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International baseline projections provided in these tables (xls
format) indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural
crops and meats for selected countries through 2015. These projections
provide foreign country detail supporting the February 2006 USDA
Baseline, USDA Agricultural Baseline
Projections to 2015 (OCE-2006-1).
The 2006 baseline projects growth in the volume of global and
U.S. agricultural trade during the next 10 years, aided by ample
global
supplies and steady demand growth. Longrun demand prospects are
improved by widespread economic growth. In particular, growing
economies
of developing countries provide a foundation for gains in demand
for agricultural products and increases in trade. Broad-based
economic
growth and increasing urbanization lead to diet diversification
in most developing regions, generating increased demand for livestock
products and feeds, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and processed
products. Developing-country import demand is further reinforced
by population growth rates that remain nearly double the growth
rates of developed countries.
International trade in animal products, however, remains heavily
dependent on demand from developed countries and from market access
achieved under existing global trade agreements. Trade is also
affected by disease-related concerns such as bovine spongiform
encephalopathy (BSE), avian influenza (AI), and foot-and-mouth
disease (FMD).
The baseline incorporates the effects of trade agreements and domestic policy
reforms in place or signed by November 2005. Compliance with all bilateral
and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade is
assumed. Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries
are
assumed to continue to evolve along their current path. In particular,
economic and trade reform underway in many developing countries is assumed
to continue. Similarly, the development and use of agricultural technology
and changes in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving.
Baseline projections are a conditional scenario that assumes current U.S. farm legislation (2002 Farm Act) will remain in effect through 2015, there are no shocks to the U.S. or global economies or agricultural sectors, and weather is normal. Specific assumptions also are made for the macroeconomy and other countries’ policies. The projections were prepared in October through December 2005, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis.
Data Files
Wheat supply and use projections,
selected countries
Rice supply and use projections,
selected countries
Corn supply and use projections,
selected countries
Barley supply and use projections,
selected countries
Sorghum supply and use projections,
selected countries
Soybeans supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean oil supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean meal supply and use
projections, selected countries
Cotton (metric tons) supply
and use projections, selected countries
Cotton (bales) supply and
use projections, selected countries
Beef supply and use projections,
selected countries
Pork supply and use projections,
selected countries
Poultry supply and use projections,
selected countries
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