Q. How does the change in farm numbers vary by farm size?
A. The number of farms continues to
trend downward, but at a much slower rate than during
the 1940s through the 1960s. The rate and direction of
changes in farm numbers vary by size of farm, generally
measured by acreage class. Census of agriculture data
show that the number of farms with 500 or more acres increased
from the 1880s until the 1960s, when the count stabilized.
In contrast, midsize farms (50-499 acres) declined each
census from 1935 to 1997, while farms with 1 to 49 acres
ended their period of rapid decline by 1974. This means
that farms with fewer than 50 acres and farms with more
than 500 acres increased their share of total farms since
the mid-1970s, while midsize farms' share fell.
Counts of farms by constant dollar sales class—available from
1982 onward—are consistent with the conclusions based on acreage
classes. The number of large farms (sales of $250,000) increased
each census from 1982 to 1997, with most of the increase occurring
among farms with sales greater than $500,000. Farms with sales less
than $10,000 also experienced a large increase between the 1992
and 1997 censuses and now account for half of U.S. farms. Most of
the 1992-97 increase in farms with sales less than $10,000, however,
resulted from expanding the farm count to include operations with
all their cropland in the Conservation Reserve or Wetlands Reserve
Programs (CRP or WRP).
More detail about the change in the number of farms follows. All
data presented here are based on data from various years of the
census of agriculture.
Longrun Trends, 1850 to 1997
The number of farms declined
dramatically after its peak of nearly 7 million in 1935, with most
of the decline occurring during the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. The
decline in farm numbers still continues, but at a slower pace. By
1997, 1.9 million farms remained. Because the amount of farmland
did not decrease as much as the number of farms, the remaining farms
have a larger average acreage. Note that some of the decline in
farm numbers reflects the nine changes made to the farm definition
since 1850. The current farm definition—any
place normally selling at least $1,000 of farm products—has
been used in census of agriculture data since the 1974 census (U.S.
Department of Agriculture, 1999, p. VII).
The trend in the number of farms differs by acreage
class. The number of farms with at least 500 acres increased
steadily from 1880 through the 1960s, before stabilizing at 350,000
to 370,000 farms. Farms with 1 to 49 acres declined from 2.7 million
in 1935 to about half a million in 1974. After 1974, the count of
these farms has ranged between 540,000 and 640,000. In contrast,
the number of farms with 50-499 acres declined to about 1 million
farms in 1997 from 3.9 million in 1935 . As a result of these changes,
farms with fewer than 50 acres and farms with more than 500 acres
have both increased their share of total farms since 1974, but midsized
farms' share has declined.
Change by Sales Class, 1982 to 1997
Farm size is generally measured in acres when tracking changes in
farm size over long periods of time; estimates of the number of
farms and land in farms are available back to the 1850 Census of
Agriculture, and the distribution of farms by acreage class is available
back to the 1880 census. Nevertheless, the level of sales of farm
products is a better indicator of farm size, since it unambiguously
measures economic activity in dollars. In contrast, farm acreage
just measures land use, with no indication of the value of what
is actually produced. The number of acres necessary to produce a
given dollar amount of farm products varies with the characteristics
of the land and the value of the products produced. Thus, not all
farms that are large in acreage have high sales. For example, most
farms with more than
500 acres in 1997 were not classified as large farms, defined
by the National Commission on Small Farms (1998) as farms with sales
of $250,000 or more.
Changes in the distribution of farms by sales class in the last
four censuses can be compared across time by using the producer
price index for farm products to adjust for price changes. Unfortunately,
constant-dollar sales classes cannot be prepared before 1982, due
to incomplete census records for individual farms prior to that
year. Sales classes in the reports published after each census cannot
be compared over time, because the reports express sales in current
dollars. Thus, sales classes in the 1982 census publications are
expressed in 1982 dollars, sales classes in the 1987 census publications
are expressed in 1987 dollars, etc. There is less of a measurement
problem when comparing acreage data between censuses, because the
area in an acre (160 square rods) does not change.
Only one sales class grew consistently over the 16-year period
(farms by sales
class). Large farms steadily increased their numbers by 53,000,
growing from 104,000 in 1982 to 157,000 by 1997. The share of all
farms in this group also grew, from 5 percent to 8 percent over
the same period. Most farms in the large and very large farm group
had sales between $250,000 and $499,999, but the number of farms
grew more rapidly for the very large farms with sales of $500,000
or more (change by sales class).
The number of farms in the other sales classes declined in each
intercensus period, with the exception of farms with sales less
than $10,000 (farms
by sales class). The number of farms in this sales class declined
from 1982 to 1987 and from 1987 to 1992, but increased from 1992
to 1997. Most of the 1992-1997 increase occurred among "point
farms," or farms with sales less than $1,000 (change
by sales class) that might normally have sales of at least $1,000
and satisfy the criteria necessary to be considered a farm. Because
of this growth, farms with sales less than $10,000 accounted for
half of all U.S. farms in 1997 (farms
by sales class).
Most of the increase in point farms, however, is due to a change
in the classification of farms with all their cropland in the CRP
or WRP. In 1992; operations which placed all of their cropland in
the CRP or WRP and did not otherwise meet the farm definition based
upon sales, livestock, inventories, planted crops, or other criteria
for potential sales were not included as farms in the census tabulations
(U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1994, p. B-1.) In 1997, such CRP/WRP
operations were classified as farms (U.S. Department of Agriculture,
1999, p. A-2), and they were counted as point farms. There were
66,716 of these CRP/WRP establishments in 1992. When these farms
are added to the 1992 count of point farms to be consistent with
the 1997 census, the 1992-97 change in the number of point farms
shifts from a gain of 30 percent (change
by sales class) to a loss of 1 percent. In addition, the 9-percent
increase in the number of farms with sales less than $10,000 decreases
to 2 percent.
References
U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics
Service. 1997 Census of Agriculture, Vol. 1: Geographic Area Series,
Part 51: United States Summary and State Data,. AC97-A-51. March
1999.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Commission on Small Farms.
A Time to Act: A Report of the USDA National Commission on Small
Farms. Miscellaneous Publication 1545 (MP-1545), Jan. 1998.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1992 Census
of Agriculture, Vol. 1: Geographic Area Series, Part 51: United
States Summary and State Data. AC92-A-51. October 1994.
|
