Rural Population and Migration: Trend 3—Amenities Fuel Rapid Population Growth

Rural Population and Migration Briefing Room Trend 1—Harder to Define "Rural" Trend 2—Nonmetro Population Growth Slows Trend 3—Amenities Fuel Rapid Population Growth Trend 4—Natural Decrease on the Rise Trend 5—Diversity Increases in Nonmetro America Trend 6—Challenges From an Aging Population

Scenic and Urban Amenities Fuel Rapid Population Growth in Selected Nonmetro Counties

Along with fluctuations over time, rates of nonmetro population change vary widely by region and county type. The highest absolute population increases were in the South—especially the Southeast—where North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee led the Nation with increases ranging from 111,300 in North Carolina to 59,700 in Tennessee (see table). Several other States—such as Delaware, Nevada, Hawaii, and Arizona—had high percentage increases in nonmetro population on smaller population bases.

Population in nonmetro areas as a whole grew 2.2 percent during 2000-05, but the distribution of growth was highly uneven. Half the Nation's 2,051 nonmetro counties lost population, while the 1,021 nonmetro counties that did increase their population added 1.5 million people. In addition, most of this increase was concentrated in just 204 rapid-growth counties, defined as growing 3 times or more the overall nonmetro rate.

Not only is nonmetro population growth concentrated, it has favored the same types of counties for an extended period. As was the case during the 1990s, rapid-growth counties today are concentrated in the intermountain West and the Southeast, with additional clusters near the upper Great Lakes, in the Missouri Ozarks, along the Gulf Coast, and in Texas.

Even as overall nonmetro population trends fluctuate over time, geographic patterns of rapid population growth remain entrenched, primarily because they are strongly linked with two county characteristics, urban proximity and scenic landscapes.

Urban Proximity

Nearly two-thirds of the nonmetro population now live in counties adjacent to metro areas. For several decades, these counties have consistently shown a higher rate of population growth than those that are not metro adjacent. With greater access to the array of jobs and services typically available in large urban areas, they are better able to retain long-term residents and attract newcomers. The average growth of the metro-adjacent counties was 3 percent from 2000 to 2005, compared with just 0.7 percent in nonadjacent counties. Collectively, adjacent counties saw net inmovement from other parts of the country, whereas the nonadjacent ones have had net outmovement.

The line of counties skirting the southern edge of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area in northeastern Texas typifies rapid nonmetro growth, combining low outmigration with an influx of commuters and other urban residents seeking lower housing costs, access to open space, or other rural amenities. The persistent spread of metro influence into nonmetro territory also can be seen around Minneapolis-Saint Paul, Nashville, San Antonio, and Atlanta, but it is certainly not limited to these cities. Found throughout the country and often given the pejorative label "urban sprawl," metro expansion actually occurs to a great extent in nonmetro counties.

Scenic Landscapes

Spectacular scenery and diverse recreation opportunities have attracted migrants to small towns and cities throughout the Rocky Mountains, the region with the highest concentration of rapid-growth, nonmetro counties. Other areas that attract empty-nesters, retirees, and those with more "footloose" ties to the national economy include the upper Great Lakes, southern Appalachia, the Missouri Ozarks, the Hill Country in central Texas, and central New Hampshire. These and other rural "playgrounds" are likely to attract increasing numbers of Baby Boomers over the next 20 years as that sizable cohort ages toward retirement.

From 2000 to 2005, counties that were active retirement destinations in the 1990s were the fastest growing nonmetro county type (8.3-percent increase). About half of these 277 counties are also classified in the ERS county typology as recreation counties, for many areas with natural attractions draw both retirees and vacationers. The recreation county group grew by 6.5 percent. Growth in both types came primarily from people moving in, rather than from an excess of births over deaths.

Residents in rapid-growth counties face a distinct set of economic development issues and policy choices. In most cases, population growth driven by the pull of natural amenities or urban fringe development contributes to rural well-being, as measured by increased job opportunities, income, reductions in poverty, and improved education and health. Rural policy debates and programs are rightly focused on areas of economic distress and persistent population loss, areas that usually lack the competitive advantages. However, areas with recreation development or increasing urban influence may experience increased land and housing costs, sprawl-like settlement patterns, and traffic congestion. Strains on public finances arise when new service and infrastructure costs outrun increased tax revenues. These impacts vary substantially across the rural landscape, partly depending on the characteristics of new residents and the addition of other factors favoring rapid growth.