Q. What are the main challenges to sustainable resource
use and global food security?
A. World population
reached 6 billion in mid-1999. About half the world's
people live in Asia, but population is growing most rapidly
in Africa and the Middle East. The State of World Population
reported in 1998 that the rate of world population growth
has now slowed to 1.4 percent per year, with a projected
world population of between 7.7 billion and 11.1 billion
people by 2050, with 9.4 billion considered the most likely.
Urban populations are growing at a disproportionate rate
in all regions. Also, as the "baby boom" generation comes
of age, the ratio of people of working age (15-64) for
every dependant under 15 or over 65 is expected to increase
to 1.9 in 2010, after which it is expected to fall, reaching
1.4 in 2050, as populations age.
Changes in income are also critical
for future patterns of resource use and food security. Recent rapid
income growth in East Asia and the Pacific has been associated with
rapid growth in demand for food, especially for meat and other higher-value
food products. It remains to be seen how the current economic slowdown
in that region and elsewhere will affect longer-term growth in pressure
on resources in the production of agricultural commodities.
Increases in population and income will both affect
and be affected by global changes in land use, climate,
water, and genetic resources. The nature of the relationship
between rising incomes and resource conditions will vary
by resource as well as income level. For example, the
World Bank reports that increases in income are generally
associated with improvement in water quality, with initial
deterioration and subsequent improvement in air quality,
and with deterioration in terms of waste and CO2 emissions
(World Bank, 1992).
An important dimension of the relationship between population
growth and income growth on the one hand and sustainable resource
use and food security on the other has to do with the ways in which
resources are held. Property institutions determine who has what
rights to use resources in various ways. When resource use patterns
raise tradeoffs between local and global interests, between public
and private decisions, between economic and environmental concerns,
or between short- and long-term objectives, policy plays a critical
role in determining how these tradeoffs are balanced.
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