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International baseline projections provided in these tables (xls
format) indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural
crops for selected countries through 2011. These projections provide
foreign country detail supporting the February 2002 USDA Baseline,
USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections
to 2011 (WAOB-2002-1).
The 2002 baseline projects growth in the volume of global and U.S.
agricultural trade during the next 10 years, aided by ample global
supplies and steady demand growth. Longrun demand prospects are
improved by widespread economic recovery assumed to start in 2003.
The outlook calls for healthy economic growth in most of Asia, Latin
America, Africa, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union, moderate
gains in developed countries, and continued progress toward freer
trade through ongoing unilateral policy reforms and existing multilateral
agreements.
Policy assumptions underlying both U.S. and foreign projections
are based on full compliance with all bilateral and multilateral
agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade as of October
2001, including the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and the
North American Free Trade Agreement. In contrast, no compliance
is assumed for any agreements not formally ratified by October 2001.
In particular, the baseline assumes no accession to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) by China, Taiwan, or any other country not formally
admitted as of October 2001. Additionally, several potential multilateral
agreements that could have significant impacts on agricultural trade
during the projection period are not reflected in the baseline,
including enlargement of the EU-15 to add one or more Central or
East European countries. Further, the 2002 currency devaluation
and economic crises in Argentina is not included in this baseline.
Baseline projections are a conditional scenario that assumes then-current
U.S. farm legislation (1996 Farm Act) remains in effect through
2011, no shocks, normal weather, and specific assumptions for the
macroeconomy and foreign country policies. The projections were
prepared in October 2001, reflecting a composite of model results
and judgment-based analysis.
Data Files
Wheat supply and use projections,
selected countries
Rice supply and use projections,
selected countries
Corn supply and use projections,
selected countries
Barley supply and use projections,
selected countries
Sorghum supply and use projections,
selected countries
Soybeans supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean oil supply and use
projections, selected countries
Soybean meal supply and use
projections, selected countries
Cotton (metric tons) supply
and use projections, selected countries
Cotton (bales) supply and use
projections, selected countries
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