| Table 1--Farm Business Average Net Cash Income Forecasts 1/ |
Size/
region/
specialty |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011f |
2008/
2007 |
2009/
2008 |
2010/
2009 |
2011f/
2010 |
Share
of
U.S.
farms
or
busi-
nesses |
| 11/16/2011 |
$1,000 per farm |
Percent |
| Farm Size: |
| Commercial farms |
230.8 |
205.2 |
180.9 |
221.8 |
259.3 |
-11.1 |
-11.8 |
22.6 |
16.9 |
12.0 |
| Intermediate farms |
5.5 |
5.3 |
4.1 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
-3.6 |
-22.6 |
61.0 |
13.6 |
28.2 |
| |
All farm businesses 2/ |
77.7 |
68.9 |
60.6 |
71.0 |
82.8 |
-11.3 |
-12.0 |
17.2 |
16.6 |
40.2 |
| Rural residence farms |
-3.9 |
-3.9 |
-3.5 |
-2.2 |
-2.5 |
0.0 |
-10.3 |
-37.1 |
-13.6 |
59.8 |
| |
All farms |
26.2 |
24.5 |
21.3 |
27.2 |
31.8 |
-6.5 |
-13.1 |
27.7 |
16.9 |
100.0 |
| All family farms 3/ |
21.1 |
21.4 |
18.5 |
23.2 |
27.7 |
1.4 |
-13.6 |
25.4 |
19.4 |
97.7 |
| Resource region: 2/ |
| Heartland |
99.8 |
97.4 |
93.4 |
92.4 |
112.3 |
-2.4 |
-4.1 |
-1.1 |
21.5 |
23.9 |
| Northern Crescent |
55.7 |
62.3 |
47.0 |
53.9 |
66.9 |
11.8 |
-24.6 |
14.7 |
24.1 |
14.2 |
| Northern Great Plains |
77.6 |
87.4 |
76.7 |
119.1 |
132.7 |
12.6 |
-12.2 |
55.3 |
11.4 |
5.6 |
| Prairie Gateway |
73.2 |
46.8 |
44.4 |
58.4 |
70.6 |
-36.1 |
-5.1 |
31.5 |
20.9 |
13.9 |
| Eastern Uplands |
24.9 |
10.8 |
12.6 |
7.7 |
9.0 |
-56.6 |
16.7 |
-38.9 |
16.9 |
12.2 |
| Southern Seaboard |
50.4 |
36.9 |
30.5 |
34.3 |
33.6 |
-26.8 |
-17.3 |
12.5 |
-2.0 |
10.9 |
| Fruitful Rim |
151.2 |
130.3 |
103.0 |
142.2 |
159.9 |
-13.8 |
-21.0 |
38.1 |
12.4 |
12.1 |
| Basin and Range |
33.5 |
52.7 |
21.8 |
47.0 |
54.3 |
57.3 |
-58.6 |
115.6 |
15.5 |
4.4 |
| Mississippi Portal |
85.9 |
76.7 |
99.6 |
92.3 |
99.1 |
-10.7 |
29.9 |
-7.3 |
7.4 |
2.7 |
| Commodity specialization: 2/ |
| Program crops-- |
| Mixed grain |
97.4 |
127.9 |
116.4 |
132.5 |
156.3 |
31.3 |
-9.0 |
13.8 |
18.0 |
5.2 |
| Wheat |
59.1 |
56.3 |
73.5 |
108.2 |
112.8 |
-4.7 |
30.6 |
47.2 |
4.3 |
2.2 |
| Corn |
115.2 |
142.6 |
128.2 |
126.9 |
150.5 |
23.8 |
-10.1 |
-1.0 |
18.6 |
11.9 |
| Soybeans and peanuts |
58.0 |
64.5 |
82.3 |
84.9 |
99.5 |
11.2 |
27.6 |
3.2 |
17.2 |
4.9 |
| Cotton and rice |
150.4 |
218.6 |
179.8 |
245.6 |
258.3 |
45.3 |
-17.7 |
36.6 |
5.2 |
1.4 |
| Non-program crops-- |
| Other field crops |
33.0 |
37.0 |
26.7 |
24.3 |
23.4 |
12.1 |
-27.8 |
-9.0 |
-3.7 |
15.6 |
| Specialty crops |
180.1 |
135.0 |
139.6 |
152.1 |
158.6 |
-25.0 |
3.4 |
9.0 |
4.3 |
9.1 |
| Livestock-- |
| Beef cattle |
28.1 |
14.8 |
16.9 |
22.3 |
26.9 |
-47.3 |
14.2 |
32.0 |
20.6 |
27.3 |
| Hogs |
240.9 |
97.7 |
170.6 |
306.9 |
376.4 |
-59.4 |
74.6 |
79.9 |
22.6 |
1.5 |
| Poultry |
139.9 |
75.2 |
78.3 |
93.4 |
76.8 |
-46.2 |
4.1 |
19.3 |
-17.8 |
3.4 |
| Dairy |
190.6 |
151.9 |
70.1 |
158.1 |
249.2 |
-20.3 |
-53.9 |
125.5 |
57.6 |
5.1 |
| Other livestock |
4.5 |
12.8 |
-4.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.2 |
184.4 |
-132.8 |
-69.0 |
7.7 |
12.2 |
| f = forecast. |
| 1/ The farm level forecasts are derived from partial budget modeling on the 2010 ARMS using parameters from the sector forecasts. The model is static and therefore does not account for changes in crop rotation, weather, and other local production impacts that occurred after the base year. |
| 2/ Commercial and intermediate farms; including non-family farms. |
| 3/ Excludes farms run by hired managers and operations organized as cooperatives, non-family corporations, estates, and trusts. |
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