The March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami
Japan suffered a severe earthquake on Friday, March 11, 2011, which triggered a large tsunami on the same day. The earthquake affected much of northern Japan, but it was most severe in the eastern half of northern Honshu. The tsunami caused widespread damage along the coasts of several prefectures in the region.
Tables below provide information about agriculture in the prefectures most seriously affected by the natural disasters; about stock estimates for Japan; and about the nature and importance of U.S. agricultural exports to Japan.
The United States imported agricultural products worth $557 million from Japan in 2010, a fraction of the $82 billion in U.S. agricultural imports from all sources. Among the largest categories of agricultural imports from Japan were miscellaneous horticultural products, such as mixed herbal teas, yeasts, and starches (potato, rice, etc.); grain and feeds (baked goods); and crude and natural drugs (enzymes). In addition, the United States imported fishery products worth $236 million from Japan in 2010, 1.6 percent of total U.S. fishery product imports. Frozen processed fish was the leading import of all fishery product imports. Japan is the 12th largest exporter of fish to the United States.
Events are still unfolding, and it is too early to predict the effects of the earthquake and tsunami on international commodity markets and trade.
The earthquake was located in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Miyagi prefecture. Prefectures to the north and south also suffered from the earthquake and resulting tsunami. Data on agricultural output from these prefectures and the relative importance of the region to Japan’s total output are presented in Table 1. The region produces about a fifth of Japan’s staple food, rice. However, the disaster did not strike during the crop season, and the tsunami’s effect would have been felt only on producing areas near the coast. As most rice production is located further inland, only a small portion of the prefectures’ rice area was directly affected.
| Table 1--Agricultural and fishery output of northeast Japan's coastal prefectures |
|
All Japan |
Aomori |
Iwate |
Miyagi |
Fukushima |
Ibaraki |
Sum, coastal prefectures |
Share of total (%) |
| Marine fishery catch, metric tons (2007) |
4,396,826 |
157,844 |
150,434 |
265,619 |
98,716 |
196,566 |
869,179 |
19.8 |
| Marine aquaculture, metric tons (2007) |
1,242,112 |
102,091 |
61,501 |
127,338 |
1,532 |
NA |
292,462 |
23.5 |
| Agricultural output, 100 million yen (2007) |
82,585 |
2,858 |
2,460 |
1,832 |
2,441 |
4,082 |
13,673 |
16.6 |
| Crops output, 100 million yen (2007) |
57,196 |
2,143 |
1,196 |
1,178 |
1,909 |
2,955 |
9,381 |
16.4 |
| Vegetables, 100 million yen (2007) |
20,893 |
680 |
276 |
273 |
551 |
1,538 |
3,318 |
15.9 |
| Rice, metric tons (2008) |
8,823,000 |
300,600 |
304,500 |
377,900 |
438,200 |
421,600 |
1,842,800 |
20.9 |
| Soybeans, metric tons (2007) |
261,700 |
6,720 |
6,130 |
16,800 |
4,860 |
7,190 |
41,700 |
15.9 |
| Livestock & products, 100 million yen (2007) |
24,787 |
714 |
1,265 |
651 |
525 |
1,058 |
4,213 |
17.0 |
| Dairy cattle, head (2008) |
1,533,000 |
15,100 |
50,700 |
26,100 |
19,500 |
32,200 |
143,600 |
9.4 |
| Beef cattle, head (2008) |
2,890,000 |
60,200 |
112,400 |
96,900 |
83,400 |
57,700 |
410,600 |
14.2 |
| Pigs, head (2008) |
9,745,000 |
402,800 |
425,400 |
221,800 |
200,400 |
631,700 |
1,882,100 |
19.3 |
| Layers, 1,000 chickens (2008) |
184,773 |
5,884 |
5,026 |
5,236 |
5,779 |
12,259 |
34,184 |
18.5 |
| Broiler shipments, 1,000 chickens (2008) |
629,766 |
38,228 |
98,668 |
11,074 |
6,120 |
6,540 |
160,630 |
25.5 |
Notes: NA= not applicable.
