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International baseline projections provided in these tables (xls
format) indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural
crops and meats for selected countries through 2013. These projections
provide foreign country detail supporting the February 2004 USDA
Baseline, USDA Agricultural Baseline
Projections to 2013 (WAOB-2004-1).
The 2004 baseline projects growth in the volume of global and U.S.
agricultural trade during the next 10 years, aided by ample global
supplies and steady demand growth. Longrun demand prospects are
improved by widespread economic recovery after the 2001 through
early 2003 slowdown. In particular, the economies of developing
countries provide a foundation for gains in demand for agricultural
products and increases in trade. Broad-based economic growth and
increasing urbanization lead to diet diversification in most developing
regions, generating increased demand for livestock products and
feeds, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and processed products.
Developing-country import demand is further reinforced by population
growth rates that remain nearly double the growth rates of developed
countries.
Policy assumptions underlying both U.S. and foreign projections
are based on full compliance with all bilateral and multilateral
agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade as of November
2003. The baseline also incorporates effects of scheduled reforms
of the European Union’s (EU) Common Agricultural Policy as well
as effects of the expansion of the EU from 15 to 25 countries on
May 1, 2004. However, although EU enlargement is assumed, the baseline
trade projections show EU-15 and selected CEE country results, rather
than an aggregate for the EU-25, since historical data (with intra-trade
within the EU-25 netted out) were not available.
Baseline projections are a conditional scenario that assumes current
U.S. farm legislation (2002 Farm Act) remains in effect through
2013, no shocks, normal weather, and specific assumptions for the
macroeconomy and foreign country policies. The projections were
prepared in October through December 2003, reflecting a composite
of model results and judgment-based analysis. Projections were completed
prior to the diagnosis of a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy
(BSE) in an adult Holstein cow in Washington State in December 2003.
Data Files
Wheat supply and use projections,
selected countries
Rice supply and use projections,
selected countries
Corn supply and use projections,
selected countries
Barley supply and use projections,
selected countries
Sorghum supply and use projections,
selected countries
Soybeans supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean oil supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean meal supply and
use projections, selected countries
Cotton (metric tons) supply and
use projections, selected countries
Cotton (bales) supply and
use projections, selected countries
Beef supply and use projections,
selected countries
Pork supply and use projections,
selected countries
Poultry supply and use projections,
selected countries
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