Transition Economies

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) had a bumper crop in 2001, leading to 9.3 million metric tons (mmt) of grain exports from Ukraine, 4 mmt from Kazakstan, and 3.2 mmt from Russia. Russia is also one of the world's largest meat importers. In 2001, Russia was the world's largest poultry importer (1,280 mmt), the second largest pork importer (550 mmt), and the third largest beef and veal importer (675 mmt). ERS research addresses the issues driving crop and livestock production trends in the CIS, and the effect of reforms (or lack thereof) on future agricultural production, consumption, and trade.

Grain Export Potential of Russia and Ukraine

What is the grain export potential that could be realized by implementing further reforms in Russia and Ukraine?

Agricultural Productivity and Efficiency in Russia and Ukraine: Building on a Decade of Reform
Despite ten years of economic reform, productivity of agricultural production continues to lag on many Russian and Ukrainian farms. One of the principal causes of inefficient farm practices in both countries is the failure to complete the institutional reforms that are critical to well functioning markets. Productivity and efficiency in the agricultural sector would improve significantly with the full implementation of such reforms. In such a scenario, Russia and Ukraine could emerge as significant grain exporters in the future.

Could the NIS Region Become a Major Agricultural Exporter?
Western analysts have predicted that reform in the New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union could transform the region from a large grain importer into a major grain exporter. This will depend mainly on whether it can produce grain at a relatively low cost. Current ERS forecasts predict that the NIS region is likely to be a medium-level grain exporter.

Livestock Sectors in the Economies of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

What is the future of the livestock sector in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe?

Livestock Sectors in the Economies of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
The experience of the livestock sectors in five countries of the transition economies—Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, and Romania—is typical of the entire region. All five countries experienced a decline in both animal inventories and meat output during the early years of transition away from a centrally planned economy. In recent years, there have been signs of recovery in some countries, and the livestock sectors, particularly in Poland and Hungary, now present a number of potential trade and investment opportunities. However, this potential depends on the successful implementation of institutional and policy reforms.

Institutional Reform in Russia: What Are the Prospects?
Russia is a key customer for U.S. agricultural exports, especially meats. But the institutions inherited from the Soviet Union make it a relatively high-cost and risky country in which to do business. Western exporters operating in Russia face substantial costs in transporting meat between ports and provincial regions, in obtaining information about agricultural markets, and in enforcing contracts. Unreformed institutions have so far withstood most attempts to alter them.

Changes in Agricultural Markets in Transition Economies

What lessons have we learned from the agricultural reform process in the transition economies?

Changes in Agricultural Markets in Transition Economies
The early years of economic reform in the transition countries of the former Soviet bloc brought about significant declines in agricultural production and consumption and important shifts in the countries' agricultural trade. To a large extent, this output decline has been an inevitable part of market reform. Thus, the main goal of agricultural policy in the transition countries should not be to return output to pre-reform levels but rather to increase the productivity of input use.

EU Enlargement: Negotiations Give Rise to New Issues
Recent developments suggest that the higher prices and income support once eagerly anticipated by Polish producers may not materialize. The EU is insisting on a transition period before Polish farmers become eligible for the full range of EU income support. In addition, Poland supports prices for some commodities at levels higher than EU intervention prices, and Polish prices for these commodities could decline on accession.

Agriculture in Poland and Hungary: Preparing for EU Accession
Although higher prices projected to come with accession could give a boost to Poland's livestock sector, the need to meet strict EU standards and comply with animal welfare regulations will raise production costs and could force some of Poland's smaller farmers out of business.

In addition to the products described here, further information on the transition economies is available in the Russia briefing room.