Source: Statistical Yearbook of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan, 2008-2009 |
Japan has commercial and government stocks throughout the year. The estimates in the following table are of stocks at the beginning of the current marketing year. Note that rice stocks are high in proportion to consumption—enough to feed the country for 2-3 months.
| Table 2--Japan's stocks, current marketing year |
|
Stocks at start of marketing year |
|
|
|
|
Consumption |
Stocks/consumption |
Market year begins |
|
1,000 metric tons |
Percent |
|
| Rice |
2,693 |
8,125 |
33 |
Nov. 2010 |
| Wheat |
1,312 |
5,850 |
22 |
Jul. 2010 |
| Barley |
439 |
1,550 |
28 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Sorghum |
117 |
1,600 |
7 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Soybeans |
89 |
3,692 |
2 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Canola |
80 |
2,196 |
4 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Canola oil |
14 |
908 |
2 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Soy oil |
9 |
485 |
2 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Soy meal |
286 |
4,004 |
7 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Rapeseed meal |
15 |
1,359 |
1 |
Oct. 2010 |
| Beef |
119 |
1,207 |
10 |
Jan. 2011 |
| Pork |
217 |
2,437 |
9 |
Jan. 2011 |
| Broiler meat |
116 |
2,020 |
6 |
Jan. 2011 |
| Nonfat dry milk |
58 |
182 |
32 |
Jan. 2011 |
Notes: from USDA's Production, Supply and Disappearance database, accessed 3/17/11. http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx
New estimates have been suggested in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Annual Grain and Feed Report on Japan: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Tokyo_Japan_3-10-2011.pdf and in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Semiannual Livestock and Products Report for Japan: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Livestock%20and%20Products%20Semi-annual_Tokyo_Japan_3-4-2011.pdf |
Japan relies heavily on imports for some foods and for the great majority of its animal feeds, and the United States is Japan’s largest foreign supplier. Table 3 shows recent agricultural import levels in Japan and the share that came from the U.S.
| Table 3--Agricultural imports of Japan, calendar year |
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
|
Metric tons |
| Pork |
Total |
817,691 |
702,938 |
753,027 |
|
From U.S. |
336,913 |
288,667 |
298,347 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
41 |
41 |
40 |
| Beef |
Total |
458,024 |
481,136 |
499,531 |
|
From U.S. |
54,109 |
69,192 |
91,618 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
12 |
14 |
18 |
| Poultry meat and offal |
Total |
433,635 |
336,934 |
424,543 |
|
From U.S. |
24,663 |
18,810 |
35,059 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
6 |
6 |
8 |
| Corn |
Total |
16,458,445 |
16,292,191 |
16,196,161 |
|
From U.S. |
16,277,188 |
15,271,110 |
14,379,771 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
99 |
94 |
89 |
| Wheat |
Total |
5,780,711 |
4,702,565 |
5,475,586 |
|
From U.S. |
3,658,265 |
2,839,897 |
3,305,142 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
63 |
60 |
60 |
| Soybeans |
Total |
3,711,043 |
3,389,580 |
3,449,453 |
|
From U.S. |
2,728,498 |
2,412,472 |
2,464,541 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
74 |
71 |
71 |
| Hay and alfalfa meal/pellets |
Total |
2,418,581 |
2,319,058 |
2,352,121 |
|
From U.S. |
1,674,577 |
1,616,793 |
1,689,045 |
|
U.S. share (%) |
69 |
70 |
72 |
| Sources: Reports from FAS/USDA and Japan's Import statistics, reported in the World Trade Atlas. |
Overall, Japan was the 4th largest destination for U.S. agricultural exports in 2010. Japan is the top destination for U.S. exports of corn and pork. It is also the second largest for wheat and the third largest for soybeans and beef.
