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International baseline projections provided in these tables (xls
format) indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural
crops and meats for selected countries through 2014. These projections
provide foreign country detail supporting the February 2005 USDA
Baseline, USDA Agricultural Baseline
Projections to 2014 (OCE-2005-1).
The 2005 baseline projects growth in the volume of global and U.S.
agricultural trade during the next 10 years, aided by ample global
supplies and steady demand growth. Longrun demand prospects are
improved by widespread economic growth. In particular, the economies
of developing countries provide a foundation for gains in demand
for agricultural products and increases in trade. Broad-based economic
growth and increasing urbanization lead to diet diversification
in most developing regions, generating increased demand for livestock
products and feeds, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and processed
products. Developing-country import demand is further reinforced
by population growth rates that remain nearly double the growth
rates of developed countries. A continuing depreciation of the U.S.
dollar is assumed through 2006.
Policy assumptions underlying both U.S. and foreign projections
are based on full compliance with all bilateral and multilateral
agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade as of November
2004. Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign
countries are assumed to continue to evolve along their current
path. In particular, economic and trade reform underway in many
developing countries is assumed to continue. Additionally, the baseline
incorporates effects of scheduled reforms of the European Union’s
(EU) Common Agricultural Policy.
Baseline projections are a conditional scenario that assumes current
U.S. farm legislation (2002 Farm Act) remains in effect through
2014, no shocks, normal weather, and specific assumptions for the
macroeconomy and foreign country policies. The projections were
prepared in October through December 2004, reflecting a composite
of model results and judgment-based analysis.
Data Files
Wheat supply and use projections,
selected countries
Rice supply and use projections,
selected countries
Corn supply and use projections,
selected countries
Barley supply and use projections,
selected countries
Sorghum supply and use projections,
selected countries
Soybeans supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean oil supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean meal supply and use
projections, selected countries
Cotton (metric tons) supply
and use projections, selected countries
Cotton (bales) supply and
use projections, selected countries
Beef supply and use projections,
selected countries
Pork supply and use projections,
selected countries
Poultry supply and use projections,
selected countries
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