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The database provides 10-year projections for the
agricultural sector. The current report (from February 2009)
provides long-run agricultural projections through 2018. Long-term
projections cover macroeconomic and farm policy assumptions,
agricultural crop and livestock commodities, farm income,
food prices, and agricultural trade. The database
includes projections for major field crops (corn,
sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton),
and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy). Additional
long-term projections for other data series are available online.
Long-term projections are based on specific assumptions regarding
macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international
developments. The projections assume that there are no shocks
due to abnormal weather or other factors affecting global
supply and demand. Agricultural policy provisions in effect
at the time (currently, the 2008 Farm Act) are assumed to
remain in effect throughout those projections. The projections
are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector
for the next decade. As such, the projections provide a point
of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes
that could result under different assumptions.
Data presented in the February 2009 USDA long-term projections and included
in this database cover historical estimates for 2007 and short-term projections for 2008
from the November 2008 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report,
followed by 10 years of projections for 2009 through
2018. Projections reflect a composite of model results
and judgment-based analysis.
Update Schedule
USDA's long-term projections report is prepared annually and released in February each year.
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