| Table 4--Japan's importance to major U.S. agricultural exports |
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Product |
Partner * |
Metric tons |
| Corn |
World Total |
53,737,407 |
47,501,791 |
50,735,249 |
|
Japan |
15,121,468 |
15,130,892 |
15,491,268 |
|
Mexico |
9,152,530 |
7,159,794 |
7,891,936 |
|
Korea, South |
7,909,635 |
6,039,770 |
7,004,990 |
|
Egypt |
2,438,333 |
2,272,827 |
3,614,659 |
| Soybeans |
World Total |
33,816,448 |
40,372,076 |
42,324,568 |
|
China |
16,512,163 |
22,817,676 |
24,343,197 |
|
Mexico |
3,550,054 |
3,281,264 |
3,586,832 |
|
Japan |
2,814,529 |
2,501,086 |
2,551,119 |
|
Indonesia |
1,257,138 |
1,483,650 |
1,849,843 |
| Wheat, unmilled |
World Total |
30,020,862 |
21,919,981 |
27,592,015 |
|
Nigeria |
2,607,341 |
2,935,188 |
3,381,095 |
|
Japan |
3,629,462 |
3,035,944 |
3,169,721 |
|
Mexico |
2,804,365 |
1,921,255 |
2,433,924 |
|
Philippines |
1,775,074 |
1,261,834 |
1,721,657 |
| Pork |
World Total |
1,566,814 |
1,397,873 |
1,437,071 |
|
Japan |
425,313 |
400,456 |
403,238 |
|
Mexico |
248,835 |
331,704 |
384,124 |
|
Canada |
160,595 |
154,146 |
162,957 |
|
Korea, South |
98,026 |
88,545 |
73,023 |
| Beef |
World Total |
658,950 |
636,021 |
759,370 |
|
Mexico |
242,529 |
201,770 |
159,951 |
|
Canada |
141,712 |
130,625 |
139,746 |
|
Japan |
69,271 |
81,264 |
105,346 |
|
Korea, South |
53,738 |
52,511 |
101,816 |
Notes: Data are for calendar years.
* After World Total, this column lists the top 4 U.S. trading partners for each product.
Data Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics. Data generated on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 9:32:25 AM EST. |
The top agricultural and related commodities exported from the U.S. to Japan in 2010 were grains and oilseeds, meats and fish, tobacco products, frozen potatoes, and hay. The value and volume of these commodities are presented in table 5.
| Table 5--Largest U.S. agricultural and related exports to Japan |
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Rank, 2010 |
Product |
1,000 US$ |
Metric tons |
1,000 US$ |
Metric tons |
1,000 US$ |
Metric tons |
| 1 |
Corn |
3,828,567 |
15,121,468 |
2,795,649 |
15,130,892 |
3,018,443 |
15,491,268 |
| 2 |
Pork, fr/froz |
1,470,577 |
419,089 |
1,463,650 |
391,757 |
1,551,922 |
391,043 |
| 3 |
Soybeans |
1,356,365 |
2,814,529 |
1,083,422 |
2,501,086 |
1,124,878 |
2,551,119 |
| 4 |
Other feeds & fodder |
808,336 |
2,346,875 |
830,602 |
2,291,548 |
854,391 |
2,190,075 |
| 5 |
Wheat, unmilled |
1,606,028 |
3,629,462 |
798,077 |
3,035,944 |
794,511 |
3,169,721 |
| 6 |
Beef & veal fr/froz |
354,366 |
69,271 |
411,188 |
81,264 |
545,783 |
105,133 |
| 7 |
Fish, fr/prep |
431,578 |
188,946 |
446,390 |
175,952 |
501,249 |
192,534 |
| 8 |
Tobacco - mfg |
599,622 |
NA |
347,065 |
NA |
312,512 |
NA |
| 9 |
Potatoes, froz |
248,147 |
279,012 |
280,701 |
291,636 |
303,911 |
290,229 |
| 10 |
Rice |
167,293 |
274,338 |
421,712 |
400,453 |
232,210 |
317,233 |
|
Other products |
4,254,033 |
NA |
3,512,354 |
NA |
3,884,921 |
NA |
|
Grand total |
15,124,913 |
NA |
12,390,808 |
NA |
13,124,730 |
NA |
Notes: NA= not applicable.
Data Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics. Data generated on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 9:38:17 AM EST. |
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