Agricultural Outlook December 2001

Jeanne McLaughlin, executive editor

Agricultural Outlook No. (287) December 2001

About this magazine

AO is the main source of USDA's farm and food price forecasts. AO emphasizes the short-term outlook for all major areas of the agricultural economy. It also presents long-term analyses of such issues as U.S. agricultural policy, trade forecasts and export-market development, food safety, the environment, and farm financial institutions. Each issue includes 25 pages of data on individual commodities, the general economy, U.S. farm trade, farm income, production expenses, input use, prices received and paid by farmers, per capita food consumption, and related issues. AO is published 10 times per year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Materials may be reprinted without permission. Contents have been approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Release of summary for the January/February 2002 issue: December 19, 2001. Release of complete text-only version: December 20.

In this report ...

Articles are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

Contents, 54 kb

In This Issue, 43 kb

Briefs

• Forecast for Citrus: A Mixed Bag for Growers--First estimates for the 2001/02 citrus crop are more sweet than tart with more oranges, grapefruit, and tangerines available for harvesting but fewer lemons. The estimate indicates a larger U.S. citrus crop than last year but smaller than 2 years ago. Florida, the most prolific citrus producing state, accounts for nearly all the expected increase. Susan Pollack (202) 694-5251, 111 kb.

• Consumers Face Higher Prices For Fresh-Market Grapes--U.S. grape growers are producing a smaller crop in 2001, but consumer demand for high-quality fresh-market grapes is still being met--at slightly steeper prices. USDA forecasts a 16-percent decline in this year's output over the record crop in 2000. Harvests are down in most grape producing states, including lead producer California. This year's forecast would be 4 percent larger than in 1999. Agnes Perez (202) 694-5255, 76 kb.

• Dairy Industry to Encounter Uncertain Climate of Demand in 2002--Recent years have seen strong demand for dairy products; prices were generally robust except when rapid expansion in milk production temporarily overcame demand. But in 2002, softening economic conditions probably will result in less vigorous demand growth for dairy products overall. Milk production is expected to grow by almost 3 percent, more than projected growth in demand, and a price drop seems certain. James Miller (202) 694-5184, 94 kb.

Commodity Spotlight

• Cotton Production Up, Demand Down--Cotton is experiencing greater weakness in world prices than grains and other crops. World cotton prices, down 39 percent from a year earlier as of October 2001, have suffered from slackening demand, coinciding with rebounding world production. The global economy is forecast to rebound in 2002/03 and foreign cotton mill use to expand, spurring demand for cotton fiber around the globe. Leslie Meyer (202) 694-5307, 187 kb.

• Sweet Peppers: Saved by the Bell--Over the past two decades, consumption of sweet bell peppers has been on the rise in the U.S. Given continued strong demand, U.S. growers harvested 12 percent more bell pepper acreage in 2000 than a year earlier. Bell peppers are produced and marketed year-round, with domestic shipments peaking during May and June and import shipments highest during winter months (20 percent of fresh-market demand is satisfied by imports). Gary Lucier (202) 694-5253, 119 kb.

World Agriculture & Trade

• EU Preferential Trading Agreements: Heightened Competition for U.S.--Although the European Union (EU) has pursued global multilateral trade negotiations within the World Trade Organization (WTO) and extends most-favored-nation treatment to the U.S. and other members, it also participates in more nonglobal preferential trading agreements (PTAs) than any other WTO member. Such agreements do not include the U.S. The PTAs disadvantage U.S. exports to EU markets while providing advantages to EU exports in the markets of EU preferred partners. Gene Hasha (202) 694-5193, 133 kb.

Risk Management

• U. S. Crop Insurance: Premiums, Subsidies, & Participation--U.S. crop insurance programs, traditionally limited to yield insurance products, now include a variety of insurance products. Since the early 1980s, the Federal government has subsidized premiums, effectively lowering the cost of crop yield and revenue insurance coverage to producers. Rises in premium subsidies in 2001 and the addition of premium discounts in 1999 and 2000 have increased participation in insurance programs, and producers have moved to higher coverage levels. Robert Dismukes (202) 694-5294, 89 kb.

Announcing...

Agricultural Outlook Forum 2002--Program at a Glance, 137 kb

Emerging changes in international agriculture--new reports on China, Brazil, and Argentina, 147 kb

Statistical Indicators, 176 kb

Entire issue, 787 kb

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Updated date: December 2001