Each year, USDA makes 10-year economic projections for the food and agriculture sector. The projections reflect a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic developments and farm policies, and cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the U.S. farm sector, such as farm income and food prices. One key use of the projections is as a "starting point" from which to analyze the impacts of potential policy changes on U.S. agriculture.
Highlights
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to the supply and demand conditions underlying recent price increases for many farm commodities. In response, global agricultural production increases in 2011, particularly for grains. Production adjustments are made in the livestock sector during the first several years of the projections in response to high grain and soybean meal prices in 2011. Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect a resumption of steady world economic growth following the global recession and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. Thus, after near-term declines from 2011 record levels, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices increase faster than the overall rate of inflation rate in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs. Food prices rise less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector which limit meat price increases.
Historic Reports
The Economic Research Service has the lead role in preparing USDA's Agricultural Projections report. For information on previous long-term projections, see the Current and Previous Baseline Projections page in the ERS Baseline Briefing Room.
Report
