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The Agricultural Trade Multiplier (ATM) calculator is an interactive tool
that allows users to create their own multipliers by selecting their own basket
of exports and/or changing some of the margins in the ERS
estimates for port-value multipliers to reflect specific or new information
about producer value, transportation costs, and wholesale and retail margins.
Producer Multipliers
For producer-value multipliers,
the ATM calculator enables you to aggregate any combination of open or partially
closed producer multipliers into one "basket" of goods. The calculator will then generate a
weighted-average multiplier for that basket.
For example, if you choose a two-commodity
basket of exports with commodity A having an output multiplier of 2.5 and
commodity B having an output multiplier of 2.1 and commodity A had total exports
of $2 million and commodity B had total exports of $1 million, the calculator would
derive a weighted-average producer multiplier for the basket. To do this,
the calculator multiplies commodity A’s output multiplier (2.5) times the total
export ($2), (2.5 X 2), which equals 5.0. The calculator multiplies commodity
B’s output multiplier (2.1) times the total export ($1), (2.1 X 1), which
equals 2.1. The calculator sums these products (5.0 + 2.1 = 7.1) and then
divides the resulting figure by the sum of the total exports ($2 million + $1 million
= $3 million) or 7.1/3.0 = 2.33. The weighted-average output multiplier for
your hypothetical basket of goods would be 2.33. See Examples
of weighted-average producer multipliers
(an Excel file) for additional examples.
You cannot combine open and partially
closed multipliers in the same calculation. Also, margins cannot
be adjusted on producer-value
multipliers, as explained in the glossary and assumptions.
The weighted-average
multiplier for your basket of goods will be the top line in the "Your model
results" table. The other producer-value multipliers will be the ERS estimates
for the individual commodity categories within that basket. Because the margins
for producer-value multipliers cannot be changed, "your" mutipliers will match the ERS estimates.
Port Multipliers
You can also aggregate open or partially closed port multipliers into a basket
and derive a weighted-average output or employment multiplier for that basket
using the procedure described above. Port multipliers have the added feature
of allowing you to set your own associated margins.
Included in the ERS estimates are the margins associated with
each commodity category at the port at the national level, that is, the
value of each dollar of export generated by the producer of the export, the
transportation
to the port, and the wholesale-and-retail-trade markup. These same margins
are applied to the jobs generated per billion dollars of exports in the employment
multiplier.
If you have specific or new information about the producer value, transportation
costs, and wholesale and retail margins for your basket of goods, you can change
the margins (which are expressed as percentage shares and must add to 1). The
calculator will display the margins associated with the weighted-average ERS
estimate for your basket. You then enter your own margins in Step 2 of the
calculator. Those new margins will be applied to the weighted-average ERS estimate
for your basket, and the calculator will generate a port-value employment and
output multipler for your basket of goods. To calculate a port-value multiplier
for an individual commodity/category, select only that item from the commodity
tree in Step 1.
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