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Each year, USDA makes 10-year economic projections
of the food and agriculture sector. The commodity
projections are used to forecast farm program costs
and to prepare the President's budget. The projections
reflect a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic
developments and farm policies, and cover major agricultural
commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators
of the U.S. farm sector, such as farm income and food
prices. One key use of the projections is as a "baseline"
from which to analyze the impacts of potential policy
changes affecting U.S. agriculture.
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Improved domestic and international economic growth
after a 2001 through early 2003 slowdown provides
a favorable setting for demand for U.S. agricultural
products during 2004-13. A relatively strong U.S.
dollar, despite declines from a recent peak, and trade
competition are constraining factors on U.S. exports.
Nonetheless, improving economic growth, particularly
in developing countries, provides a foundation for
gains in global consumption and trade, U.S. agricultural
exports, and U.S. farm commodity prices. With domestic
demand for agricultural products also increasing,
market prices and cash receipts rise, which help to
improve the financial condition of the U.S. agricultural
sector.
Stay
Informed
The Economic Research Service plays the lead role in
preparing USDA’s Agricultural Baseline Projections
report, and the agency produces a range of other outlook
products.
Interested in more? Sign up for e-mail
notification of timely ERS releases of new information.
To receive e-mail notification of future Baseline
releases, select Agricultural Market/Trade Projections
from the topics list on the e-mail
updates page. For other outlook products, choose
from the reports listed under Outlook Reports and
Yearbooks. For information on previous USDA
Agricultural Baseline Projections, see the ERS
Baseline briefing room. |
