributor to growth in U.S. agriculture. This data set provides estimates of productivity growth in the U.S. farm sector over the period 1948-2009, and estimates of the growth and relative levels of productivity across the individual States for the 1960-2004 period.

Major Land Uses

Fri, 3 Feb 2012 15:00:00 GMT

The Major Land Uses (MLU) series is the longest running, most comprehensive accounting of all major uses of public and private land in the United States. The series was started in 1945, and has since been published about every 5 years, coinciding with the Census of Agriculture. The United States has a total land area of nearly 2.3 billion acres. In 2007, the major land uses were forestland at 671 million acres (30 percent); grassland pasture and rangeland at 614 million (27 percent); cropland at 408 million (18 percent); special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas) at 313 million acres (14 percent); miscellaneous uses (like tundra or swamps) at 197 million acres (9 percent); and urban land at 61 million acres (3 percent). The annual cropland portion of the series has been consistently maintained since 1910 and has recently been updated through 2011.

Monthly Milk Cost of Production

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 18:00:00 GMT

National monthly milk cost-of-production estimates are released during the last week of each month. Annual milk cost-of-production estimates are available by State and by size of operation starting in 2005.

Food Price Outlook, 2012

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:00:00 GMT

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food is probably the most widely used indicator of changes in retail food prices. ERS regularly updates food price forecasts for the short-term period. The CPI for all food is projected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2012. ERS�s food price outlook is available for December 2011.

Agricultural Outlook Statistical Indicators

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 18:00:00 GMT

Statistical Indicators previously published in Agricultural Outlook addressing a broad spectrum of agriculture-related issues. Includes commodity and food prices, general economic indicators, government program expenditures, farm income estimates, and trade and export statistics.

Wheat Data

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 17:00:00 GMT

This data product contains statistics on wheat - including the five classes of wheat: hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red winter, white, and durum - and rye. Includes data published in the monthly Wheat Outlook and previously annual Wheat Yearbook. Data are monthly, quarterly, and/or annual depending upon the data series.

Feed Grains Database

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:00:00 GMT

Interactive database that contains statistics on four feed grains (corn, grain sorghum, barley, and oats), foreign coarse grains (feed grains plus rye, millet, and mixed grains), hay, and related items. Tables previously published annually in the Feed Yearbook are available and updated continuously as data are added to the database. Custom queries also allow users to retrieve historical data.

Meat Price Spreads

Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:00:00 GMT

This data set provides monthly average price values, and the differences among those values, at the farm, wholesale, and retail stages of the production and marketing chain for selected cuts of beef, pork, and broilers. In addition, retail prices are provided for beef and pork cuts, turkey, whole chickens, eggs, and dairy products.

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Timely livestock, dairy, and poultry information, focusing on current and forecast production, price, and trade statistics for each of the sectors.

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 20:00:00 GMT

Examines world and U.S. production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for beet and cane sugar, and high fructose corn syrup.

State Fact Sheets

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 18:00:00 GMT

The ERS State Fact Sheets provide information on population, income, poverty, food security, education, employment, federal funds, organic agriculture, farm characteristics, farm financial indicators, top commodities, and exports, for each State in the United States. Links to county-level data are included when available. The State Fact Sheets have been updated with 2006-10 education data from the American Community Survey.

U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:30:00 GMT

Provides a monthly update of year-to-date quantities and values of U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Also provides data on leading destination countries for exports and import source countries.

Feed Outlook

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:00:00 GMT

Examines supply, use, prices, and trade for feed grains, including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Focuses on corn; also contains information on sorghum, barley, oats, and hay.

Aquaculture Data

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Aquaculture is the production of aquatic animals and plants under controlled conditions for all or part of their lifecycle. This data product provides statistics on domestically grown catfish and trout and U.S. imports and exports of fish and shellfish that may be products of aquaculture, such as salmon, shrimp, and oysters.

Livestock and Meat Trade Data

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 14:00:00 GMT

The Livestock and Meat Trade Data Set contains monthly and annual data for imports and exports of live cattle, hogs, sheep, and goats, as well as beef and veal, pork, lamb and mutton, chicken meat, turkey meat, and eggs. The tables report physical quantities, not dollar values or unit prices. Data on beef and veal, pork, and lamb and mutton are on a carcass-weight-equivalent basis. Breakdowns by country are included.

