|
Supermarket Loss Estimates for Fresh Fruit, Vegetables, Meat, Poultry, and Seafood and Their Use in the ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data
Jean C. Buzby, Hodan Farah Wells, Bruce Axtman, Jana Mickey
Economic Information Bulletin No. (EIB-44) 26 pp, March 2009
ERS maintains the web-based Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data series, an important resource
for estimating trends in the amount of food available for consumption over time. By tracking food
loss—food made inedible by moisture loss, spoilage, and other causes—analysts can estimate how
much food is eaten per person over a given period.
What Is the Issue?
Some of the food-loss assumptions used in the ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data were
seemingly simplistic and may not have reflected current manufacturing, retail, and food preparation
practices. Retail food loss was particularly difficult to estimate. Prior to this study, the per
capita food loss estimates at the retail level were, across the board, 12 percent for every fresh fruit
and vegetable commodity (e.g., fresh strawberries, fresh spinach) and 7 percent for every type of
meat, poultry, and seafood (i.e., fish and shellfish, both farm-raised and wild-caught) covered in
the database. More precise estimates for each fresh commodity are desirable to reflect physical
differences in spoilage rates and other reasons that influence food loss, such as use of innovative
packaging to prolong shelf life. Using new estimates for each commodity could affect ERS calculations
of the amounts of different foods available for consumption.
What Did the Study Find?
This report and the accompanying ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data give analysts, for
the first time, national estimates of the food loss percentage at the supermarket level for each fresh
fruit, vegetable, meat, and poultry commodity in the data set. The average loss rates for 2005-06
for individual fresh fruit, vegetable, meat, and poultry commodities at the supermarket level, as
estimated by the Perishables Group, Inc., varied from 0.6 percent for sweet corn to 63.6 percent
for mustard greens. The study also provided new average estimates for all fish and all shellfish.
When the study incorporated the new loss estimates into the ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability
data series, the impact on per capita estimates varied broadly among commodities within a food
group (e.g., among all fresh fruit). The largest annual impacts, per capita, were for fresh potatoes,
chicken, beef, pork, bananas, and sweet corn—all of which have high shares of food available for
consumption for their respective food groups.
However, as a whole, the new food loss estimates had little impact on average food loss rates for
each food group in the ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data series or on per capita estimates of the quantity of the different food groups available for consumption at the retail level because the newer estimates
were generally close to the earlier loss assumptions. Compared with the earlier ERS per capita food loss estimates of
12 percent for each type of fruit and vegetable and 7 percent for each type of meat, poultry, and seafood covered in
the database, ERS found that annual supermarket losses for 2005 and 2006 averaged 11.4 percent for fresh fruit, 9.7
percent for fresh vegetables, and 4.5 percent for fresh meat, poultry, and seafood. The new estimates would increase
per capita estimates at the retail level in 2005 by 0.7 pounds (0.6 percent) for fresh fruit, 4.2 pounds (2.7 percent) for
fresh vegetables, and 4.8 pounds (2.7 percent) for fresh meat, poultry, and seafood. Dividing these annual changes in
per capita estimates by 365 days results in very small daily per capita changes.
How Was the Study Conducted?
ERS obtained updated food loss estimates at the retail level for individual fresh fruits, vegetables, meat, and poultry
and aggregate estimates for all fish and all shellfish from the Perishables Group, Inc., and applied them to update some
of the assumptions used in constructing ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data to see how they affected per capita
estimates of the food available for consumption. The Perishables Group, Inc., an independent consulting firm, used a
sample of data from six large national and regional supermarket retailers from their proprietary database. The sample
did not include convenience stores, megastores, club stores, and mom-and-pop grocery stores. For each store in the
sample, supplier shipment data for 2005 and 2006 was paired with point-of-sale data to identify food loss percentages
for each covered commodity. For fresh meat, poultry, and seafood, data were supplemented by the Perishables Group
with qualitative information from more than 10 retailers. The study also compared loss estimates for 2005 and 2006
as a validation of methods used.
|
