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International long-term projections provided in these tables (Excel format) indicate supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural crops and meats for selected countries and global totals through 2019. These projections provide foreign country detail supporting the February 2010 USDA long-term projections, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2019 (OCE-2010-1).
The 2010 long-term projections show growth in the volume of global and U.S. agricultural trade during the next 10 years, supported by demand growth. In particular, growing economies of developing countries provide a foundation for gains in demand for agricultural products and increases in trade. Broad-based economic growth and increasing urbanization lead to diet diversification in most developing regions, generating increased demand for livestock products and feeds, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and processed products. Developing-country import demand is further reinforced by population growth rates that remain nearly double the growth rates of developed countries. The projections also reflect a global increase in demand for biofuels and their feedstocks.
Growth in international trade of animal products becomes increasingly dependent on demand from developing countries.
The projections incorporate effects of trade agreements and domestic policy reforms in place or signed by November 2009. Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to evolve along their current path. In particular, economic and trade reform underway in many developing countries is assumed to continue. Similarly, the development and use of agricultural technology and changes in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving.
USDA's long-term projections are a conditional scenario that assumes current U.S. farm legislation (2008 Farm Act) will remain in effect through 2019, there are no shocks to the U.S. or global economies or agricultural sectors, and weather is normal. Specific assumptions also are made for the macroeconomy and other countries' policies. The projections were prepared in October through December 2008, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis.
Commodity Projection Data Files
- Wheat supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Rice supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Corn supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Barley supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Sorghum supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Soybeans supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Soybean oil supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Soybean meal supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Cotton (metric tons) supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Cotton (bales) supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Beef supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Pork supply and use, selected countries and global totals
- Poultry supply and use, selected countries and global totals
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