Wheat Outlook

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:00:00 GMT

Examines supply, use, prices, and trade for wheat, including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Contains data and information on U.S. wheat by class.

Oil Crops Outlook

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 20:00:00 GMT

Examines supply, use, prices, and trade for oil crops (primarily soybeans and products), including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Includes information on cottonseed, peanuts, sunflowerseed, tropical oils, corn oil, and animal fats.

Rice Outlook

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 20:00:00 GMT

Examines supply, use, prices, and trade for rice, including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Contains information on U.S. rough, milled, and long-, medium-, and short-grain rice.

Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 14:00:00 GMT

This data product announces USDA's monthly release of calendar year, fiscal year, year-to-date, and monthly value of U.S. agricultural exports, imports, and trade balance.

Season-Average Price Forecasts

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 19:45:00 GMT

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:30:00 GMT

DatelinERS Newsletter

Mon, 9 Jan 2012 18:00:00 GMT

The DatelinERS newsletter offers concise summaries of ERS reports and events with links to areas within our website. You can find it in our newsroom at www.ers.usda.gov/News/.

Fertilizer Use and Price

Thu, 5 Jan 2012 20:00:00 GMT

This product brings together 1960-2010 data on fertilizer consumption in the United States by plant nutrient and major selected product, as well as consumption of mixed fertilizers, secondary nutrients, and micronutrients. Share of crop area receiving fertilizer and fertilizer use per receiving acre, by nutrient, are presented for the major producing States for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Additional data include fertilizer farm prices and indices of wholesale fertilizer price. Fertilizer price data are through 2011.

A Quarterly Econometric Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the U.S. Dairy Industry

Thu, 5 Jan 2012 13:00:00 GMT

This research evaluates the econometric approaches employed by USDA�s Economic Research Service (ERS) to contribute to the dairy sector forecasts published in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. To generate the estimates, a quarterly model of the U.S. dairy industry is specified using data for fourth-quarter 1998 (Q4/1998) to first quarter 2009 (Q1/2009), and it is estimated and validated employing data for Q2/2009 to Q1/2010. Different forecasts are generated using a variety of single equation and system methods, and which are then evaluated in terms of forecast precision or predicting turning points in the data. Different approaches, however, more effectively forecast different variables. Vector autoregression with exogenous variables outperforms structural regression models when forecasting prices, but single and system estimations of structural models are superior to time series models when forecasting some items in farm supply and commodity balance sheets.

Long-Term Growth Prospects for Wheat Production in Afghanistan

Wed, 4 Jan 2012 15:00:00 GMT

Given expected increases in demand, imports are likely to grow in coming years even if Afghanistan�s rapid post-1990 production growth is sustained, suggesting growing dependence on supplies from Pakistan and other countries.

Research Investments and Market Structure in the Food Processing, Agricultural Input, and Biofuel Industries Worldwide

Fri, 30 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Meeting growing global demand for food, fiber, and biofuel requires robust investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) from both public and private sectors. This study examines global R&D spending by private industry in seven agricultural input sectors, food manufacturing, and biofuel and describes the changing structure of these industries. In 2007 (the latest year for which comprehensive estimates are available), the private sector spent $19.7 billion on food and agricultural research (56 percent in food manufacturing and 44 percent in agricultural input sectors) and accounted for about half of total public and private spending on food and agricultural R&D in high-income countries. In R&D related to biofuel, annual private-sector investments are estimated to have reached $1.47 billion worldwide by 2009. Incentives to invest in R&D are influenced by market structure and other factors. Agricultural input industries have undergone significant structural change over the past two decades, with industry concentration on the rise. A relatively small number of large, multinational firms with global R&D and marketing networks account for most R&D in each input industry. Rising market concentration has not generally been associated with increased R&D investment as a percentage of industry sales.

Research Investments and Market Structure in the Food Processing, Agricultural Input, and Biofuel Industries Worldwide: Executive Summary

Fri, 30 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Meeting growing global demand for food, fiber, and biofuel requires robust investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) from both public and private sectors. This report highlights the major findings of a study examining global R&D spending by private industry in seven agricultural input sectors, food manufacturing, and biofuel and describes the changing structure of these industries. For the full report, see Research Investments and Market Structure in the Food Processing, Agricultural Input, and Biofuel Industries Worldwide, ERR-130. In 2007 (the latest year for which comprehensive estimates are available), the private sector spent $19.7 billion on food and agricultural research (56 percent in food manufacturing and 44 percent in agricultural input sectors) and accounted for about half of total public and private spending on food and agricultural R&D in high-income countries. In R&D related to biofuel, annual private-sector investments are estimated to have reached $1.47 billion worldwide by 2009. Incentives to invest in R&D are influenced by market structure and other factors. Agricultural input industries have undergone significant structural change over the past two decades, with industry concentration on the rise. A relatively small number of large, multinational firms with global R&D and marketing networks account for most R&D in each input industry. Rising market concentration has not generally been associated with increased R&D investment as a percentage of industry sales.

The Relationship Between National Brand and Private Label Food Products: Prices, Promotions, Recessions,and Recoveries

Thu, 29 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Over the past two decades, private label food products have grown steadily in sales and often directly compete for market share with national brands. This competition lowers prices and increases product choices for consumers. This report analyzes the relationship between private label and national brand product prices and in-store promotions for two major U.S. grocery store chains during the 2007-2009 recession and the year following the recession (2010). Retailers promote private label products (offer price discounts) strategically in response to national brand pricing promotions to protect private label market share during national brand promotions. However, the extent of the retailer response varies widely across supermarket departments and is also affected by both the density of food stores and the market share of supercenters within a market area. These findings hold true regardless of the state of the economy, although the magnitude of the interaction between national brands and private labels differs in times of recession and recovery.

Monthly Milk Cost of Production

Tue, 27 Dec 2011 14:00:00 GMT

Food Price Outlook, 2012

Fri, 23 Dec 2011 14:00:00 GMT

Feed Grains Database

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Wheat Data

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Major Land Uses

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 16:00:00 GMT

Major Uses of Land in the United States, 2007

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

The United States has a total land area of nearly 2.3 billion acres. In 2007, the major land uses were forestland at 671 million acres (30 percent); grassland pasture and rangeland at 614 million (27 percent); cropland at 408 million (18 percent); special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas) at 313 million acres (14 percent); miscellaneous uses (like tundra or swamps) at 197 million acres (9 percent); and urban land at 61 million acres (3 percent). This report presents findings from the most recent (2007) inventory of U.S. major land uses, drawing on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, public land management and conservation agencies, and other sources. The data are synthesized by State to estimate the use of several broad classes and subclasses of agricultural and nonagricultural land over time. National and regional trends in land use are compared with earlier major land-use estimates.

Meat Price Spreads

Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:00:00 GMT

Vegetables and Melons Outlook

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. vegetables and melons sector (including potatoes, pulses, and mushrooms). Topics include production, consumption, shipments, prices received, trade, and more.

Farm Program Atlas

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 18:00:00 GMT

The Farm Program Atlas is an online interactive mapping tool that displays payment and participation data by county for seven key Federal farm programs. The tool enables users to view maps, see how data vary across counties, and download the data.

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Timely livestock, dairy, and poultry information, focusing on current and forecast production, price, and trade statistics for each of the sectors.

Agricultural Income and Finance Outlook

Wed, 14 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Agricultural Income and Finance Outlook. Provides comprehensive overview of the financial characteristics and performance of the U.S. farm sector and farm businesses, and the financial status of farm households.

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Wed, 14 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Examines world and U.S. production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for beet and cane sugar, and high fructose corn syrup.

Agricultural Outlook Statistical Indicators

Wed, 14 Dec 2011 04:00:00 GMT

Aquaculture Data

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:00:00 GMT

Wheat Outlook

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Examines supply, use, prices, and trade for wheat, including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Contains data and information on U.S. wheat by class.

Feed Outlook

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Cotton and Wool Outlook

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Examines supply, use, prices, and trade for cotton and wool, including supply and demand prospects in major importing and exporting countries. Includes data on raw fibers and textiles.

Oil Crops Outlook

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Rice Outlook

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 20:00:00 GMT

U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 16:00:00 GMT

Provides a monthly update of year-to-date quantities and values of U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Also provides data on leading destination countries for exports and import source countries.

Livestock and Meat Trade Data

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 14:00:00 GMT